SI Predicts Doom and Gloom for Atlanta Falcons, Why They're Right, Why They're Wrong

The NFL released its full schedule on Thursday night, and the Atlanta Falcons' early slate looks daunting. They begin with three of four games on the road, and then come home to face arguably their toughest opponents in Baltimore, Chicago, and San Francisco. They then hit the road to face division favorite Tampa Bay to wind up their first eight games.

Sports Illustrated's Gilbert Manzano quickly released a prediction for every team's record once the schedules were publicized, and he doesn't like what he sees with the Falcons. He predicted the Falcons to go 5-12 and finish last in an improved NFC South.

"Similar to Carolina, Atlanta also has concerns at quarterback, but this situation might be worse because it’s still unknown who will start," Manzano wrote on SI. "Michael Penix Jr. is recovering from a torn ACL, and when he’s cleared, he might have to compete with Tua Tagovailoa for the job.

"Part of me wants to see what Tagovailoa can do with Drake London, Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts, but there were more lows than highs during his six seasons with the Dolphins. Maybe the league expects more from this team, with the Falcons getting three consecutive prime-time games from Weeks 3-5 against the Packers, Saints, and Ravens."

Why He's Right

Penix is already throwing and will compete with Tagovailoa for the starting position. He's on track to be ready by the season opener on September 13th in Pittsburgh, but they'll have the luxury of not rushing him with Tagovailoa at worst, an experienced backup.

That said, neither quarterback played particularly well last season. Penix and Tagovailoa finished tied for 24th in the NFL in passer rating with an identical score of 88.5. It was the lowest number of Tagovailoa's six-year career.

Penix was hamstrung by an overly cautious approach that saw him throw only nine touchdowns in nine games last season.

Why He's Wrong

There are big questions around the quarterback position for sure, but the Falcons went 8-9 with Penix and Kirk Cousins. Atlanta went 5-3 in the eight games Cousins started, and they did it while he had an even worse passer rating of 84.8, 29th in the NFL.

Still just 28 years old, Tagovailoa's worst season was still better than Cousins' numbers last year. Just two years ago, Tagovailoa had a 101.4 passer rating in 11 games, good for 9th in the NFL.

Are there question marks at quarterback? Yes.

Did the Falcons' quarterback room improve with Tagovailoa coming in for a 37-year-old Kirk Cousins? The numbers would also say yes.

And we're supposed to believe the team is a full three games worse off because of the Cousins to Tagovailoa downgrade?

No.

Why He's Right

The defense took a big step forward last season in large part because of an aggressive style that saw them set a franchise record with 57 sacks. However, defensive tackle David Onyemata and linebacker Kaden Elliss were key members of the defense, and their replacements don't look like upgrades.

Dee Alford filled in nicely for starting nickel Billy Bowman Jr. after an Achilles injury and earned himself a fat free agent contract with the Buffalo Bills. There's no guarantee Bowman will be ready for the start of the season, or that he can remain healthy once he's back.

Why He's Wrong

For every player the Falcons lost in free agency, they took a multiple bodies approach to improve the depth. Elliss is gone, but the Falcons signed Christian Harris and Channing Tindall and drafted Kendal Daniels and Harold Perkins Jr.

They lost Onyemata but signed Da'Shawn Hand and Chris Williams, traded for Maason Smith, and drafted Anterio Thompson.

With the addition of Aevion Terrell in the draft, the Falcons have options to replace Alford, including Terrell and Mike Hughes.

The Falcons were a top-heavy team last year, but they lacked depth. New general manager Ian Cunningham's goal of raising the floor this offseason was clear.

Why He's Right

That opening slate of games looks brutal. A slow start to the season could quickly spiral into a 2-6 type of season. Three of four games on the road, including the Steelers, Packers, and Saints is a tough way to begin the season.

Then, to get the Ravens, Bears, and 49ers in consecutive weeks is a tough slate for any team. A slow first half of the year could turn the Falcons into sellers at the trade deadline as they prepare for 2027 with a high pick in the first round and a bunch of salary cap room.

Why He's Wrong

Having the toughest games at home could be a blessing for the Falcons if they outplay early expectations. Winning in Baltimore or San Francisco seems like a tough task (they're 0-3 all-time at Baltimore), but winning at home seems much more feasible. The Falcons were manhandled by the 49ers in San Francisco last year, but have won each of their last two home gams (2022 and 2016).

If the Falcons can survive the first half of their schedule, it eases up, on paper anyway, in the second half.

Bottom Line

Yes, the schedule is tougher, but it's hard to picture this team three games worse than they've been the last two seasons. There are tough questions at quarterback, but the Falcons had those questions last year, too; they just didn't know it. There was more optimism about Penix that didn't come to fruition, and they won eight games without good quarterback play last year.

The receiver room is improved, and the defense is deeper. FanDuel originally set the O/U on the win total for Atlanta at 5.5 before free agency. It's climbed to 7.5 today.

In another wide-open NFC South, it's possible the Falcons finish last in the division. It's just as possible they win it.

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