The Case Against the Broncos Repeating as AFC West Champs

The Denver Broncos stunned the NFL last season by winning 14 games, dethroning the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West, and earning the No. 1 playoff seed in the conference. Bo Nix only added to the NFL's shock by vanquishing Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in a 33-30 overtime playoff win.

Suffice it to say, the Broncos aren't sneaking up on anyone this year. Sean Payton's team has the NFL's full attention.

The 2026 season will be quite the litmus test for the Broncos, as they'll not only face a first-place schedule, but also the entire AFC East and NFC West, two divisions that birthed five playoff teams last year. Then again, this isn't the 2017-2022 Broncos; this is Payton's team, led by Nix, and featuring one of the deepest rosters in the NFL.

Still, many folks around the NFL are unsure of whether the Broncos are built to last as the 800-pound gorilla atop the divisional mountain — the target all comers will be swinging at with all their might. There are plenty of arguments for why the Broncos could repeat as AFC West champions, but NFL Media's Kevin Patra also has one for why Payton's squad could take a step back in 2026.

It mostly boils down to Nix and his health and availability.

"We saw what happened when Nix was out. The offense floundered in the playoff loss to New England," Patra wrote. "If Nix suffers a setback or is knocked out for a significant stretch, the Broncos will struggle to maintain their grip on the AFC West. You could say the same for nearly every team in the league, but the drop-off from Nix to is significant enough for Denver to plummet in a stiff division if the starter misses time."

An Unconvincing Argument

Bo Nix and Shaq Thompson — Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) is tackled by Buffalo Bills linebacker Shaq Thompson (45). | Dustin Bradford / IMAGO / Icon Sportswire

Meh. Patra's argument collapsed in on itself by his own hand. Very few teams can survive the loss or long absence of their franchise quarterback.

The Broncos want to bake as much certainty into their backup quarterback situation as is possible this summer, which is why they're making it an open competition between Jarrett Stidham and Sam Ehlinger. But as John Elway once said, in response to whether there was any 'Plan B' to the Peyton Manning signing back in 2012, given his four neck surgeries, "We're going with Plan A."

Nix is the plan. The Broncos need contingencies, but they're not planning their season around the what-ifs of Nix potentially getting hurt.

After all, since entering the league, Nix has started all 34 regular-season games and both playoff games he's been healthy for. The AFC championship game was the first missed start of his young career, though it was a doozy.

Yes, Nix is coming off ankle surgery, but the Broncos' situation is not unique in its vulnerability if something happens to their starting quarterback. The real question is whether Nix's ankle will hold up to the war of attrition that is the 17-game NFL schedule.

He's confident that it will because his doctors are. Although it's the third time he's suffered such an injury to his right ankle, Nix feels like the two surgeries he underwent in the offseason, combined with his vigorous rehab, will make it as "good as new."

"Now they tell me—I didn’t get in there and look at it—but the doctors told me that the ankle looks good as new," Nix said last week after debuting at Broncos minicamp. "We’re right back to normal. So once the progression of the rehab comes and goes after you wait your due diligence and wait patiently and get through it, it should feel great.”

Nix is almost through that due diligence part. Payton said he expects Nix to be fully cleared by the end of June, which will be well in time for training camp's July 28 start.

Other Factors to the Argument

Tyler Onyedim. — Denver Broncos rookie defensive lineman Tyler Onyedim runs a drill at rookie minicamp | Ben Swanson / Denver Broncos

Patra's argument against the Broncos winning the AFC West again also includes a point about the loss of John Franklin-Myers on the defensive line. But the drafting of Tyler Onyedim, combined with the considerable D-line depth the Broncos have, should offset JFM's departure.

Lastly, Patra points to the untested Davis Webb. As the Broncos' new offensive coordinator, this will be Webb's first year as primary play-caller in the NFL, and the truth is, nobody knows how it's going to shake out, but Payton has the utmost faith in him, and that counts for a lot.

Plus, Payton will always be the last line of defense. If a team's fail-safe is a legendary offensive mind and play-caller like Payton, it's hard to ask for more. The Broncos are supremely confident in Webb, though. In Payton I trust.

It wouldn't be a national piece on the Broncos if Patra's argument didn't also mention the team's 11 victories (12 counting playoffs) in one-score games last year, and how difficult it is for teams to repeat such success in tight contests year over year. That, and the tough first six weeks of the schedule, run the gamut of all the cautionary markers of the 2026 Broncos, in Patra's estimation.

"The Broncos ran away with the AFC West last season thanks to their ability to win close games, but the schedule gets tougher for the first-place team," Patra wrote. "Denver doesn’t have a gimme game until it faces Arizona in Week 7. If Payton’s crew regresses in tight tilts, it'll struggle to keep its grip on the division."

The Takeaway

The Broncos do face as tough a first six weeks as I've ever seen. But this is now a battle-tested team.

As is the case for all NFL teams with a franchise quarterback, as Nix goes, so too will the Broncos. That's why the team hasn't rushed Nix back onto the field and why it will continue to approach his recovery with an abundance of caution.

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