Josh Allen's Advanced Metrics Emphasize Dominant Performance in Houston

The Buffalo Bills kicked off their 2026 season with a statement win over the Texans, scoring 36 points on the highly touted Houston defense.

The team's success on offense largely stemmed from another special Josh Allen performance, where he accomplished things that most QBs could only dream of doing against the Texans.

Allen's advanced analytics from Sunday's victory illustrate the dominant performance he had in Week 1.

Going deep vs. Texans

Sep 13, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver DJ Moore (2) makes a catch during the second quarter against the Houston Texans at Reliant Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

According to ESPN, Allen tied his career-high with 11 completions of more than 10 air yards, going 11 for 15 for 286 yards and two touchdowns on those throws.

Allen's average depth of target was 12.8 yards, which ranks in the 96th percentile of QBs in a game since 2010.

Ten of those 11 completions were "explosive passes", meaning they were passes of 15 yards or more. Houston didn't allow more than eight in a single game last season.

Adding these explosive passes with Buffalo's two "explosive runs" of 12 or more yards (one of which was Allen's 21 yard touchdown run), and the Bills generated an absurd 21.2% explosive play rate, by far the worst percentage allowed by Houston under Demeco Ryans.

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— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) September 14, 2026

Unexpected Expected Points Added

Allen had a rare day in terms of Expected Points Added (EPA) as well.

His total EPA of 15.9 ranks 89th percentile, while his 0.39 EPA/play is in the 88th percentile.

According to Brady Penn, Allen had the best season-opening performance against the top rated EPA defense from the previous year in NFL history. His 0.39 EPA/play has a sizeable lead on Drew Brees's 0.27 EPA/play against the Packers in 2011, which is second all-time.

Improbable completions

Allen and the Bills accounted for three of Week 1's most improbable completions, per Next Gen Stats.

Allen's 38 yard completion to Dalton Kincaid, thrown from his own endzone, was the most improbable catch of the weekend, with just a 9.4% completion probability.

Joshua Palmer's game-winning touchdown ranks 13th this week at a 29% completion probability, and DJ Moore's sideline catch and run for a touchdown ranks 20th at 32%.

Sep 13, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs off the field after the game against the Houston Texans at Reliant Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

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