Will Rashan Gary Trade Come Back to Haunt the Cowboys?

The criticism surrounding the Rashan Gary trade won't die down, but is it actually fair?

Green Bay Packers defensive lineman Rashan Gary during the game against the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

We have heard throughout the offseason that the Dallas Cowboys overpaid for pass rusher Rashan Gary. As soon as the deal was announced, the criticism started pouring in.

To their credit, Dallas tried to make a big splash as they were in negotiations with the Las Vegas Raiders for Maxx Crosby. They made a competitive offer, but the Raiders decided to trade Crosby to the Baltimore Ravens. That trade fell through for Baltimore, but the Cowboys decided to go a different route when their offer wasn't accepted.

The Cowboys landed Gary for a fourth-round pick, giving them an experienced pass-rusher at their biggest position of need. Dallas also saved a significant amount of money, as Gary took a pay cut that lowered his cap hit to less than $6 million in 2026 and $8.5 million in 2027.

Despite this, the move continues to face criticism. The latest comes from SI.com's Eva Geitheim, who selected the Gary trade as the move that could come back to haunt the Cowboys. She was complimentary of many of their moves, but said the fourth-round pick was an overpay while adding that Gary may have been cut anyway.

"If there’s one thing the Cowboys could have done differently, it was the Rashan Gary trade, which saw them send a 2027 fourth-rounder to the Packers for Gary. As part of the trade, Gary took a pay cut to join Dallas. While this is far from the worst move, it was a bit of an overpay for Gary, who was a potential cut candidate anyway," Geitheim wrote.

Waiting for a player to be cut is not a strategy

Green Bay Packers defensive end Rashan Gary runs onto the field before the game against the Carolina Panthers. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

By no means is Geitheim the only analyst to say the Cowboys should have just waited for Gary to be cut. That seems to be a common theme in criticizing Jerry Jones for making this move, but waiting for a player to be cut is not a wise strategy.

First, it's assuming that the player actually will become available, which is never a guarantee. If Gary was willing to take a cut to join Dallas, there's no guarantee Green Bay would have released him. A restructured contract could have kept him with the Packers, eliminating any chance the Cowboys could sign him as a free agent.

There's also the consideration of time. Green Bay might not have cut Gary at the start of free agency, and could have hung onto him until the end of training camp before finally deciding to make a move. Should that be the case, they would be adding an defensive player late in the year, much like they did with Kenny Clark in 2025. That means it would've taken him time to adapt to their defense. The Cowboys understand this, so they were proactive rather than reactive, and added a player who fills a major need, and ensured he would be part of their entire offseason program in doing so.

Another factor to consider is that there's no guarantee you would sign the player should he be cut. If Gary hit the open market, there would likely have been several teams willing to sign him for the same contract that he agreed to with Dallas. By sending a fourth-round pick, the Cowboys ensured they were the only ones that were able to negotiate with him and understood what their floor at EDGE would be.

Critics often overvalue draft picks

Dallas Cowboys EDGE Malachi Lawrence goes through a drill during practice at the Ford Center at the Star Training Facility. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The biggest criticism is that Dallas overpaid by surrendering a fourth-round pick. That argument assumes any fourth-round selection would have developed into a meaningful contributor, which history shows is far from guaranteed.

Analysts are often guilty of overvaluing picks, but if you pay attention to what NFL teams actually do, fourth-round picks are highly tradeable. Take for example the trade Dallas made during the NFL draft. At pick No. 20, they had their eyes on Malachi Lawrence, but decided to move back three spots to pick No. 23.

They made a trade with a divisional rival, the Philadelphia Eagles, who gave up two fourth-round picks to move up three spots for wide receiver Makai Lemon. That means Dallas was not only able to recoup the draft pick they gave up for Gary, but they added another while still landing the player they had their sights set on.

If fourth-round picks were as valuable as they are assumed to be, then such a trade would've been incredibly difficult to pull off. In the end, the Gary selection might not work out. That said, the Cowboys added a player who is actually a few months younger than Crosby, makes significantly less money, and they only gave up a fourth-round pick in doing so.

Even if Gary doesn't live up to expectations, it's hard to see how the Cowboys could regret this trade, let alone be haunted by it. They addressed one of the league's most valuable positions with a proven veteran, secured him at a reduced salary, and only gave up a fourth-round pick to do it. That's a gamble most contenders would gladly take.

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