Colts Week 8 Best Bets: Finding Value Amid the Chaos

With the Colts in full teardown mode, we're finding value in five player props against Jacksonville.

Jan 4, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Indianapolis Colts tight end Tyler Warren (84) makes the catch against the Houston Texans during the first half at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Indianapolis Colts are headed back to Jacksonville, a place they haven't won since 2014.

Usually, that would be enough reason to keep the card light. But this Colts fire sale has created some interesting betting opportunities.

Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner are gone, Josh Downs has requested a trade, and Jonathan Taylor is available for the right price. From a morale perspective, it feels like the life is being sucked out of this team.

From a betting perspective? We've managed to capitalize on the chaos, going 15-4 on Colts-specific bets and 17-16 overall through seven weeks.

Jacksonville's elite run defense against Taylor and this brand-new offensive line will dictate the Colts' side of the ball. On the other side, Trevor Lawrence gets a depleted secondary without Justin Walley or Cam Taylor-Britt.

We're hunting for value this week. Here are my five best bets for Week 8.

Jonathan Taylor Anytime TD (+105)

Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) takes off on a run Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026, during the game against the Tennessee Titans at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Jonathan Taylor in the end zone at plus money doesn't come around very often.

Yes, Jacksonville has one of the best run defenses in football, and Nelson isn't creating holes for Taylor anymore. But Taylor just put up 95 rushing yards and a touchdown against an elite Minnesota defense and has scored in each of his last two games.

Taylor has eight rushing touchdowns this season, tied for the NFL lead, and has scored 10 total touchdowns over his last 10 games.

He's also scored at least once in each of his last three matchups against Jacksonville.

I can't stay away from this at plus money.

Tyler Warren Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-116)

Oct 11, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers cornerback Asante Samuel Jr. (22) breaks up a pass intended for Indianapolis Colts tight end Tyler Warren (84) in the third quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Barry Reeger-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Colts badly missed Tyler Warren while he was sidelined with a groin injury.

Now he's back against a Jacksonville defense that ranks 19th in tight end coverage, and this line has hit in each of Warren's last three healthy games.

He also had 43 receiving yards the last time he faced Jacksonville.

With Downs requesting a trade and the wide receiver room depleted, I expect Shane Steichen to get Warren involved early and often.

Spencer Shrader Over 1.5 Field Goals (+114)

Oct 25, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Indianapolis Colts kicker Spencer Shrader (3) reacts with punter Rigoberto Sanchez (8) after making a field goal against the Minnesota Vikings in the first half at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

We're going right back to one of our regular plays.

Shrader has cleared this line in 11 of his 15 games with Indianapolis and has made 19 field goals over his last seven games.

He finally missed a couple against Minnesota, but I'm putting my trust right back in him.

With this stagnant Colts offense, Shrader might once again be Indianapolis' main source of scoring. Getting this at plus money feels too good to pass up.

Trevor Lawrence Over 19.5 Pass Completions (-123)

Dec 28, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) runs in a touchdown during a game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mykal McEldowney-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

This matchup could get ugly for the Colts' secondary.

Lawrence ranks fifth in passing grade against man coverage, while Indianapolis plays man at the seventh-highest rate in the league, according to PFF.

He's recorded 24 completions in each of his last two games and finished with 28 and 23 in his last two matchups against Indianapolis.

Walley is out, Taylor-Britt is on IR and Sauce Gardner is just returning from injury.

Twenty completions feels very attainable.

Bhayshul Tuten Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-116)

Football - NFL - Houston Texans v Jacksonville Jaguars - Wembley Stadium, London, Britain - October 18, 2026 Jacksonville Jaguars' Bhayshul Tuten scores their second touchdown Action Images via Reuters/Paul Childs | Action Images via Reuters

This might be my favorite sneaky play on the card.

Tuten has cleared this number in four straight games with 48, 24, 18 and 17 receiving yards.

He also ranks second among running backs in PFF receiving grade, while Indianapolis ranks 30th in receiving yards allowed to running backs per route run.

Against a depleted secondary and inexperienced linebacker room, Tuten should have opportunities underneath.

The Colts might be falling apart, but there's still value to be found, and we're going to keep cashing while this franchise burns.

Good luck and bet responsibly.

Game odds and player props are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Recommended Articles