Cowboys vs. Texans Predictions: Majority of NFL Expert Picks Don't Believe in Dallas

Both the Houston Texans and Dallas Cowboys desperately need a win in Week 4, but the majority of experts see the Cowboys falling short.

Houston Texans cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. (24) defends a pass intended for Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) during the second half at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

The Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans enter their Week 4 game in a must-win situation after their combined 1-5 start to the 2026 season. Dallas is 1-2, while Houston is 0-3.

If there is any team that knows how to climb out of an 0-3 hole, it's the Texans, who did so in 2025. Nevertheless, if Houston falls to 0-4, they can pretty much kiss their season goodbye, as just a single team has made the playoffs after such a start since 1990. That team is the 1992 San Diego Chargers.

As for the Cowboys, a 1-3 start isn't necessarily a death sentence, as 37 teams have made the playoffs after a 1-3 start since 1990. Since the playoffs expanded to 14 teams in 2020, seven teams overcame a 1-3 start, including last year's Texans and Carolina Panthers.

This will be the eighth matchup between these two franchises, with the Cowboys winning four of them. However, the Texans got the better of Dallas last time they met in 2024.

So, do the vast majority of experts think the Texans are headed for a fourth loss? Or do they think Dallas will have a 1-3 hole to climb out of following Week 4? Let's find out.

MMQB

Houston Texans defensive end Will Anderson Jr. (51) reacts to sacking Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) (not pictured) at Reliant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

• Albert Breer: Texans
• Eva Geitheim: Texans
• Mitch Goldich: Cowboys
• Mike Kadlick: Texans
• Gilberto Manzano: Texans
• Conor Orr: Texans
• John Pluym: Texans
• Matt Verderame: Cowboys

ESPN

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) passes from his own end zone during the game against the Baltimore Ravens at Maracana Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

• Matt Bowen: Cowboys
• Mike Clay: Cowboys
• Jeremy Fowler: Texans
• Dan Graziano: Texans
• Kalyn Kahler: Cowboys
• Pamela Maldonado: Cowboys
• Eric Moody: Cowboys
• Jason Reid: Cowboys
• Ben Solak: Texans
• Lindsey Thiry: Cowboys
• Seth Wickersham: Texans

CBS Sports

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) drops back to pass against the Indianapolis Colts in the first half at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

• Pete Prisco: Texans
• Jared Dubin: Texans
• Ryan Wilson: Texans
• John Breech: Texans
• Tyler Sullivan: Cowboys
• Dave Richard: Texans
• Jamey Eisenberg: Texans

NFL.com

Dallas Cowboys head coach Brian Schottenheimer looks on during the game against the Baltimore Ravens at Maracana Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

• Jeremy Bergman: Cowboys
• Brooke Cersosimo: Cowboys
• Gennaro Filice: Texans
• Bobby Kownack: Cowboys
• Dan Parr: Texans

Final expert tally

Houston Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans reacts during the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Reliant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

• Texans: 18
• Cowboys: 13

This is a troubling matchup for the Cowboys for multiple reasons.

For starters, the Texans have a good enough secondary to force Dak Prescott to hold on to the ball for at least a bit longer than he normally would, which gives an elite Texans pass-rush more time to get home. We're not sure Dallas' offensive line can hold up against that group to begin with, let alone for extra time.

That's going to make things difficult on Prescott and Co, and there may not be any relief from the rushing attack, as Houston sports the fifth-best run defense in the NFL, also.

The Texans have actually been better on offense than they have been on defense, and especially in the passing attack, which is terrible news for Dallas' injury-plagued secondary that was struggling even before all of the injuries.

Dallas' pass defense isn't even the worst thing about its defense, as the Cowboys sport one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, which could allow a struggling Texans ground game to flourish.

I'm just not sure Dallas has what it takes to slow down Houston's offense, and the Texans' defense, which is far better than what it has put on paper this season, has the ability to limit what the Cowboys can do offensively.

Ultimately, a desperate Texans team holds serve at home and puts the Cowboys in a precarious spot with a 1-3 record going into Week 5.

Final score: Texans 27, Cowboys 21