Why Broncos Can Win Super Bowl 61—and Why They Might Fall Short

The Denver Broncos have their eyes set on the Super Bowl.

The Broncos came within one game of the Big Dance last year — within four points of it, really — and that was without their franchise quarterback, Bo Nix, who suffered a fractured ankle the week prior in a divisional round triumph that launched Denver to the AFC title game.

The Broncos have plenty of reasons to believe in their Super Bowl goals, but what could prevent this team from realizing them? With the Broncos poised to kick off the season at Arrowhead Stadium against the Kansas City Chiefs, all the 2026 possibilities are on the table.

With Monday Night Football rapidly approaching, I'm breaking down the reasons why the Broncos could go all the way this year and what could prevent them from realizing their goals.

Why it Could Happen: Roster Continuity

Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad look on. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Getting as close as the Broncos did with a healthy Nix is a confidence booster and a sign they're on the right track. The organization's master plan definitely panned out; Denver was right there, within spitting distance of the Super Bowl, and in Nix's second year, no less.

The Broncos decided to mostly stick with that 14-win roster, returning 90% of their 2025 snaps. With a focus on getting healthy, the Broncos added key players where they felt they needed help, including one blockbuster move.

Nix is fully healthy now, after undergoing a pair of surgeries to repair a fractured ankle in the offseason. The Broncos continued to build the nest around Nix, acquiring star receiver Jaylen Waddle and drafting for improved depth.

Healthy Again

Bo Nix and J.K. Dobbins look on. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

On top of Nix, the Broncos have veteran starters like running back J.K. Dobbins and safety Brandon Jones back on the field. All three of those players missed the most important game of the year with injuries.

Dobbins was a major loss last year. If he had been available for the AFC championship game, it might have been enough to get past the New England Patriots at home, even without Nix, because the run game was nonexistent and the weather conditions in the second half were so bad.

Second-Year Leaps

RJ Harvey breaks a tackle against the Packers. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Broncos have kept the core roster intact, and those pieces are healthy, but they're also poised to see a second-year jump from players like wide receiver Pat Bryant and running back RJ Harvey, both of whom could have a significant impact in 2026.

Bryant was the star of training camp this summer, and seems poised to assume the No. 3 receiver role alongside Waddle and Courtland Sutton. Harvey looks even better as a receiver, and the Broncos believe he'll continue to develop into a great runner who can be as reliable and consistent as he is explosive.

New Blood at OC

Sean Payton and the Broncos are also betting on new offensive coordinator Davis Webb, who garnered plenty of interest from other teams during the NFL hiring cycle back in January. Webb is now the primary play-caller, which is the biggest shakeup for the team since the AFC title game.

Webb has a tight relationship with Nix and the respect of Payton as an offensive mind. Time will tell whether Payton is right about Webb being the Broncos' play-caller, but the offense needed a spark.

Returning O-Line

For the third straight year, the Broncos are returning their entire starting five up front. That includes, of course, the All-Pro duo of left tackle Garett Bolles and right guard Quinn Meinerz.

Ben Powers returns to his post at left guard, with center Luke Wattenberg poised to prove the Broncos right for extending him to a lucrative multi-year deal last season.

That continuity up front will pay dividends when it comes to keeping Nix upright. Only one NFL quarterback has been sacked fewer times than Nix since he entered the league, and his O-line is a big reason why. Plus, the Broncos want their run game to take off this season and having all five starters back can help facillitate that in a big way.

Returning Defense & DC

The Broncos' entire starting lineup is returning on defense, minus one player: defensive end John Franklin-Myers. But the Broncos planned for his departure by extending Malcolm Roach last fall and drafting Tyler Onyedim in the third round.

Beyond that, defensive coordinator Vance Joseph returns for his fourth season. The brain child behind the NFL's sack champion team in back-to-back seasons did not get a head-coaching offer back in January, so he's hungry to again prove that he's ready for the opportunity next January.

