Horseshoe Huddle

Adams: Final 1st Round NFL Mock Draft

What surprises will today’s first round of the 2023 NFL Draft bring?
Destin Adams|
Adams: Final 1st Round NFL Mock Draft
Adams: Final 1st Round NFL Mock Draft

In this story:

Indianapolis Colts

The wait is finally over, NFL fans. Today, the 2023 NFL Draft will begin.

The long-anticipated answer to who the Carolina Panthers traded up for will be revealed, as well as finding out which quarterback the Indianapolis Colts will finally select in Round 1 after choosing to stay on the veteran carousel the past four seasons.

Every year, there are many surprises that come inside the first round, and from what I am hearing across the league, this year could have even more than normal.

I released my first-round mock draft 1.0 a week ago; check it out HERE. So here is my final prediction of how today’s first round will go. 

Pick 1: Carolina Panthers (via Chicago Bears)

QB Bryce Young, Alabama

Pick 2: Houston Texans

QB Will Levis, Kentucky

After the Panthers take who I believe to be the Texans' number-one QB option in Young, what they do at two is one of the biggest mysteries surrounding this year's draft. Many thought they could pivot to edge rushers, as I did in my previous mock draft, and the smoke is pointing toward Tyree Wilson out of Texas Tech. But, the more I’ve thought about the pick, it feels like a hard sell to their fan base to leave the first round without a QB, and the only pick they can guarantee themselves their top guy is here at two. After talking to multiple people close to the Texans, I believe their QB2 in this class is Kentucky’s Will Levis.

Pick 3: Arizona Cardinals

EDGE Will Anderson Jr., Alabama

The Cardinals, to many, are a prime trade-down candidate, but I believe their top player in this class is Will Anderson Jr. out of Alabama. So to pass on him here to move down would need to be a solid trade package. And the word around the league is that teams aren't willing to make a move up in a class that many believe is missing the clear blue-chip prospects at the top. This tells me that the Cardinals will decide to stay put and take their top player in the draft Anderson.

Pick 4: Indianapolis Colts

QB Anthony Richardson, Florida

Which QBs would be available when the Colts are on the clock has been one of the biggest storylines of the offseason. Here, options were Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud and Florida’s Anthony Richardson. I personally have Stroud ranked as the top QB in this class (see all of my rankings HERE), but the question is, do the Colts agree with me? I think the hiring of Shane Steichen was a sign that they trust him to get the most out of whichever QB they select, and Richardson is a huge pile of clay for Steichen to mold his offense around. I believe when it's all said and done, Richardson’s upside has him at the top of their QB board, and why I think he is the selection.

Pick 5: Seattle Seahawks (via Denver Broncos)

DT Jalen Carter, Georgia

Pick 6: Detroit Lions (via Los Angeles Rams)

QB C.J. Stroud, Ohio State

Early in this draft process, I was told that the Lions thought hard about trading up for a QB in this class but elected to stay put. With the recent news surrounding Stroud, their patience pays off and he falls to them here at six. The only question I have here is what they do with Jared Goff because sitting Stroud, who looks beyond pro-ready, wouldn't make much sense. But sometimes, the draft brings you a pleasant surprise and you figure out the logistics afterward.

Pick 7: Las Vegas Raiders

CB Devon Witherspoon, Illinois

Pick 8: Green Bay Packers (via Atlanta Falcons)

TRADE: Atlanta Falcons send pick 8 to the Green Bay Packers for pick 13, pick 78, and a 2024 2nd.

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State

Pick 9: Chicago Bears (via Carolina Panthers)

OT Paris Johnson Jr., Ohio State

Pick 10: Philadelphia Eagles (via New Orleans Saints)

EDGE Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech

Pick 11: Tennessee Titans

OT/OG Peter Skoronski, Northwestern

Pick 12: Houston Texans (via Cleveland Browns)

EDGE Nolan Smith, Georgia

Pick 13: Atlanta Falcons (via Green Bay Packers/New York Jets)

RB Bijan Robinson, Texas

The Falcons are a team many are reporting are trying to trade back in this year's draft. I think the main reason is that if they stay put at eight, they will feel like they need to take one of the defenders available at the pick. But, what I think they are more interested in is adding to their offense. Whether that is moving up for a QB in this year's class or moving back to add a running back like Bijan Robinson, who many views as the best running back prospect we've seen since Saquon Barkley.

