What the Jaguars' Chances Are to Win the AFC's No. 1 Seed

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- The Jacksonville Jaguars are right in the thick of it when it comes to the race for the AFC's No. 1 seed, especially after their big win over the Denver Broncos in Week 16.

But what exactly are the Jaguars' chances to earn the top seed? Through most of Week 16, there is a clear picture developing.

No. 1 Seed Race

According to ESPN's playoff machine, the Jaguars currently have a 13.6% chance to win the AFC's top seed, trailing only the New England Patriots (39.8%) and the Denver Broncos (36.2%). To win the AFC's top seed over the final two weeks of the season, the Jaguars need to win out and to see the Patriots and Broncos go at least 1-1 each.

The Jaguars have all the momentum in the world right now after six straight wins, and their Week 16 win against the Broncos kept their chances to win the top seed alive. The Jaguars will need some help over the next two weeks, and will have to take care of their own business, but crazier things have happened.

Dec 21, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) during the first half at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

After a four-win season a year ago, new Jaguars head coach Liam Coen is pushing all the right buttons with his first Jaguars squad. They have improved throughout the course of the season and are playing their best ball at the right time of the year. As a result, they are playing for even bigger things than just the AFC South.

“I think it's probably a shared thought process maybe in a lot of ways where, I've voiced this before, where when we got together here almost a year from now, whatever it's been with a lot of these players, they voiced some of this stuff. They voiced their desire to take the next step and that they did feel like that there was a group of guys that had a chip on their shoulder that needed an edge, that wanted to play with an edge," Coen said on Monday.

Dec 7, 2025; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen stands on the field during the first half against the Indianapolis Colts at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Travis Register-Imagn Images | Travis Register-Imagn Images

"And look, so many people here do want to prove something. There's a lot of first timers in roles. There's a lot of players that, whether they came in via free agency, the draft, whether they're here already, whatever that case is, I think it's a group of guys that are proving something. Whether it's for a contract, whether it's for wins, whatever it is, all those reasons make up our edge. And that's something that we've talked about a lot from the moment we got together is having an edge as a team and yeah, not really caring too much about the outside noise."

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