NFC North Roundtable: Lions' Impact Player, Key to Beat Bears

The NFC North division race is heating up.

For the first time since Week 2, the Detroit Lions suffered a defeat. It came at the hands of the Buffalo Bills, and a Minnesota Vikings win over the Bears on Monday created a tie atop the division with three games to play.

Detroit still holds the head-to-head tiebreaker, but the two teams will meet again in Week 18 in a game that could carry massive weight. With one other team in the NFC having an equal record, the winner of the NFC North could wind up being the team that also claims the No. 1 seed and a first round bye.

Here's a look at where each NFC North team stands heading into Week 16, with input from publishers across the division.

Detroit Lions

Week 16: Lions at Bears (1 p.m. Sunday, Soldier Field)

Rankings: Lions, Vikings, Packers, Bears

Impact Player to Watch: DE Za’Darius Smith. The Detroit Lions’ defense lost multiple key players to injury in last week’s loss to Buffalo, including defensive tackle Alim McNeill and cornerback Carlton Davis. With a secondary that will be missing its top cornerback, the pass rush will face more responsibility to put heat on Caleb Williams to make life easier for Terrion Arnold and others. Detroit would benefit greatly if Smith and the rest of the defensive line could replicate their performance from the first time against Chicago.

Key to Victory: The Lions need a fast start. They put themselves in an early 14-0 hole against the Bills as the offense punted on its first two drives. Though the Lions were able to make the game a shootout, their slow start put them at a deficit that they couldn’t overcome. As a result, a faster start will allow them to take the pressure off a battered defense. — John Maakaron, Lions OnSI.

Minnesota Vikings

Week 16: Vikings at Seahawks (4:05 p.m. Sunday, Lumen Field)

Rankings: Vikings, Lions, Packers, Bears

Impact player to watch this week: I could say Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Blake Cashman, Stephon Gilmore, Jonathan Greenard or a number of other impact Vikings stars, but I got a feeling the biggest impact player this week will be rookie kicker Will "The Thrill" Reichard. The analytics indicate this will be a close game and it could lead to Reichard needing to make a kick in a pressure moment for the first time in his NFL career. Is he up to the task of doing the job when it matters most and helping the Vikings overcome a kicker curse?

Key to victory: Handling crowd noise at Lumen Field is typically a big deal, but the Seahawks are 3-5 at home this season and the "12th Man" in Seattle doesn't appear to be what it used to be. It's unusually quiet to the point that DK Metcalf this week basically called out Seahawks fans, saying he wishes "as many 12s didn't sell as many tickets as they did." If the Vikings can build an early lead, Seahawks fans might not have the energy to rally the players. — Joe Nelson, Vikings OnSI.

Green Bay Packers

Week 16: Packers vs Saints (8:15 p.m. Monday, Lambeau Field)

Rankings: Vikings, Lions, Packers, Bears

Impact player to watch this week: Josh Jacobs. Jacobs has been the heartbeat of Green Bay’s offense all season. In a dominating win at Seattle on Sunday, the Packers started the game with a 10-play touchdown drive. Jacobs got the ball on the first eight plays and scored the touchdown on the 10th. Talk about setting the tone. Jacobs is third in the NFL in rushing while the Saints are 30th with 4.94 yards allowed per carry. That unit played well in last week’s near-upset of the Commanders, but this should still be a matchup that tips heavily in Green Bay’s direction.

Key to victory: Pressuring the quarterback. Last week, the Packers knocked out Geno Smith in the third quarter and dominated his backup, Sam Howell. Howell led the NFL in passing attempts last season, so it’s not as if the Packers feasted on some no-name rookie. In 12 under-pressure dropbacks, Howell was 2-of-7 passing for 17 yards. With 21 yards on four sacks, the Seahawks averaged minus-0.24 yards when Howell was under duress. With Derek Carr sidelined by a broken hand, rookie Spencer Rattler will make his fourth start. His under-pressure passer rating this season, according to PFF, is 51.7. — Bill Huber, Packers OnSI.

Chicago Bears

Week 16: Bears vs Lions (1 p.m. Sunday, Soldier Field)

Rankings: Lions, Vikings, Packers, Bears

Impact player to watch: RB D'Andre Swift. Last week Swift decided to lower his shoulder and run through some tackles, especially in the second half of the game. The Bears haven't been able to score in the first half of the last three games and the reason is their anemic running attack and poor pass blocking. Swift's 79 yards rushing last week showed he can get the job done if he gets blocks. Because of the Lions' depleted state of health on defense, look for the Bears to hit them with Swift so they can buy Caleb Williams time to throw.

Key to victory: Amping up the pass rush on Jared Goff rates No. 1. He's already well known as a QB who doesn't usually play well in the cold. His passer rating for 12 career games with temperatures in the 30s, based on NFL statistics, is 75.53. This almost 20 points lower than his career passer rating. The Bears must blitz and put on pressure like they did against Minnesota before that game got out of hand. They need to be prepared to gamble on both sides of the ball because they're incapable of stopping Detroit's offense over an extended period like at Soldier Field in last year's 28-13 win. — Gene Chamberlain, Bears OnSI.