Colts vs. Texans: 5 Best Bets for Week 3

Five bets stand out as the Indianapolis Colts host the Houston Texans, including props for Josh Downs, Spencer Shrader and C.J. Stroud.

Dec 28, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Josh Downs (2) warms up before a game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Indianapolis Colts are back home in Week 3 for a massive AFC South matchup against the Houston Texans, and there are some very interesting props on the board.

After watching this offense through two weeks, the approach against Houston feels pretty clear: Indianapolis has to establish the passing game early.

Houston is going to make Jonathan Taylor earn everything. If Daniel Jones and this passing attack cannot create another threat, the Texans will be able to load the box and make life miserable for Taylor.

That opens the door for a couple Colts receiving props, while Indianapolis' struggling pass defense gives us two more opportunities on the Houston side.

Here are my five best bets for Week 3.

Josh Downs Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Sep 20, 2026; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs cornerback L'Jarius Sneed (38) tackles Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Josh Downs (2) during the fourth quarter at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Downs is coming off seven receptions for 72 yards against Kansas City and should see another heavy workload with Alec Pierce and Ashton Dulin both out.

He has cleared this number in three of his last five games and recorded 61 receiving yards in his last matchup against Houston.

Downs also owns the highest separation rate in the NFL, which will be especially valuable against Houston's top-ranked secondary.

With Indianapolis needing to establish the pass early, Downs should be heavily involved.

Spencer Shrader Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (-105)

Sep 20, 2026; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Indianapolis Colts kicker Spencer Shrader (3) kicks a field goal against the Kansas City Chiefs during overtime at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

This has become one of my favorite Colts props.

Shrader has cleared this number in six of his last seven full games and has made 20 field goals over his last seven games.

Houston's defense should create multiple stalled drives in scoring territory. The Colts offense is good enough to move the football, but finishing those drives could be another story.

That should give Shrader multiple opportunities.

Darius Slayton Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-108)

New York Giants wide receiver Darius Slayton (18) breaks a tackle attempt by Dallas Cowboys cornerback Corey Ballentine (36) before getting a Big Blue first down, Sunday, January 4, 2026, in East Rutherford. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

This number feels extremely low for a receiver with Slayton's big-play ability.

He has cleared 13.5 yards in nine of his last 10 games and 23 of his last 27 career starts. He also went for 95 receiving yards the last time he faced Houston.

More importantly, Slayton already has established chemistry with Daniel Jones from their years together in New York.

With two of Indianapolis' top four receivers sidelined, it should not take much volume for Slayton to clear this number.

Dalton Schultz Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Sep 20, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans tight end Dalton Schultz (86) celebrates after a first down during the second quarter against the Cincinnati Bengals at Reliant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

This might be my favorite Houston prop.

Schultz exploded for 140 yards on 12 receptions last week, and the Colts have allowed the second-most receiving yards to tight ends this season.

Around 61% of Schultz's receptions come within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, putting a lot of responsibility on an Indianapolis linebacker group that has struggled badly in coverage.

With top wide receiver Nico Collins out with a hamstring injury, Schultz should once again command a massive target share.

C.J. Stroud Over 47.5 First-Quarter Passing Yards (-118)

Sep 20, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) passes against the Cincinnati Bengals at Reliant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Indianapolis has given us very little reason to trust this pass defense.

The Colts rank 31st defensively and have allowed the most passing yards in football through two weeks.

Stroud has cleared this number in all six of his career matchups against Indianapolis, both games this season and nine of his last 10 overall.

He also threw for 69 first-quarter yards last week and has averaged 69.2 over his last five games.

At just 47.5 yards, I expect Houston to attack this secondary immediately.

The formula this week is pretty simple: Indianapolis needs its passing game to loosen Houston's defense, while the Texans should have opportunities through the air against a Colts defense that has not shown it can stop anybody yet.

Those two matchup trends give us five bets worth attacking Sunday.

Good luck and bet responsibly.

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