Colts' Updated Path to Playoffs After Week 15

The Indianapolis Colts' path to the playoffs gets rougher every week.

Dec 14, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Philip Rivers (17) walks to the huddle during the first quarter against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field. | Kevin Ng-Imagn Images

The Indianapolis Colts, who fell from the one seed in the AFC to completely out of the postseason, still have time to save their season with three games left on the schedule.

Last weekend's loss against the Seattle Seahawks proved that the Colts can still hang with top teams, no matter who's under center. It's hard to believe that a roster this talented could waste an eight-win start, but it's looking more and more probable.

With that in mid, the Colts need to win at least two of their next three games to have a shot at playoff football. Let's take a look at the playoff scenarios for Indy.

Colts Need Losses From AFC Foes

Houston Texans wide receiver Jaylin Noel (14) is tackled by Indianapolis Colts linebacker Buddy Johnson (59) on Sunday, Nov. 30, 2025, during a game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. | Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

After Week 15, the Colts are 8-6 and one game behind the 7th-seeded 9-5 Houston Texans. The Colts will travel to Houston in Week 18, but Indy needs them to drop another game to have a realistic shot. The Texans will host the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 16, a game they will likely win. They'll then travel to the West Coast to take on the Los Angeles Chargers, a game that will have massive implications for Indy.

The Colts already have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chargers, so it's not the worst-case scenario if Houston beats them. The Chargers will also face the Dallas Cowboys and Denver Broncos on the road.

If the Chargers lose out, they'll be sitting at 10-7. That would mean the Colts would have to win at least two games to match their record and steal their playoff spot.

The Jaguars face the Broncos on the road, the Colts on the road, and the Titans at home. If they beat Tennessee, they'll likely take home the division crown.

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Who do the Colts Face?

Dec 14, 2025; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) throws a pass during the fourth quarter against the Tennessee Titans at Levi's Stadium. | Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

The Colts will play at home against the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football this week, at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars next week, and on the road against the Houston Texans to wrap up the regular season.

All three are playoff-level squads, making the Colts' path to the postseason all the more difficult. Obviously, divisional games carry the most weight, but considering the Jaguars are now two games ahead of Indy, there's a slim chance of them falling out of the lead.

If the Colts lose on MNF against San Fran, the playoff odds will be grim. Winning out nearly guarantees a playoff spot, but with Rivers under center, that's pretty much a lost cause.

Basically, if the Colts win two of their last three matchups and get some help from the Chargers, Texans, or Jaguars, a playoff spot won't be out of question.

The easiest path would be for the Chargers to lose out. Their schedule is by far the toughest of any of those three teams, but Jim Harbaugh's squad has proven to be one of the league's best.

The Texans and Jaguars have been hot, winning six and five games in a row, respectively. The odds of them losing twice seem low, but the Colts have the power to hand them one each.