Jaxson Dart Was Luckier Than You Think — and That Could Cut Both Ways in 2026

PFF data shows Dart avoided more interceptions than expected as a rookie. If he regresses to the mean, a better supporting cast will need to pick up the slack.

May 21, 2026; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart (6) speaks at a press conference during organized team activities at Quest Diagnostics Training Center. | John Jones-Imagn Images

Because he had a depleted and drop-prone pass-catching group during his rookie season, the prevailing opinion is that Jaxson Dart was snake-bitten.

Well, it turns out that the New York Giants quarterback was actually a bit luckier than most probably thought.

Pro Football Focus did a deep dive on turnover-worthy plays to determine who the luckiest and unluckiest quarterbacks in the league over the last decade were. The Giants boast two of the more fortunate campaigns, according to some eye-opening data.

New York has been one of the least successful franchises in the NFL during this time, so fans can understand how strange it is to write such a sentence.

Nevertheless, PFF's Mark Chichester found that the Giants' current quarterback and their most legendary one dodged plenty of bullets during the 2025-26 and 2018-19 campaigns, respectively.

It could have been worse for the Giants

Dart, who posted five interceptions in 12 starts last season, threw only three picks on 11 turnover-worthy plays, which amounts to 27.3 percent, per PFF. He tossed two interceptions on non-turnover-worthy plays.

His Net-Luck, which calculates turnover-worthy INTs avoided versus league average conversion over non-turnover worthy INTs incurred versus league average, came to +3.0. That ranked fifth-luckiest in the league. MVP Matthew Stafford easily secured the top spot at +6.8.

Jun 3, 2026; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart (6) participates in drills during organized team activities at Quest Diagnostics Training Center. | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Dart certainly endured more than his share of adversity, with questionable coaching and a scarcity of reliable receivers forcing him to rely on his ground game more than fans might have preferred, but he caught some breaks in the interceptions department.

And he is not the only one. Two-time Super Bowl MVP Eli Manning lays claim to the ninth-luckiest season in the last 10 years. He recorded 25 turnover-worthy plays in the 2018-19 campaign, according to Chichester. He had 11 interceptions on TWPS and threw eight more passes that resulted in dropped INTs. His Net-Luck was +5.6

Manning's last full season as a starting quarterback ended with a 5-11 record, so he probably won't gain much comfort in knowing that he was luckier than most QBs. Similarly, Jaxson Dart is not going to celebrate cracking the top five in his first year in the NFL.

Actually, there is reason to believe that the 23-year-old's circumstances will change in 2026. In cases of high or low luck, PFF concluded that the player usually regressed to the mean in the following season.

If that trend holds true for Dart, then there might be a few should-be catches that turn into picks in his second campaign. However, there are obviously several new developments that could work in his favor.

With John Harbaugh signing on to become the new head coach, and Isaiah Likely, Darnell Mooney, Malachi Fields, Calvin Austin III, Odell Beckham Jr. and JuJu Smith-Schuster joining the offense, and electric wide receiver Malik Nabers returning to action at some point, Dart will ideally be able to limit his turnover-worthy plays.

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