Caleb Downs Is Far From a Long Shot to Be Chiefs First-Round Choice

The top player in the NFL Draft should not be out of the Kansas City Chiefs' consideration at No. 9.

Dec 31, 2025; Arlington, TX, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes safety Caleb Downs (2) gets into position during the 2025 Cotton Bowl and quarterfinal game of the College Football Playoff at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Heading into the NFL Draft next month, the discussion of who the best player in the selection process continues to rage on. Some will look at the Ohio State linebackers of Sonny Styles and Arvell Reese, or the Heisman Trophy-winning and National Champion Fernando Mendoza. Others will look at Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love, who is a supreme talent in this class.

The Kansas City Chiefs are in the running for half of those names, and it wouldn't be a question if Styles or Reese were available at No. 9 overall for general manager Brett Veach's taking. However, there is a name I want to discuss—one who has been considered as a consensus top prospect in this year's draft, who I view as the best in this year's class. Let's talk about why Ohio State safety Caleb Downs is in the clear running for the ninth overall pick.

Caleb Downs should overule the positional value debate

Feb 26, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Ohio State defensive back Caleb Downs (DB34) speaks to members of the media during the NFL Combine at the Indiana Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Jacob Musselman-Imagn Images | Jacob Musselman-Imagn Images

There is always a debate when it comes to top prospects at positions of lesser value. My first year doing full-time analysis on the NFL Draft, Saquon Barkley was my No. 1 prospect in 2018 and remains one of my highest-graded players to this day. The positional value argument wasn't prevalent at the time, considering Barkley went No. 3 overall to the New York Giants, but it became more so in 2022.

Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton was viewed as a consensus top prospect and, in plenty of cases, the top player in the 2022 draft class. However, just because he may have been viewed as the top player in the class, it didn't mean he was selected as such, falling all the way to No. 14 overall to the Baltimore Ravens, who ironically have that same pick this year. Hamilton is now widely considered the top safety in the NFL.

Nov 27, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton (14) during the first half at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images | Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images

Downs is in the same position as Hamilton was four drafts ago: the top player in the draft playing at a low-value position unlikely to be a one of the first overall picks in this year's draft. Downs has some of the best football IQ I've seen since Hamilton, and he is a better athlete despite being smaller in stature, combined with outstanding run defense and pass coverage ability. The Buckeyes standout safety has the makings to transform not just an NFL secondary but an entire defense.

That should be valuable, right? Yet, it isn't; the NFL has trended toward making safeties one of the least valuable positions on the defensive side of the ball due to average annual value for the position and where teams make the most investments. Quarterback, edge rusher, cornerback, offensive tackle, and wide receivers have become much more valuable due to better investment rate and AAV.

Ohio State Buckeyes defensive back Caleb Downs (2) celebrates during the NCAA football game against the Michigan Wolverines at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Mich. on Nov. 29, 2025. Ohio State won 27-9. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Yet, in what is considered a down year for draft prospects across the board and a weak quarterback class overall, Downs has a chance to buck the trend and become the first safety since Jamal Adams in 2017 to be selected in the Top 10 of the NFL Draft. The Chiefs could be that team to take him, and it wouldn't be a bad choice either.

Sure, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo already has Jaden Hicks and free agent signee Alohi Gilman as his starters, but you can never have too many good players at one position. Downs would transform the Chiefs' defense into a much more formidable unit in coverage and against the run, and in all essence, he would be the best player available, an approach Veach is expected to take.

Feb 24, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Kansas City Chiefs general manager Brett Veach speaks at the NFL Scouting Combine at the Indiana Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

These are the conversations likely happening right now in the Chiefs' draft meetings, determining whether Downs is a worthy selection (he is) and if the value is there (that is up for debate). Either way, Downs shouldn't be considered a long shot but an underrated favorite to be the No. 9 overall selection.