Why Colts Keeping Ballard, Steichen was Always the Most Likely Outcome

The Indianapolis Colts are retaining general manager Chris Ballard and head coach Shane Steichen for the 2026 season.

Indianapolis Colts general manager Chris Ballard leaves the field during a game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium. | Christine Tannous/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

When Carlie Irsay-Gordon held her first press conference as owner and CEO of the Indianapolis Colts, she was asked directly if the fates of general manager Chris Ballard and head coach Shane Steichen would be tied to a playoff appearance in 2025.

“Do you have a crystal ball with you?" Irsay-Gordon laughed. "Of course things happen, and some of it is – we all have to look at all these factors. I mean, if we had all these injuries decimate – knock on wood on that. I’m just saying there are so many different directions. That’s part of why it’s so fun and scary to work in sports sometimes.”

Seven months later, her answer would turn out to be prophetic.

The Colts announced that Ballard and Steichen would be retained for the 2026 season shortly after concluding an 8-9 season with a 38-30 loss to the Houston Texans, their seventh consecutive defeat. After starting the season 8-2, injuries piled up for Indy, and the team crumbled to one of the worst collapses in league history.

Despite the collapse, Ballard will return for his 10th season at the helm of the Colts, while Steichen will be in his fourth year as head coach. The Colts are 71-80-1 in nine seasons with Ballard as GM (25-26 with Steichen) with no division titles, one playoff win, and only two playoff appearances. Every other team in the AFC South has won the division at least twice in those nine seasons.

There is certainly a very good argument to be made that Ballard should not only have been fired after this season, but years ago. However, the Colts are deciding to run it back with their current regime to the consternation of many Colts fans. And, when looking at the situation in Indy, retaining Ballard and Steichen always seemed like the most likely decision.

Why Ballard Is Returning

Chris Ballard, Indianapolis Colts general manager, talks with Colts owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon during training camp held at Grand Park in Westfield. | Mykal McEldowney/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Irsay-Gordon is a very process-driven person. In a recent piece by The Athletic, Irsay-Gordon revealed that she likes to study how a decision was made versus judging the decision strictly on the result. When taking that into account, it's clear why Ballard was retained for at least another year.

Ballard's roster-building approach this season was the most aggressive we have seen from the general manager. The Colts spent big in free agency, bringing in Charvarius Ward and Cam Bynum to overhaul the secondary and signing Daniel Jones to a larger deal than many expected to compete for the starting quarterback spot.

The biggest move came when Ballard and the Colts traded two first-round picks and wide receiver AD Mitchell to the New York Jets for cornerback Sauce Gardner. It was an all-in move to push the Colts over the top, a move that was signed off on by Irsay-Gordon herself. If Ballard was truly on the hot seat, it is unlikely Irsay-Gordon would have allowed him to mortgage the team's future with such a trade.

The moves paid off in a big way when all players were 100%. Jones had the offense firing on all cylinders and was even in MVP conversations to begin the year. Bynum was a ballhawk, leading the team in interceptions. Ward and Gardner both proved they could lock down their respective sides of the field when healthy.

However, as was the case with many players, the injury bug hit Indy hard. Jones fractured his fibula and then tore his Achilles. Ward suffered three separate concussions throughout the season. A calf injury limited Gardner to a total of two and a half games in a Colts uniform. Combine that with other serious injuries to key players, and the roster crumbled.

The results certainly were not up to the standard that the Colts and Irsay-Gordon require. However, it is clear that the process by which Ballard and the front office built this team is what Irsay-Gordon believes will work. Before the injuries, the Colts were 8-2 and the top seed in the conference. Irsay-Gordon said herself that there would be many factors in the decision, including if the team was decimated by injuries.

Now, that does not excuse the other shortcomings by Ballard when building this team. Anthony Richardson Sr., whom Ballard and Steichen took with the No.4 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft to be the team's franchise quarterback, failed to play a meaningful snap all season and spent the majority of the year on injured reserve. It's fair to wonder if Richardson has played his last snap with the Colts, making his selection a massive bust.

