3 Bold Predictions for Dolphins vs. Jets in Week 4

The Miami Dolphins will play their third divisional matchup of the season against the New York Jets on Monday night, and both teams will be looking for their first win.

Like always, we’re here to make three bold predictions for the game. The Dolphins haven’t had many big performances this season, so these haven’t hit a ton. However, a home game against an equally struggling team is a good opportunity to turn things around.

Let’s get into it.

Miami’s Defense Allows Fewer Than 20 Points

The Dolphins’ defense is not off to a good start this season. No team has blitzed opposing quarterbacks more and generated fewer pressures.

It’s a huge problem, and one of several reasons the team sits at 0-3 with little to show for its defensive effort. However, the Jets’ offense does feel like a unit the Dolphins can at least match up well against.

Justin Fields has been cleared after missing a game with a concussion protocol and will start. He’s put up some solid numbers against the Dolphins before, but if they can keep him bottled up in the pocket, he won’t burn them too much.

As for receiver, the only remotely threatening presence is Garrett Wilson. He’s quite good, but the Dolphins can roll coverage to his side of the field all game if they want to.

The running game is led by Breece Hall, who is a talented but inconsistent player. Miami’s defensive line has underperformed this season, but it has the talent to match up with the Jets’ up-and-coming offensive line group.

If the Dolphins’ defense gets gashed by this Jets offense, we might have to leave them off the bold predictions for the rest of the season. It’s not a bad unit by any means, but it’s one Miami should have some success against.

Dolphins Generate 4+ Plays of More Than 20 Yards

Where are the explosive plays? It is a question Dolphins fans have been asking themselves since the start of the 2024 season.

We’ve covered the on-field reasons for the regression a few times, but facing the Jets defense is a great opportunity for the Dolphins to break out of their slump. New York’s defense has allowed the most plays of more than 20 yards this season (16).

Of those 16 explosive plays, 13 have come through the air. New cornerback Brandon Stephens is struggling quite a bit, and Sauce Gardner has lost downfield a few times as well.

The Jets even made a trade for cornerback Jarvis Brownlee Jr. last week to bolster the group. He won't play Monday, but either way the Jets’ secondary is a new group of players learning a new scheme and is struggling.

Both of Miami’s top receivers have had success against better versions of the Jets defense, too. Jaylen Waddle has recorded at least 90 yards in three of his last four games against New York, and Tyreek Hill has done the same in two of his last three.

If the Dolphins are going to win downfield through the air this season, this is the time to start doing it.

Zach Sieler Gets 1 Sack + 3 Pressures

This might not seem like the boldest take in the world, but Zach Sieler has underperformed quite a bit this season. His pressure percentage of 2.6 is shockingly low, and the film isn’t kind to him, either.

Sieler just got a contract extension and is one of the team’s best leaders. If the Dolphins are going to turn it around this season, they need Sieler to play up to the standard he set in the last two seasons.

The interior of the Jets’ line is not a bad group. Guards Joe Tippmann and John Simpson, along with center Josh Myers, are more than capable of holding up.

We’re more or less betting on Sieler to break out because he’s due for some regression to the mean than anything else. Perhaps the Dolphins will try to line him up at nose tackle in obvious pass-rush situations.

That would put him on Myers, who came into the season as a backup, but was put into the starting lineup after Alijah Vera-Tucker’s injury.

The Dolphins' defense won’t sustain much success until Sieler finds another gear this season. The rest of the interior is filled with young, inexperienced players or middling veterans.

He needs to get going on Monday night.

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