Colts' Daniel Jones Has Real MVP Case After Historic Start

With elite efficiency from Indianapolis Colts QB Daniel Jones, his MVP odds may be the best value in football.

Oct 19, 2025; Inglewood, California, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (17) looks on after the game against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

To say Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones is playing incredible football is an understatement. To say he’s playing the best football of his career might still not do it justice.

Jones has responded to pressure this season in a way we’ve never seen from a quarterback in the modern NFL. And that’s not hyperbole — it’s backed by data.

According to Pro Football Focus, Jones is responding to pressure better than any quarterback they’ve ever tracked. His 91.8 QBR when pressured would be the highest in a single season since the metric began in 2006.

The previous record holder? Josh Allen’s 83.5 QBR under pressure in 2024 — the same year he took home MVP honors. For perspective, the league average QBR vs. pressure this season is just 27.8.

QBs with a 91+ QBR under pressure through the first 6 weeks of a season in the last 10 years:

Daniel Jones

End of list. pic.twitter.com/oyJMnZz62c

— SleeperColts (@SleeperColts) October 17, 2025

That means Daniel Jones isn’t just performing well under duress — he’s thriving in chaos. When pockets collapse and defenders close in, Jones is delivering darts and maintaining control like the seasoned veteran he's become.

It’s a stunning turnaround for a quarterback who entered the season under immense scrutiny. 

After six turbulent years with the New York Giants and a short stint with the Minnesota Vikings, Jones finally landed in Indianapolis — and it’s clear he’s found the stability that had eluded him for most of his career.

Now, surrounded by the right coaching staff and system, his talent is translating to elite-level production in every measurable category.

Head coach Shane Steichen’s offensive design deserves its share of credit, too. By marrying quick reads with layered route concepts, he’s given Jones the freedom to process and improvise — areas that have turned from weaknesses into defining strengths.

Oct 19, 2025; Inglewood, California, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (17) speaks with head coach Shane Steichen in the first quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

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Beyond the analytics, the eye test tells the same story. Jones looks composed, confident, and in total command of an offense that ranks among the most efficient in football.

Every week, he’s stacking performances that would have once felt unthinkable for the player labeled “inconsistent” in New York.

Yet, somehow, the MVP markets haven’t caught up.

Per FanDuel Sportsbook, Jones currently sits at +2200 to win MVP — aside Dak Prescott (+2200), Jared Goff (+1800), Matthew Stafford (+1200), Baker Mayfield (+900), Drake Maye (+700), Josh Allen (+350), and Patrick Mahomes (+125).

NFL MVP odds at Week 8:
- Patrick Mahomes, +125
- Josh Allen, +350
- Drake Maye, +700
- Baker Mayfield, +900
- Matthew Stafford, +1200
- Jared Goff, +1800
- Daniel Jones, +2200
- Dak Prescott, +2200
- Jordan Love, +2500

(via @FDSportsbook)

— RJ Ochoa (@rjochoa) October 21, 2025

The fact that Jones isn’t listed among the top favorites feels like a glaring oversight. He’s producing at an elite level, leading one of the AFC’s best offenses, and rewriting narratives in real time.

If the Colts keep winning — and Jones sustains this pace — those odds won’t stay this low for long.

So, if you’re looking for value in the MVP futures market, there’s your answer. Daniel Jones isn’t just exceeding expectations — he’s redefining what a comeback season looks like.

At this rate, sportsbooks won’t be able to keep his MVP line discounted much longer. The Colts are one of the AFC’s hottest teams, and as long as they keep winning behind his poise and precision, that +2200 line will only climb.

For bettors, this is the window to act. Elite efficiency, undervalued odds, and a team built to sustain success rarely align for long.

Jones doesn’t need to be the flashiest player in football to cash this ticket. He just needs to keep being the calmest one when everything around him breaks down.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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