The pass rush and linebacker groups that Ballard assembled proved to be wildly disappointing as well. Failing to adequately address these issues proved to be a massive detriment to the team down the stretch.

But in the end, Ballard gets at least one more shot to run it back and go all in for 2026. Irsay-Gordon believes Ballard and the front office are on the right track to bringing the Colts back to their winning ways. Unfortunately, there are nine years of proof that says otherwise.

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Why Steichen Is Returning

Indianapolis Colts head coach Shane Steichen looks on in the second half against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

The argument to keep Steichen is a little more straightforward. In his third year as head coach, and with finally having good-to-great quarterback play at his disposal, Steichen took the Colts' offense to new heights.

Through the first half of the season, Indy had one of the most efficient and prolific offenses the NFL has seen in years. Jones and running back Jonathan Taylor were playing at MVP levels. The offensive line was dominating the line of scrimmage, and the Colts were putting up points at will. Defenses were finding it very difficult to slow things down.

But after Jones suffered the fractured fibula, things went downhill. Teams loaded the box to stop Taylor and forced a hobbled Jones to beat them through the air, all while bringing pressure at an alarming rate. The Colts' offense quickly came back down to earth.

The biggest issue with Steichen's teams has been an inability to finish close games and finish at the end of the season. In December and January games with Steichen as the head coach, the Colts are 6-10 over the last three seasons. Steichen also boasts an abysmal 2-10 record against the Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars in that span, making it easy to see why the Colts haven't won the division.

Like Ballard, Steichen has plenty he must improve on, and arguments can be made that he deserves to be fired as well. But in NFL circles, Steichen is seen as a good head coach and a great offensive playcaller who would be heavily sought after in a year lacking standout head coaching candidates. If Steichen were to be let go by the Colts this year, he would be the top option available and would likely find another head coaching gig in short order.

It was very unlikely that Steichen would be fired if Ballard was retained. Steichen is the third head coach of the Ballard era, and the second chosen by the GM himself. If Steichen goes, so does Ballard, and that was not happening.

Last Chance

Indianapolis Colts General Manager Chris Ballard opens his pre-draft press conference at the Colts headquarters, the Indiana Farm Bureau Football Center. | Kelly Wilkinson/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

2026 truly feels like the last chance for Ballard and Steichen to turn the Colts around. While some may roll their eyes at this notion, considering Ballard has survived this long, everything is lining up for this to be the end if the team does not succeed.

Ballard's contract is up following the 2026 season. The contracts of many of the core players for the Colts are either expiring following 2026 as well, or are structured in a way that would allow Indy to cut ties with minimal penalty. It would be a natural time to hit the reset button.

The 2026 plan for the Colts seems to be focused on running it back with the current group while retooling in key areas. The Colts plan to re-sign Jones and believe he will be ready to go from his Achilles injury by training camp. Indy also expects Gardner, Ward, and DeForest Buckner to return healthy and ready for next season.

The Colts will work to re-sign standout wide receiver Alec Pierce to a long-term deal, using the franchise tag if necessary. Ballard and his group can then focus on overhauling the pass rush and linebacker groups while adding depth at multiple areas across the roster. Time will tell how feasible this will be, as the Colts only possess around $45 million in cap space.

Regardless, it will be all about the results of the process for the 2026 season. If the Colts stay healthy, Jones returns to form, and the team makes it to the playoffs for the first time since 2020 and goes on a run, great! Everyone is happy, and the window is still open for this group.

But if 2026 produces more of the same, the Colts will move on from Ballard and (finally) bring in a new general manager. Irsay-Gordon can either fire Steichen as well to completely clean house or let the new GM decide Steichen's fate. The roster will be gutted, with most of the core being traded or cut to acquire cap space and draft picks.

From there, the rebuild will be in full effect. The 2027 season will be used to lay the foundation for the new regime. The 2028 NFL Draft will be the next time the Colts hold a first-round pick, and when they will likely be taking another swing to find their franchise quarterback of the future.

It may not have been what Colts fans wanted, but retaining Ballard and Steichen for next season has long been the most likely decision made by Irsay-Gordon. And if 2026 is more of the same, the most likely decision at this time next year will be to commence a complete teardown of the team as we know it.