Numbers Show New York Jets Made Wrong Decision Firing Robert Saleh

Nothing has gone right for the New York Jets during the 2024 season, as their victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday afternoon improved their record to only 4-10 on the season.

Even the most pessimistic of people couldn’t have envisioned things going this poorly, as there hasn’t been much to get excited about. Because of their struggles, the team will be looking for a new head coach and general manager in the offseason.

After a Week 5 loss to the Minnesota Vikings in London, Robert Saleh was relieved of his duties as head coach. He was replaced by defensive coordinator Jeff Ublrich on an interim basis.

Based on how things have gone since that point, it is hard to envision Ulbrich being seriously considered for the position on a full-time basis.

Rich Cimini of ESPN shared some eye-popping stats, separating them from when Saleh was running the show and since he has been fired.

With him as head coach, the Jets defense, which was considered championship-caliber by a lot of people coming into the season, was playing at a high level. They ranked No. 6 in defensive efficiency and No. 5 in DefEPA through the first five weeks of the season.

From Week 6 on, New York has been the worst defensive team in the NFL. They have plummeted to No. 31 in defensive efficiency and No. 32 in DefEPA.

Opponents are moving the ball with ease against their defense, as they are struggling to get timely stops or force takeaways. The pass rush has been inconsistent, but their most glaring need has been tackling. Missed tackles have been racked up at an alarming pace, creating opportunities for the opposing offense.

Where the team has improved has been on the offensive side of the ball.

Under Saleh, the team had offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett calling plays. Saleh was hoping to reduce Hackett's role in the offense, to the point where he was poised to make a play-calling change right before he was fired.

Through Week 5, with Hackett calling plays, the Jets ranked 25th in offensive efficiency and 23rd in OffEPA. When Saleh was fired, Hackett ceded play-calling duties to quarterbacks coach and offensive passing game coordinator Todd Downing.

Since the former Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator has been calling the plays, New York has improved to 12th in offensive efficiency and 14th in OffEPA.

How the #Jets have fared under Saleh (Wks 1-5) vs Ulbrich (Wks 6-15), based on ESPN rankings/analytics:

Def Eff DefEPA
Wks 1-5 6th 5th
Wks 6-15 31st 32nd

Off Eff OffEPA
Wks…
— Rich Cimini (@RichCimini) December 18, 2024

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ performance has steadied over the last week weeks, working well with his dynamic duo of Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson at wide receiver. That has certainly played a part in the turn around, along with more consistent performance in the trenches by the offensive line.

How different would things have been if the Jets made a change with Hackett and retained Saleh? It is anyone’s guess, as there have been a lot of issues on the field beyond the coaching staff.

But, it is easy for fans to imagine that the improved offensive production combined with the defensive performance from the first five weeks of the season would have the team in a much different position in the standings than they currently are.