Analyzing What Jets' David Bailey Must Do to Win Defensive Rookie of the Year

Expectations couldn't be higher for second overall pick David Bailey. The All-American out of Texas Tech was the best pass rusher in college last season. Now, he's hoping to bring that production to the NFL and the New York Jets.

Along the way, the rookie has dominated both in practice and in preseason games to the point that many are wondering whether the defensive rookie of the year award is considered a "lock."

However, other star-studded rookies may have something to say about that, though.

Whether it's their cross-town rival New York Giants' draft selection of Arvell Reese, Tampa Bay Buccaneers' first-round pick Rueben Bain Jr., or many other quality defensive rookies, Bailey will have his work cut out for him this year if he wants to come away with any hardware.

And in a rookie of the year race, production is the only thing that will matter.

Making sense of Bailey's Defensive Rookie of the Year chances

Bailey's lightning-quick first step has made him a welcome addition to a Jets defense that was among the league's worst in both sacks (26) and pressures (87) last year. Right away, Bailey's expectation should be to get to the quarterback in droves and alter throws with his rush.

Being able to defend the run better than he did in college will be an added bonus.

As for these Rookie of the Year odds, Vegas Insider has Bailey with the second-best on several betting sites, including bet365 (+500) and Caesars (+500). Bain, Reese, and Washington Commanders linebacker Sonny Styles are also in the mix for the award.

Production will mean everything to an award like this. While not many second overall picks have recorded 10 or more sacks in their first season, that could be the deciding factor in who wins the award this year.

Remember, defensive player of the year Myles Garrett, the new record-holder for sacks in a single season, recorded just seven in his first year with the Cleveland Browns. He did not win Rookie of the Year, instead losing out to Marshon Lattimore of New Orleans.

Von Miller, a former second overall pick and Super Bowl MVP, recorded 11.5 in his first season and won the award. A clear distinction, even with fellow rookie Aldon Smith recording more sacks (14) than Miller.

The goal ahead for Bailey is simple.

If the Jets phenom is going to come away with the Defensive Rookie of the Year award, he'll need to notch double-digit sacks. With a collection of fellow rookie defensive stars, the impact Bailey is expected to bring to Gang Green will be immensely different than that of Reese and Bain to their own team. Bain has an All-Pro nose tackle in Vita Vea, helping control the line of scrimmage. Reese has Pro Bowler Brian Burns out on the edge.

Bailey doesn't have an All-Pro to play with along the line. That means every sack and every pressure will be quantified differently.

And in this age of production mattering more than ever, it could be the difference when it comes to award season.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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