Colts Can't Fall Apart Now, Most Consequential Game Incoming

The Indianapolis Colts have lost three of their last four games after their best eight-game start in over a decade. Traveling to a city where they haven't captured a victory since 2014, a win over the Jacksonville Jaguars would give the Colts back sole possession of the AFC South.

Coincidentally, this year's game in Jacksonville takes place in week 14, the same week that marked the beginning of the Jaguars' decade long win-streak at home over Indianapolis, beginning in 2015.

That 2015 game saw the Colts trot out Matt Hasselback at quarterback, filling in for a then-injured Andrew Luck. Indianapolis lost 51-16, the most points allowed by the team across 48 all-time matchups. The defeat dropped the Colts to 6-7 on the season

This year holds a bit more weight. Both teams sit at 8-4 overall and 2-1 in the division, with each team's only divisional loss coming to the Houston Texans. The Jaguars have won three straight games with an average margin of victory of 18 since losing to Houston on Nov. 9.

Comparatively, the Colts have lost back-to-back games by a combined total of seven points. Most recently, the team finished with just 16 points at home against the Texans, their fewest total of the season and their only game without 20+ points. The loss was Indy's first at home in 2025.

In games where the Colts score over 30, they're a perfect 7-0. Without hitting that threshold, the team is just 1-4, with the only win coming over the Denver Broncos (29-28). Whether this is an offensive or defensive issue is up for debate, but across the team's last two losses, they've been dominated in time of possession by a combined total of 27:03.

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If the Colts plan to take back control of the division this Sunday, they'll have to flip the script to defeat a Jaguars team that ranks fourth in the league in average time of possession per game at 32:17. The Colts average of 29:41 sits at 18th.

Despite lackluster offensive performances in consecutive weeks by Indianapolis, the team still ranks top five in both yards per game and points per game. Their average scoring output of 29.8 is the best mark in football.

If the Colts hope to limit Jacksonville's offense, shutting down receiver Brian Thomas Jr. will be critical. Last year, Thomas Jr. went for 100-plus yards on five-plus receptions in both games against the Colts in his rookie campaign.

Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has gone over 225 pass yards and for two-plus touchdowns in his last two games against Indianapolis as well. The team has scored 25 or more points in four straight games since trading for receiver Jakobi Meyers ahead of the trade deadline.

The backbone of Jacksonville's recent success has come from their defense, specifically their defensive line. The unit is allowing a league-low 82.4 rushing yards per game, and their allowed scoring rate of 32.6% sits only behind the Houston Texans and Seattle Seahawks this season. They've also forced 20 turnovers, the third-most in the NFL through 13 weeks of play.

Indianapolis leads the league with 5.1 rushing yards per attempt, while the Jaguars have yet to face a top-10 team in the league in that stat. The Colts are 20th in the league in yards per attempt over the last two weeks, averaging 3.8 per carry in losses to the Kansas City Chiefs and Texans.

Running back Jonathan Taylor remains the league's leading rusher, but he will have to improve on his career average of 4.6 yards per carry in Jacksonville. He has 41 carries for 172 yards and no touchdowns across four career games on the road against the Jaguars.

Only 2 previous Jaguars home regular-season games in Dec/Jan featured both teams with winning% of .667+

• 12/11/05: 12-0 Colts vs 9-3 Jags - L, 18-26
• 12/10/17: 8-4 Seahawks vs 8-4 Jags - W, 30-24

This Sunday is one of the most important games in Jags history. pic.twitter.com/4KyWifmpcW
— Jamal St. Cyr (@JStCyrTV) December 3, 2025

It's difficult for a game to get more consequential than Sunday's. Despite the Colts two-game slide, they still have complete control of their own destiny, and a win Sunday becomes the first step towards their first AFC South title since the 2014 season.

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