2020 AFC Power Rankings
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Last week, I unveiled my NFC power rankings for 2020.
This week, it’s on to the AFC.
It’s quite possible that the AFC has the two best teams in the entire NFL at this time.
A lot can change over the course of the season, but there are some real heavy-hitters with real star power in this conference.
Now, wins aren’t always indicative of who the best team is in the league.
Due to strength of schedule, untimely injuries, bad luck and other factors, focusing solely on the win column can be deceptive.
Look at it this way, these power rankings are essentially how I would order the AFC teams that I would least like the Detroit Lions to play if they were in a must-win scenario.
1.) Baltimore Ravens
- 2019 record: 14-2
- Offensive DVOA: 1st (Pass: 1st/Run: 1st)
- Defensive DVOA: 4th (Pass: 4th/Run: 20th)
As usual, a dynamic run game, coupled with a great defense, is a recipe for success. On top of that, the Ravens' passing attack is incredibly efficient as well -- partially due to the threat they have on the ground. They dominated in 2019, and unfortunately, fizzled out in the playoffs. I have a feeling that won’t be the case in 2020. If Lamar Jackson continues to get better, look out.
2.) Kansas City Chiefs:
- 2019 record: 12-4
- Offensive DVOA: 3rd (Pass: 2nd/Run: 14th)
- Defensive DVOA: 14th (Pass: 6th/Run: 29th)
A large majority of the Chiefs' roster returns from their Super Bowl-winning squad last season. As long as Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are together, their offense will be near the top in the league. Their defense is not a powerhouse, but they still have some talented pieces throughout. Obviously, they have the offensive aptitude to overcome most defensive deficiencies.
3.) New England Patriots
- 2019 record: 12-4
- Offensive DVOA: 11th (Pass: 14th/Run: 15th)
- Defensive DVOA: 1st (Pass: 1st/Run: 6th)
Maybe this is too high for the Patriots without quarterback Tom Brady and plenty of others leaving in free agency or opting out due to COVID-19. However, it’s so difficult to ever count out a Bill Belichick-led team. In saying that, I don’t believe the Patriots will be able to replicate their defensive success in 2019. On offense, a lot will depend on which version of quarterback Cam Newton shows up. All in all, they have the coaching to overcome flaws and to keep them competitive with the league’s best.
4.) Buffalo Bills
- 2019 record: 10-6
- Offensive DVOA: 21st (Pass: 23rd/Run: 17th)
- Defensive DVOA: 6th (Pass: 5th/Run: 18th)
The Bills are a tough read. To the casual NFL fan, they don’t exactly have a bunch of superstars with name recognition. Yet, they do have plenty of real good players. Adding Stefon Diggs at wide receiver adds an interesting dynamic to their offense as well -- an element they haven’t had in some time. If Josh Allen can harness that monster arm of his, this team could be a lot better. Unfortunately, Allen has never shown at any level that he can consistently be accurate. On the other side of the ball, their defense is more than fine, and will always keep them in games.
5.) Tennessee Titans
- 2019 record: 9-7
- Offensive DVOA: 6th (Pass: 6th/Run: 5th)
- Defensive DVOA: 16th (Pass: 21st/Run: 9th)
Another team with a great rushing attack and pretty solid defense. However, the Titans were late-bloomers last season. Was that end-of-the-season run a fluke or are they for real? Beating both the Ravens and Patriots in the playoffs is unbelievably impressive. The quarterback swap of Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill sure paid off, and they rewarded Tannehill with a big new extension. I’m not completely sold on the Titans being contenders just yet. But, if they can continue where they left off in 2019, they will rack up far more than nine wins.
George Walker IV, Tennessean.com
6.) Pittsburgh Steelers
- 2019 record: 8-8
- Offensive DVOA: 32nd (Pass: 30th/Run: 30th)
- Defensive DVOA: 3rd (Pass: 3rd/Run: 3rd)
The big question mark for the Steelers will be how quarterback Ben Roethlisberger performs at 38 years old. Father Time looked to be catching up with him in 2018, and additionally, he sustained a season-ending elbow injury in 2019. However, there are some nice weapons for him to work with on offense. With their D looking like a traditional Steelers’ defense we have been accustomed to over the years, Big Ben would only need to be a game-manager in order for Pittsburgh to be in playoff contention. If Roethlisberger can find his old form, the Steelers will be a very formidable team.
7.) Houston Texans
- 2019 record: 10-6
- Offensive DVOA: 16th (Pass: 16th/Run: 11th)
- Defensive DVOA: 26th (Pass: 26th/Run: 22nd)
Losing wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is a pretty big blow. However, I’m a subscriber to the theory that wide receivers are often overvalued in the grand scheme of things. Quarterback Deshaun Watson should be just fine with the Texans' current cast of wideouts. It would be great if new running back David Johnson could help offset the Hopkins' loss, but Johnson has looked washed up for some time now. On defense, J.J. Watt just really needs to stay healthy.
