Chargers vs. Patriots will expose one team as a fraud if the other overcomes history

Ever since the Los Angeles Chargers made the decision to rest starters for the regular season finale and seemingly angled toward certain NFL playoff opponents, onlookers have wondered if they preferred to play the New England Patriots.

Jim Harbaugh and Co. will never tell, but aiming for a decision that landed them as the seventh seed in the AFC put them up against a serious case of history.

As ESPN’s Bill Barnwell revealed while previewing the matchup, since the NFL moved to 14-team playoff fields, seventh seeds get destroyed: “They've gone 1-9 while losing by an average of nearly 11 points per contest.”

Alas, as Barnwell expands upon, the schedule is nice for the Chargers and the Patriots might not be as strong as their record hints:

“And yet here in the AFC, the Chargers are only 3.5-point underdogs as they travel to the East Coast to face the Patriots. Playing Sunday night is preferable given the track record of West Coast teams traveling and playing games at 1 p.m. ET, but this is really a referendum on the Patriots and the historically easy schedule they've faced this season. The Pats finished with the 10th-easiest schedule since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, per Pro-football-reference.com -- just ahead of the 1972 Dolphins, who rode that friendly slate to the only perfect season in league history.”

This Chargers defense is going to be the toughest unit the Patriots have faced all season.

The Chargers have the second-best defense (based on EPA) over the last 10 weeks. pic.twitter.com/GLMTKSnfcd
— Chad Graff (@ChadGraff) January 7, 2026

Barnwell ultimately picks the Patriots to win at home, especially after the Chargers coughed up some deep shots to Houston in the last game they attempted to win and No. 1 cornerback Donte Jackson (was for some reason active) suffered an injury during the finale.

Jackson is on track to return, though, and the defense hasn’t consistently had those miscommunications that produced explosive plays for the Texans. If it had, coordinator Jesse Minter wouldn’t be the hottest non-John Harbaugh name on the coaching circuit right now.

Hilarious matchup in Chargers vs. Patriots:

- Chargers OL: 31st in pressure rate since WK9
- Patriots DL: 31st in pressure rate w/o a blitz.
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) January 7, 2026

Ultimately, it’s going to come down to the quarterbacks. And that’s certainly at play in the predictions, too. Justin Herbert has a ton of experience compared to Drake Maye. Plus, he’s made a habit of MVP-like showings while going undefeated in primetime and while besting the likes of Kansas City, Philadelphia and other heavyweights this year.

Tack on the surprisingly friendly timeslot for the Chargers and, frankly, it’s even easier to buy into the Patriots’ soft schedule and other factors as a reason there’s an “upset” brewing, no matter what history says about seventh seeds.

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