There are plenty of reasons why everyone within the organization has eyes on the Super Bowl. This is a talented team that overcame so much last season to get as far as it did.

The pieces are in place. That being said, there are also reasons the Broncos could fall short again.

Why it Might Not Happen: A Quiet Offseason

Sean Payton and George Paton — Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton and general manager George Paton host their pre-draft press conference on April 16, 2026. | Denver Broncos

It's rare for a team to get as close as the Broncos did and not make several major offseason additions. Denver made only one: Waddle.

The Broncos are bucking convention — choosing to be an outlier compared to what we typically see from teams on the doorstep of a championship. In the few instances where teams have approached the ensuing offseason the way Denver did, it didn’t work out for them in winning it all and almost always led to a worse season.

Injury Concerns

Bo Nix chats up Kolbe Katsis. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Injuries are always a concern for NFL teams, but it's a bit more real for the Broncos this year because of how their 2025 season ended. Nix is the straw that stirs the Broncos' drink, and this team will go only as far as he can take it. But he needs to stay healthy.

Nix has suffered a fractured ankle before — once in high school and once in college. That being said, he's been remarkably durable and available since joining the Broncos.

Nix has started all 34 regular-season games since becoming the Broncos' starting quarterback, and two of the club's three playoff games. He's played through injury, including his rookie year, and while that's admirable, he hasn't been able to fully avoid the injury bug. This is another reason Denver's O-line continuity is so important.

However, despite their backup quarterback situation blowing up in their face at the worst possible moment, the Broncos decided not to upgrade the position behind Nix after watching Jarrett Stidham literally hand the New England Patriots a touchdown in the AFC championship game.

Nix is obviously the man and this team's franchise quarterback, but running it back at quarterback behind him was a questionable decision, even though it can be difficult to upgrade the backup quarterback spot.

The Broncos' injury concerns stretch beyond Nix. Keeping Dobbins healthy will be paramount, but at least this year, if anything happens to their starting running back, the Broncos actually have some insurance this time in rookie running back Jonah Coleman.

Webb's Inexperience

Sean Payton and Davis Webb. — Sean Payton and Davis Webb pass each other on the sideline. | Dustin Bradford / IMAGO / Icon Sportswire

There is also the decision to hand Webb the play-calling duties. This is his first time as a play-caller outside of four preseason games, and he isn’t battle-tested.

Payton will be in Webb's ear, which could be good and bad. Webb needs the autonomy to be his own man and call the offense, but at least Payton is waiting in the wings if needed.

In critical situations, Webb may not have enough experience to make the right decisions. That's where having Payton looking over his shoulder could be valuable.

A Tough Initial Schedule

Patrick Mahomes gets ready for the snap in Denver. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Broncos' schedule ranks middle-of-the-pack in terms of strength of schedule, but their first six games are tough. If the Broncos can weather the initial storm, they'll be in great position to maximize the second half of their schedule, which is one of the easiest in the NFL.

Alas, if the Broncos struggle to keep their head above water in the first six weeks, and emerge at anything less than .500, it could be tough to overcome, especially with their last three games of the season being Buffalo at home, New England on the road, and the Los Angeles Chargers at Mile High in the finale.

The Takeaway

There are plenty of reasons why the Broncos could win it all this year, but that blade cuts the other way, too. Many of the same reasons Denver could realize its goals also stand as potential pitfalls, but it all depends on how the cookie crumbles.

The Broncos chose an interesting path by keeping their roster largely the same (only nine new players on their 53-man roster compared to 2025), and only time will tell how that works out for them. Suffice it to say, though, there are more reasons to believe the Broncos can get back to the AFC title game and advance to the Super Bowl than there are pitfalls going against them.

This team has won 24 regular-season games since Payton was able to get a quarterback in his image. Nix is back, he's healthy, and he's hungrier than ever — looking to make up for lost time after having the rug pulled out from under him in the playoffs last season.

It's going to be fun to see how the Broncos' 2026 season takes shape.

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