Buccaneers' NFC South crown no longer guaranteed with win over Panthers

Perhaps the craziest playoff scenario the NFC South could have experienced might come to pass this weekend.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have lost seven of their last eight games, but they have one more matchup against the Carolina Panthers — one that, for all intents and purposes, they were led to believe would put them in the playoffs and win the NFC South if they won. That was before the Atlanta Falcons defeated the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football, and now, things get a bit more complicated.

Here's exactly what the Buccaneers need to happen on Saturday and Sunday, and why the Atlanta Falcons now hold Tampa Bay's playoff chances in the palm of their hand:

Buccaneers now need Falcons to lose on Sunday to make playoffs

Atlanta Falcons cornerback Dee Alford (20) poses in the end zone for a photo with cornerback Cobee Bryant (37) | Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

The Falcons defeated the Rams 27-24 on Monday Night Football, which puts them at 7-9 — the same record as the Buccaneers (imagine saying that a few months ago). The Panthers are 8-8, so a win from them over the Buccaneers will seal Tampa Bay's fate and the Falcons' Sunday game against the New Orleans Saints matters not.

Things get a little more complicated if the Bucs do beat the Panthers, though. That would make both the Bucs and Panthers 8-9 — they'd be tied for the first tiebreaker for two teams (1-1 head to head) and the second (both teams would be 3-3 in the division) but the Buccaneers would win the division over the third tiebreaker, common opponents (Bucs would be 6-6 and the Panthers 5-7).

However, if the Falcons then beat the Saints, all three teams would be tied at 8-9. The NFL has a different tiebreaker for a three-way divisional tie: The tiebreaker goes to the team with the best record of the three clubs. The Panthers would be 3-1 in that round robin, while the Bucs would be 2-2 and the Falcons 1-3. As a result, the Panthers would win the NFC South and make the playoffs at 8-9 over both the Bucs and Falcons.

The Falcons win this game 27-24.

Tampa Bay will now have to rely on the New Orleans Saints defeating the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday if they are able to beat the Carolina Panthers on Saturday.
— River Wells (@riverhwells) December 30, 2025

So, if the Bucs beat the Panthers on Saturday, they'll have to eagerly wait for Sunday's 1 p.m. game between the Saints and the Falcons. That being said, they can't look too far ahead, as they've played paltry football in their last eight games and the Panthers could simply eliminate them outright if the Bucs aren't careful.

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