Predicting Every NFC Team’s Record Based on the 2026 Schedule

2026 NFL schedule | AFC record predictions | Conor Orr’s best games | The Rams and the league’s ‘creative Super Bowl’

With the entire 2026 NFL schedule released, it’s time to make final record predictions for the NFC teams, ones that I will stand by for the entire summer.

Recently, I tried to take credit for correctly predicting last May that the Panthers would win the NFC South, but my editor, Mitch Goldich, was quick to remind me that I wavered when it was time to make playoff predictions the week leading up to the season opener, going with the Buccaneers instead.

I’m disappointed in myself for not being as bold after training camps, but my editors should take some blame for asking me to make various predictions throughout the offseason, setting me up for frequent failure. I can’t always be right—my other editor, John Pluym, still reminds me about my 3–14 prediction for the Vikings when they went 14–3 in 2024.

Anyway, it’s all fun and games. Feel free to yell at me if you don’t agree with one of my final record predictions below. But before you do, here’s a refresher on what happened last year: Only one team repeated as division champions (Eagles), two went from last to first (Patriots, Bears) and six made the playoffs after missing it the year before, including four from the NFC. And not many had the Seahawks winning Super Bowl LX.

These surprising trends tend to happen every year in the NFL, which is why I get bold this time of year—until I let the criticism get to me and I cave come early September. There will be no wavering this year! Expect more bold predictions when Mitch asks for my full playoff bracket.

For now, here are the NFC final record predictions, and check out what my colleague Matt Verderame had for the AFC teams.

NFC EAST

Dallas Cowboys: 10–7

With all the defensive upgrades, that should be enough to get the Cowboys back in the postseason after failing to advance the past two seasons. Yes, they’re still missing an elite edge rusher, but safety Caleb Downs could be a star in his rookie year, and the pass-rushing rotation should be drastically better with the additions of Rashan Gary and Malachi Lawrence, the team’s other first-round pick in April.

Dallas will get to show off its new-look defense against John Harbaugh's Giants in the first Sunday Night Football matchup of the season. Then, Dallas comes home to face Washington. Divisional matchups tend to be tricky, but that’s two matchups out the gate vs. losing teams from last season.

Philadelphia Eagles: 8–9

Jalen Hurts will have to face a daunting schedule without A.J. Brown, the star receiver who will likely be traded come June 1. Philly is going to need an immediate impact from rookie receiver Makai Lemon, as the team prepares for a grueling schedule. In Weeks 3 to 5, the Eagles play at the Bears, host the Rams and travel to London to battle the Jaguars. But the three-game stretch between Weeks 15 and 17 might be tougher, with home games vs. Seattle and Houston before a road game to Santa Clara to face San Francisco.

Perhaps the addition of edge rusher Jonathan Greenard is enough to take the Eagles’ defense to the next level, which in turn could require less from the offense while Hurts gets acclimated to his new receivers and first-year OC Sean Mannion.

New York Giants: 7–10

The Giants should be better because they landed the most sought-after coach of the offseason. Still, it will be an uphill battle for Harbaugh to get fast results from a team that made several changes, including trading Dexter Lawrence II to Cincinnati. New York has two tough prime-time games to open the year, hosting Dallas and playing at the Rams.

However, if Jaxson Dart makes strides in Year 2 and Malik Nabers stays healthy, this could be a competitive squad in 2026. New York could be the favorite when it faces Arizona, Cleveland and Tennessee.

Washington Commanders: 5–12

On one hand, it’s easy to like this team based on all the moves it made in the offseason, including the first-round selection of linebacker Sonny Styles. But on the other hand, it’s hard to overlook how much the Commanders crumbled without Jayden Daniels last year. If he deals with injuries again, there’s not enough firepower offensively for this team to stay afloat.

Maybe the defense, with plenty of talent and depth, will be enough for Washington to survive any potential injury waves. But that’s not enough for me to change my mind on this prediction. The Commanders open at the Eagles, followed by a road game vs. the Cowboys before coming home to battle the Seahawks. Woof.

NFC NORTH

Detroit Lions: 12–5

I tend not to put too much stock into strength of schedule because so much changes year to year in the NFL. But this stacked roster, which probably needed a reset year after the departures of Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, should take advantage of having the easiest schedule, according to data from Sharp Football Analysis.

The Lions will face the Saints, Bills, Jets, Panthers and Cardinals to open the year. Don’t be surprised if they start 4–1. Also, coach Dan Campbell’s team got better on the offensive line with first-round rookie tackle Blake Miller and newcomer center Cade Mays.

Chicago Bears: 11–6*

The Caleb Williams hype is real based on what he showed in the second half of last season. If Williams enters superstar status in his third season, Chicago will be in the mix for the postseason for many years. However, this is still a young team, and it won’t catch opponents by surprise in 2026.

There could be a drop-off while Johnson waits for his inexperienced players to make the most of their opportunities, such as Rome Odunze stepping into the No. 1 wide receiver role after DJ Moore was traded to Buffalo. There could also be added pressure from having to play in seven stand-alone games.

Minnesota Vikings: 9–8*

I have my reservations about the Vikings and their new quarterback because Kyler Murray hasn’t been—well, Kyler Murray—for a few years now and has struggled to stay healthy. Still, I’m willing to make a small bet (No. 7 seed in the NFC) that coach Kevin O’Connell and star receiver Justin Jefferson will help revive the career of the quarterback who will turn 29 in August. We’ll know quickly how good this team can be in 2026, with a home date vs. Green Bay and a road clash at Chicago in the first two games of the season.

As for other concerns, there are a handful of questions along Brian Flores’s defensive front. The Vikings desperately need first-round rookie defensive tackle Caleb Banks to be the real deal to help with the departure of Greenard.

