3 Reasons the Buccaneers Will Beat Out the Falcons in the NFC South in 2026

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are set to try and reclaim the NFC South in 2026 after losing it in 2025.

The Bucs underwent a rough losing streak during the back half of the season, losing five of their last seven games and dropping the division to the Carolina Panthers. The Bucs may have lost out to the Panthers last year, but the Panthers are beatable in 2026, and there are other teams in the NFC South who could pose a threat — including the Atlanta Falcons.

The Falcons cleaned house after a mediocre season last year and hired new head coach Kevin Stefanski. There's some uncertainty surrounding the team as a result of that, and while the Falcons have added some pieces in the draft and free agency, the Bucs could take advantage of that uncertainty in the NFC South next season.

Here's why the Bucs should be able to beat the Falcons in the division in 2026:

Atlanta Has Major Questions at Quarterback

Atlanta Falcons quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa (1) and Michael Penix Jr. (9) on the field during Minicamp. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Falcons are currently hosting a competition for their quarterback spot with Michael Penix Jr., the incumbent starter whom the Falcons drafted in 2024, and Tua Tagovailoa, whom the Miami Dolphins let go after six seasons to try to rebuild.

Neither option is great.

Both have been mired with injury problems. Tagovailoa has missed 22 games during his NFL career due to injuries, and he's suffered four concussions at the NFL level among those. Penix Jr. is recovery from an ACL tear — the third of his football career — and is expected to be full go for training camp, but he's already missed eight games of his NFL career to injury after that one to his ACL.

Additionally, neither quarterback was top-class last year. Penix had a completion percentage of just 60.1%, and his immobility hurt him badly — his sack percentage of 4.50% was 29th in the NFL. Tagovailoa's adjusted net yards per pass attempt of 5.3 was 28th in the league, and both were not impressive in terms of EPA/play, with Penix ranking 24th (0.016) and Tagovailoa ranking 27th (0.004).

Both have problems. And while the Bucs are revamping their defense and it remains to be seen if those moves work out for them, the Bucs were able to beat Penix in 2025 and the defense should be able to handle an ailing Tagovailoa that hasn't truly impressed as a starter in some time now.

Bucs Can Take Advantage of Their Run Defense

Atlanta Falcons defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich on the sideline against the New Orleans Saints | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

One of the weakest parts of Atlanta's defense last year was its run defense. It was 25th in the league in opponent yards per rush (4.6) and 24th in rush yards per game (126.2).

The Falcons decided to retain defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, and while they brought in a few players like defensive tackle Da'Shawn Hand to help out with the run game, the defense brings back similar personnel. The Falcons also drafted a cornerback with their first pick of the draft, Avieon Terrell, who is unlikely to help with that.

The Buccaneers are set to have a new tandem at running back with Kenny Gainwell joining Bucky Irving in the backfield. Gainwell and Irving should make for a strong one-two tandem and, provided they stay healthy, should perform better in Zac Robinson's system than Irving and Rachaad White did in Josh Grizzard's last year.

Gainwell, who could end up starting in Tampa Bay, had a higher yards per carry (4.7 to 4.3), more rushing touchdowns (5 to 4) and significantly higher yards after contact per rush than White did last year (2.1 to 1.5). Put that in Tampa Bay's rushing offense against an Atlanta defense that struggled last year, and the Bucs have a key to victory in 2026.

They Lack Weapons Outside of Their Mainstays

Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London (5) celebrates after a touchdown catch with running back Bijan Robinson (7) against the Carolina Panthers | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

If you look at receptions, targets and handoffs among running back Bijan Robinson and wide receiver Drake London for 2026, it's not a stretch to say that the offense ran almost entirely through the two of them.

The ball went London or Robinson's way 502 times last season, per SumerSports, meaning that the two were targeted on 47.9% of Atlanta's offensive snaps last year. The Falcons do also have tight end Kyle Pitts, who was a second-team All-Pro in 2025, but outside of that, Atlanta's weapons are dire.

The Falcons lost running back Tyler Allgeier to the Arizona Cardinals, and his replacement, Brian Robinson Jr., is far less productive running back. The Falcons' receiving corps outside of London is also tough, with Jehan Dotson and new draft pick Zachariah Branch competing for the No. 2 spot and Olamide Zaccheaus filling in at WR3.

Atlanta is extremely reliant on Bijan Robinson and Drake London, which makes sense to an extent — they're both great players. But Stefanski and company will have to mix it up to be competitive with a revamped Tampa Bay defense under Todd Bowles, and at the moment, it doesn't look like they have the offensive weapons (or the quarterback) to be able to do that.

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