3 Reasons Why the Browns Will Cover Their Win Total Projection in 2026

The stars might be lining up for Cleveland to have a surprisingly good regular season.

Aug 23, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns linebacker Carson Schwesinger (49) leads the team onto the field before the game between the Browns and the Los Angeles Rams at Huntington Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images | Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

The Cleveland Browns are still in roster reconstruction mode in their first offseason of the Todd Monken era, butthere’s a sense of optimism surrounding the team. They were widely considered among the winners of the 2026 NFL Draft, and their efforts in rebuilding the offensive line were mostly praised during free agency.

Those are part of the reasons why the Browns are currently staring at a 6.5 over/under win total projection at most online sportsbooks. Normally, a betting line so low is no reason to celebrate but we do have to consider the fact that the Browns have just eight games combined over the last two years -- so that projection is actually an upgrade.

Cleveland has fallen short of covering its projected win total over the last two years. In 2024, the over/under was set at 8.5 but they finished the year 3-14, while the over/under was set at 5.5 last year before they limped to a 5-12 mark. This year, Cleveland could exceed its expectations, and here are three reasons why. 

1. Sophomore jump, instead of slump

Linebacker Carson Schwesinger and tight end Harold Fannin Jr. wasted little time becoming stars as rookies. Quinshon Judkins had shining moments in the backfield, and defensive tackle Mason Graham finished the season on a very high note. 

And, let’s not forget quarterback Shedeur Sanders, for whom the game will slow down in his second season after being thrusted as the starter with virtually zero snaps alongside the first team. Under Monken’s guidance, he should look better, whenever he gets his chance to play. 

The Browns are counting on these five second-year players to solidify themselves on the roster. That’s why Cleveland had no problem letting linebacker Devin Bush Jr., tight end David Njoku or running back Jerome Ford walk in free agency. 

Sanders’ road towards a regular role is much harder, but he’ll start at some point in the season, even if it isn’t in Week 1. It’s just hard to believe Cleveland will stick with Deshaun Watson for 17 games, considering how little he’s played and how he’s played for the team over the past few years.

2. Rookie wideouts claim starting positions

Last season, the Browns were undoubtedly one of the worst teams in years when it comes to wide receiver production. No wideout caught more than two touchdown passes, and top-option Jerry Jeudy ranked among league leaders in drops. 

That’s why Cleveland invested first- and second-round choices at the position. By all accounts, Concepcion and Boston ranked as two of the most ready-to-play prospects available, and considering how thin the Browns’ roster was at the position going into the draft, they should have no problem securing starting roles. 

Even if odds are stacked against two rookies having breakout debuts at the same position for the same squad, expectations are sky high for Concepcion and Boston. Keep in mind that Fannin’s presence will take some weight off of their shoulders early on. 

3. The schedule is looking good

Cleveland already knew it was going to face the league’s second-easiest schedule based off of last season’s records, and when the NFL released its full season calendar, more good news was delivered to the Browns. 

They will have to travel the least amount of miles, and will leave their time zone only once all season long, to New Orleans, which has only a one-year hour time difference. Unlike last year, there’s no overseas matchup waiting, and they’ll face only one team coming off their bye week -- again, the Saints. 

Cleveland will also play the Steelers right as they come back from Paris, and they’ll return from their own bye -- set almost ideally on Week 11 -- to face last year’s worst team, Las Vegas. 

Now, consider that two other clubs within their division -- Baltimore and Pittsburgh -- are also facing sweeping staff changes, and the stars could be lining up favorably for the Browns to at least be in contention for a playoff berth when December comes. 

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The Browns aren’t known for giving their fans much reason to believe on a yearly basis. However, the team has done a good job at the front office level in the last few months, which is already a good sign. 

The bar isn’t impossibly high at 6.5 wins, so even if the Browns appear as underdogs in 15 of their 17 regular season games at the moment, the team has a better chance at going over their total win projection than in the last couple of years.

• Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 
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