Green Bay Packers: 8–9

Packers fans haven’t been happy with me this offseason for my low grades on their draft and offseason. It’s hard to see where this team has improved, and it doesn’t help that Micah Parsons is rehabbing a torn ACL sustained in December. Also, Green Bay didn’t have a first-rounder because of the Parsons trade, waited until No. 52 to make a pick in April and saw a handful of notable departures, including wide receivers Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks.

Maybe I’m not accounting for improvements from younger players, such as wideout Matthew Golden, the 2025 first-round pick. But I stand by my grades and this prediction of their record. Also, here’s Green Bay’s schedule after a Week 11 bye: at Rams, at Saints, vs. Bills, vs. Dolphins, at Bears, vs. Texans and vs. Lions. That won’t be an easy stretch to end the regular season.

New Orleans Saints quarterback Tyler Shough — Saints quarterback Tyler Shough has all the ingredients to get the Saints back to the top of the NFC South. | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

NFC SOUTH

New Orleans Saints: 10–7

The Saints have all the ingredients to be the team that goes from last to first this season. First, they have a relatively soft schedule with home games against the Cardinals, Browns and Raiders. But starting the year on the road against the Lions and the Ravens could make or break this young squad. Still, New Orleans has an emerging young quarterback, Tyler Shough, who gets to throw to wide receivers Chris Olave and Jordyn Tyson, this year’s first-round pick.

It also helps that coach Kellen Moore showed flashes of being a difference-maker, keeping his team competitive despite a 1–8 start during his first year in New Orleans.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9–8

The Buccaneers have hit a wall that I don’t think they can overcome. They have had talented rosters since bringing in Baker Mayfield as their starting quarterback in 2023, but they constantly play down to their mediocre competition in the NFC South, and now their division rivals have improved this offseason.

Being average and winning more than eight games won’t be enough this season. Also, Tampa Bay took a hit with Mike Evans, Jamel Dean and Lavonte David no longer with the team. But maybe I’ll regret this prediction because the schedule-makers did the Buccaneers a favor by balancing out the slate.

Carolina Panthers: 6–11

On paper, the Panthers have an impressive roster, coming a long way since coach Dave Canales took over in 2024. But Bryce Young might be holding back this team due to his inconsistent performances since entering the league as the No. 1 pick three years ago.

Perhaps what Young did in the thrilling wild-card game against the Rams was the start of him turning a corner. Still, it’s hard to buy stock in Young, and Carolina now has to deal with a first-place schedule, with dates against the Bears (Week 1), Seahawks (Week 17) and Eagles (Week 6). And that doesn’t even include matchups with Denver (Week 9) and Baltimore (Week 11).

Atlanta Falcons: 5–12

Similar to Carolina, Atlanta also has concerns at quarterback, but this situation might be worse because it’s still unknown who will start. Michael Penix Jr. is recovering from a torn ACL, and when he’s cleared, he might have to compete with Tua Tagovailoa for the job.

Part of me wants to see what Tagovailoa can do with Drake London, Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts, but there were more lows than highs during his six seasons with the Dolphins. Maybe the league expects more from this team, with the Falcons getting three consecutive prime-time games from Weeks 3-5 against the Packers, Saints and Ravens.

NFC WEST

Los Angeles Rams: 13–4

Plenty was made about the Rams selecting quarterback Ty Simpson with the 13th pick, but having the best roster in football allowed them the flexibility to use their first-round pick on a player who likely won’t help in 2026.

Perhaps GM Les Snead wouldn't have taken Simpson if he didn’t land cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson in free agency. L.A. could go from having a poor secondary to one of the better ones in the league. It’s hard to see a flaw in this star-studded roster. But maybe I should put more stock into how difficult this schedule is, especially with matchups vs. the 49ers, Broncos, Eagles and Bills in the first five weeks.

Seattle Seahawks: 12–5*

I’ll admit it once more: I was very wrong about the Seahawks last season. I didn’t expect coach Mike Macdonald to be a Super Bowl–winning coach this soon, considering all the new additions and gambles that were made from Year 1 to Year 2.

Now that it’s been established that Macdonald gets fast results, what this team lost in free agency shouldn’t be an issue. Out went Kenneth Walker III, Coby Bryant and Riq Woolen. But Seattle quickly reloaded in the draft with running back Jadarian Price, safety Bud Clark and cornerback Julian Neal, all players who fit what Macdonald aims to achieve on the field.

It also helps that the Seahawks get the Cardinals and Commanders after the season opener against the Patriots, a team they crushed in the Super Bowl.

San Francisco 49ers: 8–9

The 49ers might be expecting too much from Mike Evans, the soon-to-be 33-year-old receiver who missed nine games due to injury during his final season with the Bucs. As for another concern, wide receivers Christian Kirk and Ricky Pearsall have struggled to stay healthy.

This is an aging roster that has dealt with several injuries in recent seasons. Now, San Francisco has to travel 38,100 miles in 2026 and starts the season with a 15-hour flight to Australia to face the hated Rams. Too many red flags here.

But I’ll admit, I almost changed my record prediction after seeing how the league scheduled the 49ers after the Week 1 trip to Australia. The 49ers have four home games in the next five weeks, with a short road trip to Seattle sandwiched between Miami, Arizona, Denver and Washington.

Arizona Cardinals: 3–14

The Cardinals are all about 2027, as evidenced by the QB room they assembled for the upcoming season. It’s tough seeing this team winning more than three games with a signal-caller rotation of Jacoby Brissett—if he’s not traded for asking for a pay raise—Gardner Minshew II and third-round rookie Carson Beck.

Outside of Arizona drafting running back Jeremiyah Love, there’s not much to like about this roster filled with holes. It could be a long first season for coach Mike LaFleur. The league also expects the Cardinals to be bad with zero stand-alone games in 2026.

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