Broncos vs. Chiefs: Three Bold Predictions for Patrick Mahomes’s Return From Knee Injury

Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season will come to a close on Monday night, as the Chiefs are set to welcome the Broncos to Arrowhead Stadium for an AFC West matchup.

For the Broncos, this is their first meaningful game since their loss to the Patriots in last January’s AFC championship. The Broncos were without Bo Nix in that one after he sustained a broken ankle the week prior, but the third-year quarterback is now back and fully healthy as he looks to lead his squad to the postseason for a third consecutive season.

On the opposite sideline for this one will be quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who is also returning from a season-ending injury on Monday night. The 30-year-old tore his ACL and LCL in Week 15 of Kansas City’s disappointing 2025 campaign, and after an offseason of rehab, is looking to bring the Chiefs back to their Super Bowl–winning form.

We’re in for a good one on Monday night. Here are three bold predictions for Broncos vs. Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes will throw for 250-plus yards and commit zero turnovers in return

I promise we’ll steer away from quarterback talk in just a second here, but frankly, it’s hard not to focus on a two-time league MVP’s return to the playing field. Mahomes spoke about his comeback late last week and explained that he doesn’t expect to have any limitations on Monday night.

“You’ve got to go out there and be yourself,” he said. “I’ve built up the strength [in my knee] and built up all the days of rehab so that I can be myself. I’m going to keep myself out of harm’s way—like I always will—not trying to take big hits, but I’m a competitor. I signed up for this and I’m going to go out there and play football. That’s how I’ve always rolled, no matter what it is.”

MORE: MMQB Week 1 staff picks

Mahomes holds the NFL record for the most passing yards per game with 282.2, and even amid a down year in 2025, he still threw for 250 or more 10 times. Heading into 2026, he has a familiar face in the room helping design the offense alongside Andy Reid. Eric Bieniemy has returned to the OC post he held from 2018 to ’22, giving Mahomes yet another resource to lean on as he works his way back into the fold.

All that said, I’m predicting that Mahomes will not only cross the 250-passing-yard mark against the daunting Broncos defense, but also avoid committing a turnover in his first game back. It’s a tall task, but if a three-time Super Bowl champion says he feels like himself, who am I to doubt him?

Jaylen Waddle will record double-digit catches in Broncos debut

The Broncos traded for wide receiver Jaylen Waddle from the Dolphins in mid-March, and sent a package that centered around their 2026 first-round pick to do so—which should suggest they have big plans for the 27-year-old. Fans got an early taste of the Nix-to-Waddle connection in the preseason.

Welcome to Denver, @D1__JW‼️

📺: 9NEWS pic.twitter.com/qvxiByZBAl
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) August 22, 2026

Waddle logged double-digit receptions in just four games throughout his first five seasons, with three of them coming during his rookie year. And, while Nix has shown a knack for spreading the ball around—targeting five different pass catchers over 50 times last season, with Pat Bryant finishing just behind that mark with 49—it wouldn’t surprise me if coach Sean Payton and offensive coordinator Davis Webb try to get Waddle going early and often.

That’s why, despite the numbers suggesting otherwise, I’m predicting that Waddle will haul in 10-plus catches in his Broncos debut.

Chiefs will win a back-and-forth barn burner on a last-second Harrison Butker field goal

The Broncos beat the Chiefs twice last season on their way to earning the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs. Only one of those wins, however, came against Mahomes—who was sidelined for Denver’s Week 17 victory.

Mahomes has dominated the Broncos throughout his career, posting a whopping 13–2 record against them and a perfect 7–0 mark at home. Denver, of course, has drastically improved since its three consecutive last-place AFC West finishes from 2020 to ’22—but there’s something about this prime-time matchup at Arrowhead that makes me hesitant to pick against Kansas City.

I’m predicting this one to be a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair that ends with a last-second field goal from Harrison Butker. The Chiefs win, 31–28, and start the 2026 season 1–0.

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