Broncos' Offense Must Win 5 Crucial Matchups to Beat Chiefs

These five matchups are critical for the Denver Broncos to have success against the Kansas City Chiefs, and put a stranglehold on the AFC West.

Nov 10, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) catches a pass for a touchdown as Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Drue Tranquill (23) chases during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

It's been nearly a week and a half since the Denver Broncos' abysmal offensive display on Thursday Night Football against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Broncos have had plenty of time to go back to the drawing board, figure out what went so badly wrong, and get it corrected. 

With the Kansas City Chiefs coming to Denver this week, it's a good opportunity for the Broncos to make a loud statement, even though they lead in the division. For about a decade, the AFC West has gone through Kansas City, and if the Broncos can pull off the win, they'll be in an excellent position to win the division. 

The task before the Broncos offense isn’t easy, as the Chiefs rank 14th in Defensive DVOA and the Broncos rank 18th in offensive DVOA. Despite that, there are areas the Broncos can attack the Chiefs' defense and find success, provided they execute consistently, which has been the biggest issue. 

Let's break them down.

QB Bo Nix vs. DC Steve Spagnola

The Broncos have to get more out of Nix than they have over the past few weeks. It's excellent that the team has been winning, and Nix has done just enough, but against a team like the Chiefs, it'll take more than that to get the win. 

Over the past 10 seasons, only one quarterback has had a lower quarterback rating this deep into the season than Nix’s 83.0, and that was Brock Osweiler. The Broncos have self-imposed Super Bowl aspirations, and if they want to get to the playoffs and make a run, they need Nix to be better. But the Chiefs are a tough matchup. 

While the Chiefs are allowing the third-lowest passing EPA this season, behind the Houston Texans and the Broncos, they rank in the middle of the pack in dropback success rate. The Chiefs allow the second-highest average of separation and rank in the middle of the pack in quarterback pressure rate. 

The Chiefs' defense has been playing better over recent weeks, raising the concern that they're starting to get hot while the Broncos' offense has hit a slump. However, the biggest issue with Nix seems to be between the ears, so hopefully the mini-bye week helped him get his head sorted out. 

WR Courtland Sutton vs. CB Jaylen Watson

Watson doesn’t tend to shadow opponents' top receivers, but he's a favorable matchup against the other Broncos receivers. When Sutton is matched up against Watson, there isn’t a great advantage, but a slight one that the Broncos can look to exploit. 

The advantage comes from how good Sutton can be even in tight coverage. Watson doesn’t allow much separation and is allowing a 10% catch rate over expected, meaning passes are being completed even when his coverage is still tight. 

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RB RJ Harvey vs. Chiefs' Run Defense

Oct 26, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos running back RJ Harvey (12) runs against the Dallas Cowboys in the second half at Empower Field at Mile High. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

This is a highlighted matchup because J.K. Dobbins has been ruled out, and he has been the Broncos' running game. Now, Harvey has busted off a couple of big runs and has made an impact as a receiver, but there has been no consistency as a runner. However, calling him boom-or-bust isn't apt either. 

Harvey has three games over a 4.0 average per carry, but two of them included runs over 10 yards. When he hasn’t busted off a long run, he has averaged over four yards per carry just once this season. When you take out his two longest runs, which went for 90 yards, Harvey’s rushing average goes from 4.3 yards to 2.6 yards per carry. That is 48 carries 124 yards. 

The Broncos have to find a way to keep the pressure off Nix, and the easiest way is to run the ball, which they’ll have to do by trotting out their rookie running back, who hasn’t found consistency yet as a runner. Hopefully, Denver has found a way to get Harvey there and to pick up the slack left by Dobbins' absence. 

Denver can’t get by with Harvey’s 32% success rate when running the ball, which is third-worst among backs with at least 50 carries, or seventh-worst among backs with at least 25 carries. 

Broncos O-Line vs. DL Chris Jones

Throughout the years, Jones has delivered near-dominant performances against the Broncos. The Chiefs lining him up all over the defensive line means he isn’t one or two players' problem, but a problem for all five offensive linemen. 

Last year, in the lone game against the Chiefs' starters, they lined Jones up against right tackle Mike McGlinchey a few times with success. With left guard Alex Palczewski and center Luke Wattenberg’s issues, Jones is a threat inside. Right guard Quinn Meinerz should be able to hold his own, provided he plays at the level he has been over the past few weeks.

Broncos' OTs vs. DE George Karlaftis

If the Chiefs don’t win with Jones, they have Karlaftis, who is having a good year with 38 pressures and five sacks. He has split his time about 40/60 between left tackle/right tackle, and has won against both. 

While Garett Bolles is having a great year, McGlinchey has been inconsistent at best and has had more struggles over recent weeks than he did earlier in the season with his pass protection. Now, for context, McGlinchey has also faced tougher pass rushers over the past few weeks than he did at the start of the season.

However, Denver needs McGlinchey to step up against Karlaftis, and Bolles to play at the level he has established this season.