Fernando Mendoza Declaring for the NFL Draft Is Good News for Washington

ASHBURN, Va. –– The Washington Commanders got some really good draft-related news this week when Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza announced on Instagram that he is declaring for the NFL Draft this April, officially ending his collegiate career.

Don’t panic, however, I’m not suggesting it’s good news because the Commanders might consider going after the quarterback, but because a team ahead of them and their No. 7 overall pick in the first round might.

Mel Kiper’s projection

In his latest mock draft, ESPN’s Mel Kiper has Mendoza going first overall to the Las Vegas Raiders, six picks ahead of the first time Washington is scheduled to go on the clock.

“This is an easy one. The Raiders traded a third-round pick for Geno Smith less than a year ago, but it hasn't worked out. He finished the 2025 season ranked 27th of 28 qualified passers in QBR (34.1), throwing 17 interceptions over 15 games. And with a new coach (to be determined) coming in, it's time for a fresh start,” Kiper stays. “Mendoza could join Joe Burrow and Cam Newton in going undefeated for the season, winning the Heisman Trophy and the national championship, and going No. 1 in the draft all inside a 12-month window. Mendoza transferred to the Hoosiers from Cal and immediately leveled up, throwing 41 touchdown passes and just six interceptions in 2025. I see great ball placement on the tape, and he's a no-brainer to begin Round 1. Las Vegas could start to build something offensively here with Mendoza, running back Ashton Jeanty, and tight end Brock Bowers.”

Of course, quarterbacks going early in the draft is a tradition that goes right along with fireworks on the 4th of July. But just because we assume quarterbacks will go early, that doesn’t make one entering the fray who might push a good position player down to No. 7 any less important.

Indiana's Fernando Mendoza (15) looks downfield during the College Football Playoff National Championship college football game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens on Monday, Jan. 19, 2026. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The quarterback domino effect

Because the bottom line is Mendoza could have chosen to return to school, just like Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore did. Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah also opted to stay in school and has since entered the transfer portal, deciding against taking his No. 5 position group rating according to Kiper and trying to boost that stock through the offseason and combine circuit.

The problem is, however, that with Mendoza, the only real ‘blue-chip’ quarterback projected right now in April’s selection meeting, players like Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese and Texas Tech EDGE David Bailey don’t have any others in the way of going in the top six before the Commanders could potentially sit and pick either of them.

In fact, the next quarterback off the board, according to Kiper’s late-January projection, is Alabama Crimson Tide prospect Ty Simpson at No. 16 to the New York Jets.

Some are bound to have higher expectations of Simpson than Kiper, of course, but Washington fans who want to see key players continue to slide down the board past No. 2 need to pull for the quarterback to have a solid buildup to the draft.

Both Reese and Bailey come off the board ahead of No. 7 in Kiper’s mock, but Washington does land Miami (FL) defensive end Rueben Bain in its current spot. Showing that the good news is, even if no more than one quarterback goes in the top six, there’s still a solid player or two waiting at No. 7.

Stick with CommanderGameday and the Locked On Commanders podcast for more FREE coverage of the Washington Commanders throughout the 2025 season.

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