Potential Falcons QB1 Tua Tagovailoa Could Face Critical Late-Season Test

The Atlanta Falcons have a quarterback battle on their hands, and could the weather actually make a difference?

Former Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is in a battle for the starting spot on the Atlanta Falcons with Michael Penix Jr. | Scott Kennedy

As Tua Tagovailoa competes with Michael Penix Jr. for the Atlanta Falcons’ starting quarterback job, his summer performance must carry into the latter half of the season to ensure job security.

Tagovailoa, the former Miami Dolphins quarterback, went 0-6 in NFL games that kicked off at 40 degrees or less. Additionally, he’s 4-13 when a game is 55 degrees or lower. The new Falcon, who inked a one-year deal in March, is 44-32 overall as a starter.

Though the Dolphins play in sunny South Florida, Tagovailoa was often exposed to cold temperatures as a member of the AFC East. The four-team division includes Miami and all northern teams: the Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, and New England Patriots.

Now, with Atlanta, Tagovailoa may not be required to play many cold games, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Florida, the New Orleans Saints playing in a dome, and the Carolina Panthers, the northernmost team. However, conditions can sometimes be chilly in Charlotte.

But that doesn’t mean Tagovailoa is in the clear.

Fresh off a bye week, the Falcons will play a critical stretch of their season, with playoff implications likely on the line. 

Atlanta will visit the Minnesota Vikings for a Week 12 game on Nov. 29. However, Tagovailoa, if starting, won’t be under the duress of the cold temperatures since the Vikings play in the climate-controlled and enclosed U.S. Bank Stadium.

Week 14 will be at the Cleveland Browns for a 1 p.m. kickoff as new Falcons head coach Kevin Stefanski clashes with the team that fired him this January on Dec. 13. Per AccuWeather, Cleveland’s average historical high is 41 degrees with lows of 31.

Week 15, on Dec. 20, Atlanta travels to face the Washington Commanders at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland, an outer suburb of D.C. For the 1 p.m. kickoff, Landover’s average high temperature is 45 degrees, and the low is 29.

The Falcons’ January 2027 regular-season finale is TBA at Carolina, where the average high in Charlotte for Week 18 is 52 degrees, and the average low is 32 degrees.

Home games for the Falcons during the final stretch will be against the Detroit Lions (Week 13/Dec. 6), the Buccaneers (Week 16/Date and Time TBD), and the Saints (Week 17/Jan. 3, 2027).

Tagovailoa must bring his best in Atlanta’s final stretch if he wants to shift the narrative around his mistiming, turnovers, and disrupted offensive rhythm in icy conditions.

In December 2025, Tagovailoa logged a cold, 41-degree victory in Week 14 against the Jets. He completed 13 of 21 passes for 127 yards and threw a touchdown as the Dolphins notched a 34-10 victory at MetLife Stadium.

Tagovailoa followed the next week at the Pittsburgh Steelers, completing 22 of 28 passes for 253 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception in a 28-15, 17-degree Monday Night Football loss at Acrisure Stadium. The defeat eliminated the Dolphins from playoff contention, and Tagovailoa was benched for the final three weeks of the NFL season.

Will Tagovailoa heat up in the cold if named Atlanta’s starter?

He’s proved he’s capable. Just see his snowy, 38-degree performance at the Bills in Dec. 2022: 27-for-43, 360 yards, two touchdowns, one crucial interception during a last-second loss, 32-29.

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