8.) Indianapolis Colts
- 2019 record: 7-9
- Offensive DVOA: 19th (Pass: 24th/Run: 7th)
- Defensive DVOA: 17th (Pass: 19th/Run: 19th)
I don’t believe Philip Rivers is going to be much of a difference maker at this point in his career. Perhaps the best thing Rivers has going for him is the help of a strong offensive line and run game. The Colts added another notable player well past his prime in cornerback Xavier Rhodes, too. The defense should be improved with DeForest Buckner, but it's still probably middle of the road. Really, the Colts just seem like a very average team.
9.) Denver Broncos
- 2019 record: 7-9
- Offensive DVOA: 26th (Pass: 27th/Run: 19th)
- Defensive DVOA: 13th (Pass: 14th/Run: 16th)
There is a lot of exciting up-and-coming talent on the Broncos. As is the case usually with a younger team, on paper, they look great. But, they still need a little more time to develop. Quarterback Drew Lock demonstrated flashes that should give the Broncos some hope for the future. His development, along with his rapport with the team's rookie receivers, will be the key to the offense. The defense underwhelmed a bit last season after high expectations.
10.) Cleveland Browns
- 2019 record: 6-10
- Offensive DVOA: 20th (Pass: 21st/Run: 8th)
- Defensive DVOA: 22nd (Pass: 17th/Run: 30th)
Man, did the Browns disappoint in 2019. Quarterback Baker Mayfield just never seemed to jell with his surrounding cast. The talent is still there for them to be dangerous. Perhaps the biggest flaw of a season ago were their offensive tackles, and they definitely addressed that issue this offseason. Outside of the linebacker position, their defense looks pretty good as well. Now that expectations aren’t as high, I think the Browns have a good chance to overachieve. I just need to see it happen first before ranking them higher.
David Kohl, USA TODAY Sports
11.) Las Vegas Raiders
- 2019 record: 7-9
- Offensive DVOA: 9th (Pass: 7th/Run: 21st)
- Defensive DVOA: 31st (Pass: 30th/Run: 21st)
The Raiders are a bit of an enigma to me. They made some additions on defense, but I’m just not ready to buy in to them being able to dramatically turn it around. Quarterback Derek Carr is about as average as they come. And even with drafting the speedster Henry Ruggs in the first round, I’m not convinced Ruggs will be utilized to the best of his abilities. I think the best bet will be an offense that revolves around the running game.
12.) Los Angeles Chargers
- 2019 record: 5-11
- Offensive DVOA: 12th (Pass: 9th/Run: 24th)
- Defensive DVOA: 21st (Pass: 20th/Run: 25th)
The Chargers' defense should be better than a season ago with a few new additions and the return of safety Derwin James. Even though Philip Rivers was a shell of himself last season, Tyrod Taylor and rookie Justin Herbert still give me pause. As good as running back Austin Ekeler is in his role, he isn’t good enough by himself to will a rushing attack into existence. The offense is going to struggle, and will need to rely on the defense turning it around -- which is very possible.
13.) Miami Dolphins
- 2019 record: 5-11
- Offensive DVOA: 27th (Pass: 25th/Run: 32nd)
- Defensive DVOA: 32nd (Pass: 32nd/Run: 27th)
You could argue that there are real reasons for optimism regarding the Dolphins. They showed some promise last season, despite being the team everyone thought was actively tanking. And there might not be one team with more moves made than the Dolphins. In an atypical offseason with so many new players, it’s going to be difficult to get everyone caught up to speed. Despite drafting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, his hip injury could delay his return to the field, and I wouldn’t rush him behind their porous offensive line.
14.) New York Jets
- 2019 record: 7-9
- Offensive DVOA: 31st (Pass: 32nd/Run: 31st)
- Defensive DVOA: 10th (Pass: 18th/Run: 2nd)
The Jets finished 6-2 after a lousy start to the 2019 season. They still have a long ways to go, though -- especially on offense. Trading away two of their best defensive players in the span of a year doesn’t help, either. Jamal Adams is one of the best strong safeties in the league, and they decided to move on from him. Another former first-round pick Leonard Williams may not have lived up to his draft hype, but was a nice player. The defense was the strength of their team a season ago, and it’s unlikely they will be better in 2020 after the key departures.
15.) Cincinnati Bengals
- 2019 record: 2-14
- Offensive DVOA: 29th (Pass: 28th/Run: 23rd)
- Defensive DVOA: 30th (Pass: 28th/Run: 28th)
There was a reason the Bengals had the top pick in this year’s draft. First overall pick Joe Burrow and the return of wide receiver A.J. Green gives the Bengals some fanfare. However, their poor offensive line will make life difficult -- despite having a decent group of skill players. Anytime an offense can't sustain drives, it creates more pressure on the defense. The D is not at the point that it will be able to overcome adversity.
16.) Jacksonville Jaguars
- 2019 record: 6-10
- Offensive DVOA: 24th (Pass: 22nd/Run: 28th)
- Defensive DVOA: 29th (Pass: 22nd/Run: 31st)
The Jaguars appear to be this year’s version of the Dolphins. There are plenty of subpar position groups on the roster, and they appear to be totally content with Gardner Minshew II at quarterback. We’ll see how that works out. If it doesn’t, the Jaguars are squarely in line to get one of the top draft picks in the quarterback-heavy 2021 draft. The stout defense of a few seasons ago has fallen off the map, and outside of some young pass rushers, there isn’t much to give opponents any fear.
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