Six Games That Will Decide Whether the Broncos Make the Playoffs

Circle these games as the pivotal matchups on the Denver Broncos' 2026 schedule.

DENVER, CO - JANUARY 04: Denver Head Coach, Sean Payton on the sidelines during a game between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO on January 04, 2026. | Kevin Langley / IMAGO / Icon Sportswire.

The Denver Broncos have their eyes set not only on repeating as AFC West champs, but also on returning to the AFC championship game, and advancing to win the Super Bowl.

To get there, the Broncos have to make the playoffs first, and some games on the 2026 schedule stand out as far more important to their playoff chances than others.

These six games are the ones to watch. Winning them will considerably boost the Broncos' chances of making the playoffs. 

Week 2: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) passes in the second quarter during a game between the Jacksonville Jaguars. | Dustin Bradford / IMAGO / Icon Sportswire

This game will be a must-watch. The Broncos dropped a game to the Jaguars at home late last season, putting their top spot in the AFC in jeopardy. The Broncos were able to overcome and hold onto the top seed, but they will likely see this as a revenge game. 

Early-season losses are easier to overcome, but the Jaguars are favored to win the AFC South and could be in the running for the top seed in the AFC in 2026. If the Broncos drop this game, that would give the Jaguars a tiebreaker over them, which could keep Denver out of the playoffs if another team takes the AFC South and the AFC West. 

Jaguars head coach Liam Coen's saucy words for Payton and the Broncos after Week 16 will echo into this early-season rematch.

Week  5: at Los Angeles Chargers

DENVER, CO: Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) is sacked by Broncos linebacker Nik Bonitto (15). | Kevin Langley / IMAGO / Icon Sportswire

Since Sean Payton took over as head coach, the Broncos are 3-3 against the Chargers. Since Jim Harbaugh became head coach in 2024, the Broncos are only 1-3 against the Chargers.

That lone win came in the 2025 season finale, when the Broncos had to play their starters to win the top seed in the AFC, while the Chargers rested the majority of theirs. 

If the Broncos can go on the road against a divisional opponent in the toughest stretch of their schedule and beat the Chargers, they'd put themselves in a good position early to offset potential losses in the middle or later parts of the season.

It would also send a message to the Chargers and the rest of the NFL, as many still look down on the Broncos for their struggles to get by the Chargers with Justin Herbert in the lineup.

Week 8: vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) talks with Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15). | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

While it is still early, Week 8 is when you start to get some sight on the playoff picture, and if the Broncos can handle the Chiefs at this point in the season, which would be their second game, they should firmly find themselves ahead of Kansas City.

Of course, a lot will also depend on how Week 1 goes against the Chiefs at Arrowhead, but no matter the outcome, that game will make the second game even more important for the Broncos' playoff picture.

The Broncos will either tie the series 1-1 on the season, take it 2-0 and put themselves firmly ahead of the Chiefs, or drop to 0-2 and find themselves likely on the outside looking in. 

Week 16: vs. Buffalo Bills

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) is sacked by Denver Broncos linebacker Nik Bonitto (15) as he fumbles the ball. | Dustin Bradford / IMAGO / Icon Sportswire

The final three weeks of the season are a gauntlet for the Broncos, and it starts with a Bills team coming into Denver in hopes of getting revenge for its 33-30 loss in the divisional round last year. The AFC West and AFC East are expected to send multiple teams to the playoffs this year, with the Broncos and Bills among them.

Obviously, a lot will depend on how the rest of the season goes, but there is a good chance the Broncos will need to handle the Bills to keep themselves in a good spot to make the playoffs, even if it's as a wildcard. In many ways, there's a good chance that the Broncos' final three games are all must-wins in some capacity.

Week 17: at New England Patriots

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) is sacked by Denver Broncos linebacker Que Robinson (51). | Dustin Bradford / IMAGO / Icon Sportswire

After a revenge game for their opponent in Week 16, the Broncos get a chance at revenge in Week 17 after the heartbreaking AFC championship game loss to the Patriots. This time, however, the Broncos go on the road, making it an even tougher matchup. 

This game could decide who takes the top seed in the AFC, decide a playoff team or two, and have a massive impact on the overall seeding. A loss to New England could significantly hurt the Broncos' playoff chances.

Depending on how the season goes, it could lead to an unfortunate narrative for the Broncos when it comes to Bo Nix vs. Drake Maye. 

Week 18: vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) and Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10). | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

The season finale against a divisional opponent can always have a major impact on a team's playoff chances, especially when it is against the other top team in the division from a year ago. For whatever reason, Payton has struggled to beat Harbaugh's Chargers, and this game could decide the division or a wildcard spot, depending on how the rest of the season goes, of course. 

Both Chargers games are so important for the Broncos, and it goes beyond the playoff chances. If the Payton-led Broncos can’t beat a Harbaugh-led Chargers team, with their starters playing, then narratives will form, and analysts will continue to overlook Denver.

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