5 Games That Will Decide Just How Successful the Jaguars' Season Is

It is hard to imagine the Jacksonville Jaguars doing anything but earn a playoff berth this offseason, but which games could determine just how successful they are?

The Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen spoke about year one and year two as the head coach during the annual pre-draft luncheon press conference in the media room at the Miller Electric Center Thursday April 9, 2026 in Jacksonville, Fla. [Doug Engle/Florida Times-Union] | Doug Engle/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- The expectations for the Jacksonville Jaguars are sky-high in 2026, and they should be.

What the Jaguars did a year ago in the first year of the Liam Coen/James Gladstone/Tony Boselli era was nothing short of extraordinary. A year after the bottom fell out of the Doug Pederson/Trent Baalke regime, the Jaguars ran it back with much of the same cast but found results the likes of which had evaded them since their golden days.

It feels safe to say Coen's squad will one way or another be a postseason participant once again. But just how successful will the Jaguars be during the 2026 season, and which games will define that success? We take a look at five below.

Both Texans Games

Nov 9, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) leaves the field following a game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

This one goes without saying, but the two most important games on the Jaguars' entire schedule are their battles with the Houston Texans. The Jaguars split with the Texans last year, winning a close game at home early in the season before the Jaguars got off to a dominating start against Houston in the road rematch later in the season.

But somehow, the Jaguars let Davis Mills orchestrate the worst comeback loss in franchise history, and the Jaguars lost their only game of the second-half of the season. That loss set the stage for the Jaguars' frenzied close to the season, but had they lost any other game, then the Texans would have been AFC South champions. That is how thin the margins are between these two teams.

Sep 21, 2025; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen and Houston Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans shake hands after the game at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images | Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images

The Jaguars will first face the Texans in London in Week 6, one of the Jaguars' two "home games" set to be played overseas in 2026. That game will be important of course in determining what the early pecking order in the AFC South is, with the Jaguars' Week 3 win over the Texans last year giving them the breathing room they needed at the end of the season.

The second battle will be in Week 15 at Houston, a game that will surely be on the Jaguars' minds when it comes to comparing it to their late-season road-trip a year ago. Splitting the series seems like a livable scenario. Sweeping would be game-changing. Losing both would be ... tough, even if that seems like the most unlikely scenario out of the entire set.

Week 9 @ Baltimore Ravens

Dec 17, 2023; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) drops back to pass against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the first quarter at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

When it comes to sorting out the AFC hierachy, the Baltimore Ravens are an interesting potential hurdle. They have a brand-new coaching staff with fresh-faced rookies at both head coach and play-caller, but they also have one of the best athletes of an entire generation in future Hall of Famer Lamar Jackson. Their past success in the AFC likely shouldn't factor much into what their 2026 looks like, but a road primetime game in Week 9 could play a big role whenit comes to AFC seeding.

One interesting angle to watch when it comes to this matchup will be Liam Coen vs. new Ravens head coach Jesse Minter. Coen's offenses have taken Minter's defense to the woodshed in each of the last two seasons, and there is little reason to bet against Coen's unit in 2026, considering the weapons at his disposal. Coen has had the edge over Minter in the past, and that could serve as the X-Factor in Week 9.

Week 14 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Aug 9, 2025; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Travis Hunter (12) runs after a catch against the Pittsburgh Steelers during a preseason game at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Travis Register-Imagn Images | Travis Register-Imagn Images

Another late-season game against an AFC foe, this is one of the last such games the Jaguars play during the late stages of the season. While it is hard to imagine the Steelers are much of a factor in the AFC seeding race in Week 14, it is the AFC North. It is a weird division with three new head coaches, so who knows what happens.

In the event the Steelers are the team that can make it out of the AFC North relatively unscathed, then this could be a critical date for the Jaguars. It is also a big showing and moment for the last months of the current edition of EverBank Stadium as the Jaguars play their final games in the venue before it is renovated and they spend a year playing in Orlando.

This is a game the Jaguars should win on paper, but that does not change the importance of it in the many months ahead. Considering everything that should be at stake, the Jaguars should not hesitate to arrive to the moment when it calls. This game will need some help from the rest of the AFC North, but that does not exactly seem far-fetched.

Week 18 @ Indianapolis Colts

Jacksonville Jaguars cornerback Montaric Brown (30) breaks up a pass intended for Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce (14) on Sunday, Dec. 28, 2025, during a game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. | Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The AFC South has come down to Week 18 time and time again in the last few years. It did in 2022 when the Jaguars won it, in 2023 when the Jaguars lost it, and then last year they secured the AFC South title with a Week 18 blowout of the hapless Tennessee Titans. The Houston Texans are indeed that good and could make things interesting with the Jaguars entering the season finale, even in the scenario where the Jaguars are sitting at 10+ wins entering the final week.

This year, the Jaguars draw a Colts team in Week 18 that has their own aspirations of revelance, no matter how potentially misguided. Shane Steichen is 1-5 against the Jaguars in his career, and there is a chance that he could be coaching for his and Chris Ballard's jobs by this point in the season.

But chances are this game will have much less to do with the Colts, Steichen, and quarterback Daniel Jones and more to do with what the Jaguars' situation is in comparison to the Texans. The Texans are getting an even easier draw in Week 18 with a home game against the Tennessee Titans, which puts even more pressure on the Jaguars to get things done against the Colts when it matters the most. At this point, it would be a bit surprising if the season does not come down to the Week 18 result one way or another.