How Trevor Lawrence's Case as AFC South's Top QB Just Became Concrete

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- After two years of stagnation, it appears Trevor Lawrence has made his ground up with CJ Stroud in the race to be the AFC South's best signal-caller.

Stroud and Lawrence have had epic battles with each other since Stroud was drafted into the rivalry in 2023. But to close out 2025, all debate seems to have come to a halt between the Jaguars' and Texans' franchise passers.

Lawrence Takes the Lead

Simply put, the Jaguars have to feel better today about the trajectory of their quarterback than the Texans feel about theirs. It isn;t hyperbolic to say that we could look back on this year's playoffs in a few years and say it is the moment that defined Stroud's tenure with the Texans.

Stroud was woeful against the Pittsburgh Steelers a week previously, fumbling five times and throwing an interception while losing two of said fumbles. The Texans' elite defense scored two touchdowns vs. the Steelers, though, and the Texans rolled by them with ease. This would not be the case with his four-interception half against the New England Patriots, however.

C.J. Stroud is the first player with 5+ INT and 5+ fumbles in a single postseason. https://t.co/aaUDYz8NaI
— NFL Researcher (@NFL_Researcher) January 18, 2026

Stroud's response to a turnover-filled game that had to be bailed out by their defense was to have an even bigger flop against the Patriots. Houston still played New England close despite the turnovers due to another top-notch defensive effort, but they ran out of gas as Stroud and the Texans' offense ran out of answers.

It would not have been fair for most to say "imagine if Trevor Lawrence did that" during Stroud's meltdown, because we saw Lawrence do it in 2022 against the Chargers. The difference is that Lawrence caught fire the second half and won the game, while Stroud and the offense were so rough that DeMeco Ryans was surrender-punting by the end of the game.

demeco ryan — Jan 18, 2026; Foxborough, MA, USA; Houston Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans looks on in the second quarter against the New England Patriots in an AFC Divisional Round game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

Lawrence didn't play his best game vs. the Buffalo Bills in the Jaguars' Wild Card start, but he certainly didn't play as poorly as Stroud. Of the 20 quarterback performances in the playoffs this year, Lawrence's ranked No. 10. Stroud's ranked No. 14 and No. 18. Lawrence had a much better 2025 than Stroud, and was playing significantly better football at the end of the season than his fellow AFC South quarterback.

Stroud is unlikely to play elsewhere anytime soon. He may not get a new deal this offseason, but the team could pick up his fifth-year option and have him under contract for two more seasons. But for now, Lawrence is entering the offseason as the AFC South's best quarterback. If anything, Stroud may need to watch out for Cam Ward.

cj strou — Jan 18, 2026; Foxborough, MA, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) calls for a time out in the fourth quarter against the New England Patriots in an AFC Divisional Round game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images | Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

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