FalconsSI Staff Unanimous in Atlanta Falcons vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Predictions

The Atlanta Falcons will open the 2026 regular season on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers, with both teams entering Week 1 carrying plenty of questions.

For Atlanta, the biggest storyline is under center. Cooper Rush will make his first start for the Falcons with Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. unavailable. Kevin Stefanski will also make his regular-season debut as Atlanta's head coach.

The Steelers enter the matchup with their own set of questions, but veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers and head coach Mike McCarthy give Pittsburgh an experienced combination. Meanwhile, Atlanta will lean heavily on Bijan Robinson and a defense that must find ways to generate pressure despite missing James Pearce Jr. and Jalon Walker.

The Falcons On SI staff were unanimous with their game day projections, but the projected margin varies.

Garrett Chapman: Steelers 20, Falcons 14

The Falcons and Steelers will be a matchup of two unknown teams, but with one having enjoyed far more regular-season success than the other. Atlanta is a team in transition, while Pittsburgh feels more like a team giving it one final go with aging stars.

Bijan Robinson is good enough to win a few games on his own, but it is unlikely to be this one unless Cooper Rush can play some above-average football. The improved trenches will help slow an underrated Steeler run game, but it will not be enough.

Darius Hayes: Steelers 24, Falcons 10

Atlanta enters the matchup in a difficult situation, leaving Cooper Rush to make the start. I expect Kevin Stefanski to lean heavily on Bijan Robinson and the running game while trying to keep Rush in manageable situations, but Pittsburgh's defense should make it difficult for Atlanta to sustain drives and consistently create points.

Defensively, I expect the Falcons to keep the game competitive early, but the lack of consistent pass-rush production could become a major problem against Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers. Atlanta has enough talent to make some plays, but without Tua or Penix available and with key defensive pieces missing, I don't see the Falcons generating enough offense to keep pace. Pittsburgh eventually pulls away in the second half, handing Stefanski a tough 24-10 loss in his first regular-season game as Atlanta's head coach.

Gerald Thomas, III: Steelers 28, Falcons 13

The Falcons are entering Week 1 with much of the attention on quarterback Cooper Rush as he starts for the injured Tua Tagovailoa. But questions remain on how the defense performs without the services of the young and talented edge rushers James Pearce Jr. and Jalon Walker.

Kevin Stefanski-coached teams also don’t perform the best in Week 1’s, holding a 2-4 record. Facing a reunited Aaron Rodgers-Mike McCarthy tandem pits Atlanta against a working formula of one of the sharpest minds at quarterback, a coach who knows how to utilize him, and a generally successful partnership.

Scott Kennedy: Steelers 23, Falcons 13

The Falcons' starting quarterback was unemployed on July 28th as 100+ quarterbacks reported to NFL training camps. Cooper Rush had a 48.8 passer rating in four games with the Baltimore Ravens last season, including two starts. This feels like a running theme with the Falcons, a talented squad undone by subpar quarterback play.

Jerry Jones, Falcons Podcast: Steelers 20, Falcons 13

The Falcons' situation at quarterback is laughably bad. I’m not particularly high on Tua, but to have him go down while Penix is still recovering from injury feels like something that would only happen to the Falcons.

But as bleak as it looks, the Falcons have a good opportunity to shock some folks and upset the Steelers. Although the Falcons have questions at defensive line, the Steelers have questions of their own at offensive line. Spencer Anderson and Dylan Cook are stepping in at right guard and right tackle after starting last season as backups. They'll have their hands full with this blitz-happy Jeff Ulbrich scheme.

And while the Steelers defense has a lot of talent, they weren’t as dominant last year as in years past. Their biggest weakness is at linebacker. I expect the Falcons to try to exploit this, especially in the pass game. Linebackers Patrick Queen and Payton Wilson had PFF coverage grades of 31.3 and 48.5, respectively.

I think the biggest thing to watch will be whether the Falcons' offensive line can hold up against an excellent Steelers defensive line. Can the Falcons keep Cooper Rush upright, and will they be able to move defenders in the run game to open up lanes for Bijan Robinson?

Ultimately, I think this will be a defensive struggle where the Steelers outlast the Falcons by a touchdown.

The Verdict

The Falcons On SI staff is unanimous in picking Pittsburgh to win, with the four predictions ranging from a six-point Steelers victory to a 15-point margin.

The common theme is Atlanta's quarterback situation. With Rush making the start and both Tua and Penix unavailable, the Falcons will likely lean on Robinson and the running game while attempting to limit the pressure placed on their veteran quarterback.

At the same time, Atlanta's defense will have to find a way to slow Rodgers without two of its most talented young pass rushers. For Stefanski, it will be a difficult test in his first regular-season game as the Falcons' head coach.

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