Pick 14: New England Patriots

EDGE Lukas Van Ness, Iowa

Pick 15: New York Jets (via Green Bay Packers)

CB Christian Gonzalez, Oregon

After officially trading back to acquire QB Aaron Rodgers, the Jets have options at pick 15. I think “best player available” will be their approach, while they probably prefer to add one of the top tackles in this class. This makes me think Broderick Jones out of Georgia and Christian Gonzalez out of Oregon would be the top two choices here, but I think pairing Sauce Gardner with Gonzalez would be too good of an opportunity to pass up.

Pick 16: Washington Commanders

CB Joey Porter Jr., Penn State

Pick 17: Pittsburgh Steelers

OT Broderick Jones, Georgia

The run on corners went earlier than the Steelers would have liked, but one of the perks of this is one of the draft's best offensive linemen falls in their lap here in Jones. He can play right or left tackle, whichever the Steelers would prefer, and it's a bonus for them that this is an incredibly deep cornerback class, and they have the top pick in the second round thanks to the Bears gifting it to them for Chase Claypool this past year.

Pick 18: Detroit Lions

DT Calijah Kancey, Pittsburgh

Pick 19: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TE Michael Mayer, Notre Dame

Pick 20: Seattle Seahawks

OG O’Cyrus Torrence, Florida

Pick 21: Los Angeles Chargers

WR Jordan Addison, USC

Pick 22: Baltimore Ravens

CB Emmanuel Forbes, Mississippi State

Pick 23: Minnesota Vikings

WR Zay Flowers, Boston College

Pick 24: Jacksonville Jaguars

EDGE Myles Murphy, Clemson

Pick 25: New York Giants

S/NCB Brian Branch, Alabama

Pick 26: Dallas Cowboys

LB Drew Sanders, Arkansas

The Cowboys here had who I believe to be their top choice taken by the Buccaneers in Mayer, so I think they would look to other needs to pivot instead of going with another tight end. Drew Sanders out of Arkansas is my top linebacker in this class. His size and ability in coverage would give the Cowboys a day-one starter with solid upside at a position of need on a strong defense run by Dan Quinn.

Pick 27: Buffalo Bills

DT Bryan Bresee, Clemson

Pick 28: Cincinnati Bengals

TE Dalton Kincaid, Utah

Pick 29: New Orleans Saints

CB Deonte Banks, Maryland

Pick 30: Philadelphia Eagles

RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama

Pick 31: Las Vegas Raiders (via Kansas City Chiefs)

TRADE: Kansas City Chiefs send pick 31 to the Las Vegas Raiders for pick 38, pick 100, and a 2024 3rd.

QB Hendon Hooker, Tennessee

While I personally wouldn't draft Hendon Hooker in Round 1, everyone I talk to around the league believes a team will end up trading up to the end of the first for the Tennesee QB. The Raiders have a highly reported interest in adding a rookie QB to sit behind Jimmy Garoppolo for the time being. And after they missed out on Stroud earlier, they pivot to offering the Chiefs a package to get Hooker and the fifth-year option. Hooker will need to redshirt this season to fully recover from his ACL tear this past season, as well as having to learn an NFL offense that he will not be accustomed to coming from Tennessee.

Follow Horseshoe Huddle on Facebook and Twitter.

Published
Destin Adams
DESTIN ADAMS

Destin Adams is an analyst for HorseshoeHuddle.com and one of the hosts of the Saddle Up Show. He has covered the Colts since 2019. He previously helped create the site TheBlueStable.com and most recently he covered the team for SB Nation during the 2022-2023 season. 

Share on XFollow TheDestinAdams
Home/News