ESPN Matchup Predictor Forecasts Chiefs vs. Dolphins Matchup in Week 3

Will the Kansas City Chiefs move to 3-0 against Miami? Here's what ESPN's Matchup Predictor model projects in this weekend's contest.

Sep 14, 2026; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) speaks with media after the win over the Denver Broncos at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Following consecutive primetime slots to open the 2026 campaign, the Kansas City Chiefs will play their first afternoon contest of the year this weekend against the lowly Miami Dolphins.

This is widely considered the most winnable matchup remaining on KC's schedule. Miami owns the NFL's worst point differential after two weeks and isn't expected to improve much from this point.

While it may not be a blowout from the get-go, Kansas City fans are certainly expecting a victory on Sunday. However, what does the ESPN Matchup Predictor have to say about this looming showdown?

Chiefs at Dolphins: ESPN Matchup Predictor Gives Prediction

Sep 14, 2026; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Kenneth Walker III (9) greets fans after the win over the Denver Broncos at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

According to ESPN's computer model, the Chiefs have over an 85% chance to leave Hard Rock Stadium victorious. This is the highest win probability KC has in the matchup predictor for the remainder of the season, which is saying something considering the contest is being played on the road.

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances at Victory: Chiefs 85.3%, Dolphins 14.6%.

Chiefs on SI's Take

We really can't understate how bad this Dolphins team is. They are the only group that has yet to hold a lead at any point during the first 120 minutes of the regular season. They are allowing a 78.8% completion percentage through the air and have surrendered nine sacks while recording none themselves. Need I say more?

New head coach Jeff Hafley has a tough task on his hands rebuilding Miami's roster from the ground up. Running back De'Von Achane is a one-man band, but even he has struggled to get it going as opposing defenses stack the box due to Malik Willis' inconsistency as a passer.

The Dolphins possess the worst pass rush and receiving corps in the league and have more weaknesses than strengths. This is a stark contrast to a Kansas City squad that has looked excellent in its first two outings.

Andy Reid and Co. opened the year with a dominant win over the Broncos on Monday night. Then, the Chiefs escaped an overtime thriller 33-30 against the Colts to advance to 2-0. Last Sunday did expose a few flaws that Steve Spagnuolo's unit needs to clean up this time around.

There's no such thing as an automatic win in the NFL, but this is probably as close as the Chiefs will get all year. It shouldn't come as a surprise that the matchup predictor heavily favors KC.

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