Buccaneers' Baker Mayfield significantly struggling in crucial area

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have plenty of problems. They've won just two games in their last seven, and their defense and special teams have both faltered significantly in those weeks — Tampa Bay's defense remains the sixth-worst in the NFL by pass yards per game and Tampa Bay's special teams consistently gives opponents short field after opening kickoffs, for example.

The offense, though, has been quite a big problem itself. The Bucs lost their Sunday game against the New Orleans Saints 24-20, and it was a rough outing for the offense — the Bucs went 3-13 on third down and 2-7 on fourth down in the loss. They remain a middling team on offense in general, ranking No. 19 in third down conversions, No. 22 in yards per game and No. 26 in red zone scoring percentage, per TeamRankings.

There are a lot of problems with the offense, but part of that problem is quarterback Baker Mayfield. An NFL MVP candidate to start the year through Tampa Bay's first seven games, Mayfield has seen a notable decline since the team's Week 7 game against the Detroit Lions, and particularly in one area.

Here's the part of his game has been hurting the Bucs the most:

Baker Mayfield has lots of trouble with deeper passes

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) runs for a gain during the fourth quarter against the New Orleans Saints | Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Baker Mayfield has been very ineffective on passes where he has to throw the ball 10 or more yards in the air. Since the Detroit Lions game in Week 7, Mayfield has thrown 78 such passes and completed just 28 of them a 35.9% clip, per SumerSports. Among qualifying quarterbacks, Mayfield ranks 38th of 41 in the NFL in that timespan.

Mayfield's passes of 10+ air yards have been particularly bad over the last three games. He's completed just four passes of the 24 he's attempted of 10+ air yards, ranking dead last among qualified quarterbacks during that time frame. His game against the New Orleans Saints on Sunday was particularly bad, as he went just 1/11 on these passes and averaged a grisly 4.1 yards per attempt.

The rain may have had a bit to do with it on Sunday, but it's a clear pattern and an area Mayfield has particularly struggled with for some time now that has limited the offense significantly. The Buccaneers are well below average in completion percentage (24th), yards per pass (25th) and pass yards per game (20th), and it's a factor behind just how often they've been stalling out on third and fourth down so far this season.

What is causing Mayfield's passing woes?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) throws downfield during a heavy downpour during the third quarter against the New Orleans Saints | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

This answer is hard to pin down.

To start, there's Mayfield himself. He's had a notable decline, and it could simply be his ability at hitting these passes himself. That being said, Mayfield has been dealing with some injuries this year, notably to his oblique and knee, and he also landed hard on his non-throwing shoulder and sprained it against the Los Angeles Rams. If he's still playing hurt, that could throw his accuracy off, and it would result in the poor play we've seen from him these past few weeks.

There are other non-Mayfield factors that could go into this, though. Tampa Bay's offensive line has been inconsistently injured, which makes less time for Mayfield to throw the ball deeper. The Buccaneers particularly struggle against man coverage, where one-on-one opportunities to find deep shots occur (they have -0.17 EPA per play against man coverage and 5.1 yards per attempt). Part of this could be OC Josh Grizzard's struggles with scheming players open vs. man coverage, but it's also up to Tampa Bay's wide receivers to get open themselves in these situations — if the coverage on them is too tight, it's harder for Mayfield to hit them.

Drops from wideouts don't help. Emeka Egbuka, one of Tampa Bay's No. 1 options with Mike Evans injured, has six drops, tied for 10th in the NFL according to FOX Sports. Egbuka had a particularly bad drop that would have gone over 23 yards in the air, so things like that affect Mayfield's total, too.

That being said, the brunt of the responsibility comes to Mayfield himself. And whether or not he is injured and whether or not his receivers and offensive scheme affect these things, he simply has to be better at longer passes if the Buccaneers want to make any actual noise in the playoffs — if they make it to the playoffs at all.

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