Broncos Front 7 Needs: Analytics Reveal the Ideal Draft & FA Strategy

The Denver Broncos have cap space and an NFL draft war chest, but what's the best path to finding reinforcements at linebacker and the defensive line?

Sep 14, 2024; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators linebacker Shemar James (6) gestures before the snap against the Texas A&M Aggies during the first half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. / Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos were lacking playmakers on offense in 2024. Therefore, most analysts and media members are focusing their attention on improving that side of the ball.

The Broncos defense needs some help, too. There's always an argument about how NFL teams should build their roster.

How can the Broncos improve that side of the ball using a combination of free agency and the draft, specifically at inside linebacker and the defensive line? Is it typically better to use the draft or free agency/trade to get production right away for these positions?

Like my article on the offense, analytics provide the answers on defense as well.

For this analysis, I examined 22 seasons worth of data, isolated players who started at least 60% of their games in their first three seasons (to remove fringe players who didn’t last in the NFL), and players who played for more than one team. I also removed any age groups with fewer than 10 players to analyze.

Let's start at linebacker.

Inside Linebacker

The Broncos will likely have a completely different inside linebacker room than in 2024. They fired inside linebackers coach Greg Manusky, the two starters (Justin Strnad and Cody Barton) are unrestricted free agents, and Alex Singleton is attempting a comeback from an ACL tear.

Before the Broncos even get to free agency, they must answer two questions: will Drew Sanders move back to inside linebacker, and will Levelle Bailey develop into a starter? Those are big questions, and to hedge its bets, the franchise should bring in at least one more linebacker who can make an impact in 2025. Should they draft one or sign one?

Although linebackers tend to start a high percentage of their games early in their careers, then begin to trend downward at 26 years old, their performance is at its highest at age 29 and 30, then a high peak at 33. The Broncos could afford to go after a linebacker in free agency even if said linebacker is 29 years old. Based on the analysis, they could dip into the draft for good measure.

See the graph below.

Linebacker age graph. / Thomas Hall/Denver Broncos On SI

What it Means

There are a slew of off-ball linebackers available in free agency this offseason including those who are ready to have some of the best seasons of their career. It would behoove the Broncos to add more talent to this position group to see improvement in a defense that was exposed in the playoffs. 

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Defensive Line

When it comes to the defensive line, the Broncos may not have many options. There are only a few unrestricted free agents who fit the bill.

Defensive linemen who have changed teams typically have their best season at 26 years old. There are only a handful of those players available this offseason. If the Broncos want to take a gamble on an older option, it could pay off. It would be a risk, but defensive linemen do have another peak in performance at 32 years old.

It takes time for a defensive lineman to develop but a good one can start a high percentage of their games early and they can perform at a high level at 24 years old. 

See the graph below.

Defensive line age graph. / Thomas Hall/Denver Broncos On SI

What it Means

The Broncos need to take a shot at a defensive lineman regardless of how they intend to target that need. D.J. Jones is likely to walk in free agency, and the Broncos' short-term replacement could be Malcolm Roach.

As mentioned in the previous linked article, Eyioma Uwazurike could be the long term answer. Either way, the Broncos will need a new starter in the middle of the defensive line. 

The Takeaway

The Broncos can ill-afford another playoff showing like they had versus the Buffalo Bills. The Broncos were gashed in the run game, and that was mainly laid at the feet of the front seven.

The Broncos need an impact player at the inside linebacker position and a solid space-eater in the middle of the defensive line if they want to go further than the Wildcard Round of the playoffs. 

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