Colts Picked to Win AFC South in Bold 2026 Prediction

The Indianapolis Colts are not supposed to win the AFC South this season.

At least, that is what oddsmakers and most preseason projections would have you believe.

FOX Sports analyst Danny Parkins went against the grain, picking Indianapolis to finish first in the AFC South ahead of the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars.

.@DannyParkins reveals his AFC South picks…

And he has the Texans AND Jaguars missing the playoffs 👀 pic.twitter.com/LWglZaRxm9
— First Things First (@FTFonFS1) September 3, 2026

“If you see the best version of Daniel Jones for a full year, I think the Colts can win the AFC South,” Parkins said.

That will sound crazy to plenty of people. But after what Indianapolis showed last season, maybe it shouldn’t.

The 2025 Colts Already Showed Their Ceiling

Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (Blue Jersey, Number 17) yells at the line of scrimmage — Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (17) yells at the line of scrimmage Sunday, Nov. 30, 2025, during a game against the Houston Texans at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

It is easy to remember the collapse and forget just how dominant this team looked before everything unraveled.

Indianapolis opened 2025 at 8-2 and, through seven weeks, led the NFL in points per game, yards per play and EPA per play. The Colts also scored 103 points through their first three games and opened the season by scoring on an NFL-record 10 consecutive possessions.

For a stretch, this was arguably the best offense in football.

Jones finished with 3,101 passing yards, 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Jonathan Taylor rushed for 1,585 yards and 18 touchdowns, while Tyler Warren posted 817 receiving yards and Alec Pierce topped 1,000.

Then the season fell apart.

The Colts lost their final seven games, with Jones suffering a torn Achilles during the third game of that skid against Jacksonville. Indianapolis became the first team in NFL history to start 8-2 and finish with a losing record.

That ending matters, but so does the ceiling Indianapolis showed before it.

The AFC South Is More Open Than It Looks

Colts QB Daniel Jones (White Jersey, Number 17) is sacked by Jaguars defensive end Danny Striggow (Teal Jersey, Number 92) — Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (17) is sacked by Jacksonville Jaguars defensive end Danny Striggow (92) during the first quarter of an NFL football game at EverBank Stadium, Sunday, Dec. 7, 2025, in Jacksonville, Fla. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union] | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Houston finished 12-5 last season, while Jacksonville went 13-4 and won the division. Both deserve the respect they are getting entering 2026.

But neither team is untouchable.

C.J. Stroud threw for 3,041 yards, 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions last season, earning a 72.9 PFF grade that ranked 21st among qualified quarterbacks. Jacksonville finished sixth in scoring, but Parkins is betting on regression after Trevor Lawrence’s career year.

Indianapolis, meanwhile, is +380 to win the AFC South on DraftKings, behind Houston and Jacksonville.

The Colts added Keenan Allen to an offense that still features Taylor, Warren, Pierce and Josh Downs, while four of five offensive-line starters return.

Indianapolis does not need to recreate its ridiculous early-2025 pace. If Jones gives the Colts even a good portion of what he gave them last year, this offense should score enough to stay in the race.

The biggest qualifier is health.

Jones is returning from a torn Achilles, Pierce is working back from ankle surgery, and last season showed how quickly injuries can derail everything.

But if Indianapolis keeps its major pieces on the field, Parkins’ prediction is not nearly as wild as it sounds.

The Colts should be in the AFC South race deep into the season.

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