Chargers vs. Patriots predictions: How experts are picking NFL playoff showdown

The world has plenty to say about the Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots showdown in the wild-card round of the NFL playoffs.

Shoved into the spotlight of a Sunday night national game, the encounter between the two teams is oddly polarizing.

Sure, the Chargers are technically a seventh seed. The hosting Patriots are at home, the second seed in the AFC and have an MVP contender at quarterback with Drake Maye.

But the teams feel strangely closer than the seeds suggest. The Patriots played the NFL’s easiest schedule, while it’s widely accepted that Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is capable of MVP play and the team overcame some wicked injuries.

Since the playoff expansion format, seventh seeds usually get walloped by second seeds. But is that how the NFL expert predictions play out before kickoff?

Chargers vs. Patriots predictions roundup

USA Today/Microsoft Copilot AI

Jacob Camenker asked Copilot to come up with a prediction and it has the Patriots winning, 23-21:

“Copilot described the Patriots as "built for January," complimenting the "efficiency" of Drake Maye and the team's running game. The AI chatbot also expressed concerns about the "protection issues" the Chargers have in front of Justin Herbert potentially derailing them against Mike Vrabel's defense.”

CBS Sports

At CBS Sports, three of the seven experts polled picked the Patriots to win.

Tyler Sullivan doubts Herbert’s ability to overcome his past:

"I have many more questions surrounding Justin Herbert's ability to ascend in the playoffs. The Chargers QB is 0-2 in his playoff career, and they've been some pretty damming defeats. The first saw Herbert and the Chargers blowing a 27-0 lead to the Jaguars during the 2022 playoffs. The second came last year when he threw four interceptions in a loss to Houston after tossing just three picks over the entire regular season. Until Herbert shows me something different, I'll fade him."

How do the Chargers/Patriots match up? pic.twitter.com/N0u3UCvzqp
— Pats Planet 🪐 (@PatsPlanet_) January 6, 2026

ESPN

All four ESPN experts polled take the Patriots.

Along the way, they pointed out a key stat that seems to hurt the Chargers’ chances:

“New England is top five in point differential, points per drive on offense and defensive points allowed per drive. Since Week 10, the Chargers' offense ranks bottom three in yards per play, success rate, explosive play rate and points per drive.”

NFL.com

Just one expert of the five polled picked the Chargers to get the win.

Gennaro Filice wrote that the Patriots defense isn’t going to pressure Herbert enough and likes the Jesse Minter Chargers defense:

“I'm just not sure this defense -- which has been dealing with additional injuries to key figures like LB Robert Spillane -- has the horses to terrorize Herbert. On the other hand, the Chargers' D appears pretty well-equipped to keep a lid on Drake Maye. The second-year pro has been wildly efficient as a deep passer, but Jesse Minter's unit typically limits downfield gains. All in all, I just don't love this matchup for the resurgent Pats. Mike Vrabel did a brilliant job in Year 1, turning a 4-13 bottom-feeder into a 14-3 division champ, but I think the magical ride comes to a screeching halt on Sunday night.”

The Athletic

The two experts at The Athletic disagree on the outcome, with Daniel Popper writing the following in favor of the Chargers:

“In the end, I think the Chargers’ defense will be able to slow down the Patriots’ league-leading passing offense, and that will be the difference. I think the Chargers offense will do enough against a Patriots defense that is well-coached and sound, but still a year away from having enough talent at all three levels.”

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