Why the Dolphins Will Defeat the Raiders in Week 16, Why They Will Lose, And What's Actually Going to Happen

The Miami Dolphins will look for their ninth victory in 11 games but more importantly to keep pace in the AFC playoff race when they face the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on Saturday night.

The Dolphins (9-5) are coming off a 22-12 victory against the New England Patriots, while the Raiders are barely clinging to playoff hopes after a 30-27 overtime loss against the Los Angeles Chargers left them with a 7-7 record.

Here are different ways this game could play out:

The Dolphins will win because ...

-- The simple reason of all: They're a better team.

-- They'll use the same formula that's been so successful, specifically a couple of takeaways on defense and a big play on special teams.

-- The Dolphins running game will have another strong performance (though maybe not 250 yards again), with Myles Gaskin coming back to team up with former University of Washington teammate Salvon Ahmed.

RELATED: What Gaskin's Return Means

-- DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki both will return after missing a game and each will catch a touchdown pass.

-- Tua Tagovailoa will throw downfield more than he has all season and come up with his second 300-yard outing.

-- Xavien Howard will pick off Derek Carr or Marcus Mariota ... or both.

-- Carr will start 10 days after sustaining a groin injury and he won't be mobile enough to get away from the Dolphins pass rush.

-- Mariota will come into the game at some point and the Dolphins secondary will take advantage of his inconsistent accuracy.

-- The Dolphins defense will shut down Josh Jacobs the same way they shut down Clyde Edwards-Helaire of the Chiefs two Sundays ago.

-- The secondary will double-team tight end Darren Waller to keep him somewhat in check.

-- Lynn Bowden Jr. will have a big game against the team that gave up on him just a few months after taking him in the third round of the 2020 NFL draft.

-- The Raiders will continue to find ways to lose as their late-season slide hits five losses in six games.

The Dolphins will lose because ...

-- Carr not only will come back from his injury but have a big passing performance, continuing what has been a strong season for him.

-- Mariota will come in at some point and give the Dolphins defense all sorts of problems with his running ability, the way he did against the Chargers in the Thursday night game of Week 15 when he had 88 rushing yards in three quarters of action.

-- The Dolphins run defense, which has had issues at times, will not be able to slow down Josh Jacobs.

-- Raiders rookie wide receiver Henry Ruggs III, who hasn't caught more than three passes in any game this season, will get behind the Dolphins secondary for a long reception.

-- The Dolphins defense won't have an answer for Waller, who'll go over 100 receiving yards for the third time in four games.

-- Defensive end Maxx Crosby will be a problem for the Dolphins offensive line and sack Tagovailoa twice.

-- Safety Johnathan Abram will force a turnover with a big hit from the secondary.

What actually will happen ...

I'm back to having the same prediction record as the Dolphins' actual record (9-5) after incorrectly predicting a loss against New England.

After being 1.5-point favorites against the Patriots, the Dolphins now are 3-point favorites against a Raiders team fading badly down the stretch for a second consecutive season.

This looked like a much tougher matchup for the Dolphins, say, about a month ago when the Raiders were 6-3 and absolutely looked like a playoff team.

Now, Las Vegas' hopes are down to them winning their last two games, having the Dolphins lose at Buffalo in Week 17 AND having Baltimore lost its final two games, including against Cincinnati.

So, not likely.

That doesn't mean the Raiders aren't going to play hard, though it means they might not have as much fight in them if things start off poorly.

The biggest difference between those teams — between the Dolphins and many teams, actually — is that the Dolphins usually find ways to pull out tough games and the Raiders find ways to lose them.

The great quarterback mystery involving Derek Carr, who somehow did not even get a game status designation just 10 days after sustaining what looked like a fairly significant groin injury, has added intrigue to this matchup.

Can he play the whole game? Will coach Jon Gruden rotate in Marcus Mariota?

That obviously creates problems for the defense because of their wildly contrasting styles — even if Brian Flores tried this week to praise Carr's running ability, he's just not the same kind of runner as Mariota.

Anybody who watched the Raiders defeat the Chiefs at Kansas City and then give them all they could handle in Las Vegas has to be somewhat surprised at their late-season collapse. Sure, injuries have been a factor, but every team has to deal with those at this time of year.

Look no further than the Dolphins having to play New England without Mike Gesicki or DeVante Parker, and what that left them with on offense.

And yet the Dolphins found a way. Because that's what they do.

And it says here they'll find a way again in this matchup against the Raiders, though it won't be easy.

Dolphins 23, Raiders 20

Add us as a preferred source on Google