Chiefs Confidence Meter: How I Feel About the Team Against Chargers in Week 6

With a perfect 4-0 record intact and a bye in the books, the Kansas City Chiefs will soon be back in action. On Sunday, they host the visiting Los Angeles Chargers in yet another bout between two bitter AFC West rivals.

To say it's been a slow start for Los Angeles would be a massive understatement. Jim Harbaugh's crew is struggling to generate any sort of momentum after hiring new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, and veteran quarterback Justin Herbert is playing some of his worst football.

Still, it's the NFL, and even this 0-5 team can't be overlooked. Andy Reid's group is well aware of that entering a new week of play.

Let's break down how both sides match up and put a bow on this Week 6 preview with a confidence meter rating on a scale ranging from 1-10.

Chiefs' offense vs. Chargers' defense

Before the bye, Kansas City had established itself as one of the best rushing team in the sport. Running back Kenneth Walker III's 87 attempts for 537 yards and four touchdowns put him on the map as a premier threat, and he figures to be a significant part of the game plan once again.

On Sunday, Walker faces a middling Chargers rush defense that ranks 14th in EPA per carry (-0.119, via RBSDM) and 18th in success rate. Stacking the defensive formation may not do anything to slow the standout halfback, as he's racked up 7.31 yards per tote with eight or more players in the box. Given the absences of wide receivers Rashee Rice (hamstring) and Tyquan Thornton (ankle), it makes sense for KC to try LA on the ground.

Regarding the passing attack, the aforementioned injuries and the continued inactivity of left tackle Josh Simmons could make quarterback Patrick Mahomes' life more difficult. Coming out of the bye, the Chiefs have football's third-highest share of passes behind or at the line of scrimmage (32.0%, courtesy of TruMedia) and average 1.6 yards behind the sticks when throwing.

Los Angeles' pass defense is respectable, albeit somewhat untested (fourth-lowest pass rate over expected, per Jefe's Handiwork). Coordinator Chris O'Leary's unit surrenders the ninth-lowest dropback EPA/play mark at 0.006 and owns the 11th-ranked pressure rate at 38.9%. This certainly doesn't feel like the week Kansas City unleashes a full-fledged aerial assault.

It's worth noting that safety Derwin James, whom many in Los Angeles circles have dubbed the "Travis Kelce stopper" over the years, is missing this one due to a hamstring injury. Elsewhere on defense, cornerback Donte Jackson (hamstring) is out and the trio of linebacker Bud Dupree (neck), linebacker Daiyan Henley (knee) and defensive end Dalvin Tomlinson (hamstring) is questionable.

Chiefs' defense vs. Chargers' offense

This can't be what the Chargers had in mind when they ushered in the McDaniel era. Prior to the start of Sunday's play, this is an offense that produces fewer points per drive (1.4) than all but one team and gains fewer yards (24.4) on a per-possession basis than all but three.

An inability to run the football is a major part of those struggles. Despite that, via nfelo, Los Angeles still passes at the lowest rate over expected (-11.6%). This Harbaugh-influenced team runs, runs and runs again, yet it's 28th in rush EPA/play. Second-year halfback Omarion Hampton has yet to realize his potential.

Speaking of wasted upside, this is the first time in Herbert's career he's been this glaring of a problem for such an extended stretch. He enters Week 6 ranked 29th out of 30 qualified signal-callers in adjusted EPA/play (-0.117) and, according to Pro Football Focus, his 13 turnover-worthy plays lead the pack in the worst of ways.

The two-time Pro Bowler has completed a career-low 59.4% of his passes with 5.0 adjusted yards per attempt, another personal worst. In fairness to him, his pass catchers are nothing to write home about and roll into the weekend banged up. Wideout Tre Harris — stop me if you're heard this before — has a hamstring injury and is out.

Could this finally be the week the Kansas City pass rush gets going? The Chargers being without tackle Joe Alt (neck) certainly helps that prospect. Los Angeles sits in just the 10th percentile with the fourth-highest pressure rate (43.8), also allowing a sack at the NFL's second-highest clip (10.6%).

Keep an eye out for defensive tackle Chris Jones and defensive ends George Karlaftis and R Mason Thomas. This could also be a spot for former Chargers linebacker Drue Tranquill to keep turning in productive snaps and maybe send a message to his old team.

How special are the special teams?

Ryan Ficken enters his fifth year as the Chargers' special teams coordinator, and he drew praise from Chiefs STC Dave Toub earlier in the week. The data tells a different story. PFF grades Los Angeles' group as 13th-best with a 77.3 mark after it was 29th in 2025, 15th in 2024 and first in 2023. There's some variance for you.

Expanding the advanced metrics, TruMedia ranks LA 31st in special teams EPA at -20.68 through five games. That includes being in the sixth percentile in penalty EPA (-5.18), kicking EPA (-16.84), kickoffs returned (66.7%) and yards per punt return (3.8). This is a side of the ball that could clearly use some work over the course of the season.

In more traditional methods of measurement, the Chargers are dead last in average starting field position on defense and third-worst on offense. How previous drives end has plenty to do with where the ensuing ones begin, though, so take it with a grain of salt.

Chiefs Week 6 confidence meter: 8.8

Let's get this out of the way: Los Angeles' season is probably a cooked product at this point barring the team going on a downright miraculous run and making a full recovery starting this weekend. The Chiefs have a markedly better offense, and their Sunday foes are floundering in many regards while also having an injury report longer than CVS receipts.

With that said, it's a divisional contest against a team that typically plays Kansas City tough. Reid's team is far from 100% healthy in its own right, and the jury is still out on Steve Spagnuolo's defense just a bit — particularly with the pass rush and safety collective. The Chiefs aren't out of the woods, even at home facing an inferior squad.

But at the end of the day, the only real route Los Angeles has to pull off an upset is Herbert suddenly snapping out of his funk, putting his Superman cape on and willing his team to victory. There's no evidence of that happening anytime soon.

Unless the Chiefs simply don't show up, they're in a favorable spot.

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