Dolphins Saturday Mailbag: What Are the Implications of a Week 1 Win or Loss?

Part 1 of a Miami Dolphins On SI mailbag heading into. the 2026 season opener:

From Mark Lever:

If we beat the Raiders by a lot of points, is that more about how good of a team that we might be or how bad of a team they might be?

Hey Mark, I would caution against making any types of judgments regardless of what happens at Allegiant Stadium on Sunday or what the final score might be. It’s one game and things can spiral at times — as we saw in Week 3 in 2023 with that 70-20 blowout of the Broncos. At the very least, a blowout win against the Raiders certainly would beat any alternative, but it shouldn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things, just like the Rams losing by 20 points against the 49ers mean much in the big picture.

From rickhernandez:

Hello Alain, would Ryan Fitzpatrick’s 0-17 prediction still co-exist with the Dolphins’ non-record-based goals for a successful season or would it be an early indicator that things are definitely not going as planned?

Hey Rick, even though the 2026 season isn’t about the won-loss record (or at least shouldn’t be), finishing 0-17 would be very bad in two regards: First, it likely would indicate a lack of progress and development through the season; and, two, it probably would suggest that Malik Willis isn’t the answer at quarterback and not enough of the young players established themselves as future contributors because if those things did happen, then the Dolphins likely wouldn’t finish 0-17. So, no, it’s impossible to envision anything good coming out of a winless season beyond having the top overall pick. But that still would be a very bad start for the rebuilding project.

From Craig:

What are the top 3 things you are most anxious to see Sunday. Mine would be Willis’ play in general; the offensive line; and what they have done, if anything, to make the most out of less than ideal secondary.

Hey Craig, Willis absolutely would be at the top for me, but I’ll differ with the next two. Second for me would be how Chris Bell and Caleb Douglas (and to a lesser degree Kevin Coleman Jr.) look at wide receiver, and then next would how Jacob Rodriguez looks at linebacker because this season is about Willis and the rookies for me.

From Dave Campbell:

Greetings Alain ! I have to call Sunday's game a coin toss. Two rookie HCs. One who a previous college HC with limited success. The other who grew up with a former QB, worked his way up the coaching ranks to be a Super Bowl winning HC. An older Kirk Cousins testing a unproven secondary. QB with very limited actual starts in NFL. The list could go on. Thoughts ? Also, is it just me or do all these numbers on these players in certain positions drive you nuts ? Give me the days with WRs with 80s, LBs with 50s, etc. Always look forward to both All Dolphins Podcast (which I shamelessly now have earned a top 5% hype member) and Dolphins Collective. Written work on Dolphins on SI.Com coverage before kickoff has been terrific !

Thanks as always, Dave. Yeah, I do see this matchup as being pretty even without a significant advantage anywhere. We could add to your comparison two talented young running backs with De’Von Achane and Ashton Jeanty, and no proven receiving option on either side (with Brock Bowers out with his knee issue). And I’m definitely with you when it comes to the numbers thing.

HOW BIG IS THE BROCK BOWERS ABSENCE?

From Jorge francisco boyd:

Hi Alain, does the team have a better chance of winning — let’s say 60% — against the Raiders without Brock Bowers; how do you think the miami WR will do against the Raiders CB?

Hey Jorge, there is absolutely zero doubt that Bowers being out greatly helps the Dolphins’ outlook in this game because he’s their biggest difference-maker on offense (and I’m not sure there’s a close second). While I have high hopes for Chris Bell and Caleb Douglas, I’m not sure I’d expect big numbers for either in their first NFL game. I’m thinking something along the lines of five catches, 65 yards for each.

From Jayco:

With three rookie wide receivers expected to play the majority of snaps, how nervous does this make this coaching staff?

Hey Jayco, I don’t know that the coaching staff is going to be nervous about much because they’re fully aware this season is about playing a lot of rookies and watching and ensuring their development. Jeff Hafley fully understands everything that entails, meaning dealing with rookie mistakes and growing pains. This is going to be necessary for the Dolphins to get where they want to go.

From Prince-Bishop Militantly Aardvark:

There's lot of talk online about the Dolphins doing things the allegedly “right” way. I wonder how that talk will hold up when big money becomes available next season and the roster looks threadbare and questionably drafted after a dreadful 2026-7. PS. I am not a kook!

Hey PBMA, not sure what you’re getting at here exactly, but Jon-Eric Sullivan has been adamant that the Dolphins will not be spending frivolously in free agency at any point. I also think it’s way premature to talk about anything being “questionably drafted.” I think it’s too harsh, though I get Dolphins fans being accustomed to expecting disappointment after what they’ve been enduring throughout the 2000s.

From Curt Rosenstein:

Do you feel this year’s team has "Bad Juju"

Hey Curt, love the reference. I use it very often myself after seeing it in “Silver Linings Playbook” (great flick). And, no, I don’t believe this team has “bad juju.” On the contrary, I think everything has gone very smoothly since the start of camp, with the exceptions of the injuries to Grant and Moore and those aren’t season-ending. It’s a different contrast to last year when there really was “bad juju” heading into the 2026 season, which I kept mentioning before the blowout loss at Indy.

From Crash Jensen:

I’m sure you’ve answered this in the offseason, so I’m sorry I missed your take on this: How much will the absence of any deep receiving threats impact Achane’s productivity? How much will his average yards per run go down? Will they use him more as a pass catcher?

Hey Crash, yes, not having Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will hurt Achane’s run production to a certain degree, but it’s also counterbalanced to a point by having a quarterback who can hurt defenses with his running ability. I don’t know that Achane will be used more as a pass catcher because he was used pretty often last year. The whole goal is to not be too Achane-centric, but rather have multiple options to make plays on offense.

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