Four Keys to Victory for Packers vs. Panthers in Game They Can’t Afford to Lose

Here are two reasons why the Green Bay Packers will beat the Carolina Panthers and two reasons why they could lose.

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs fights for yards during last year's game against Carolina. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers need a win. Badly. They are 4-3 entering Thursday night’s game against the Carolina Panthers and are clinging to the final spot in the playoff field.

With their next three games being at the Patriots, who won the AFC last year, at home against the Vikings, who are undefeated this year, and the Rams, who won the Super Bowl last year and have a loaded roster despite their struggles, this feels like a game the Packers can’t afford to lose.

Will they deliver the type of complete performance that escaped them on Sunday at the Lions? In an abridged version of our usual pair of stories, here are two reasons why the Packers will win and two reasons why they will lose.

Reason to Win, No. 1: Jordan Love Big Game

Jordan Love is capable of destroying any defense in the league. With Christian Watson and Matthew Golden (assuming he’s healthy and a full contributor) and Tucker Kraft, he’s got the weapons to win games.

He’ll get plenty of opportunities against the Panthers. Their top pass rusher, Jaelan Phillips, will be inactive. While with the Eagles last season, Phillips had eight pressures in an upset victory at Lambeau Field.

Meanwhile, starting cornerbacks Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson are on injured reserve. They are one of the better duos in the league. In three games apiece, according to Pro Football Focus, Jackson allowed one catch in 77 coverage snaps and Horn five catches in 105 coverage snaps. That’s a combined six catches in 182 snaps, or about one catch for every 30.3 snaps. Their replacements, Akayleb Evans and rookie Will Lee III, have combined to allow one catch for every 9.1 snaps.

Reason to Win, No. 2: Weaknesses Becoming Strengths

It’s hard to imagine these being areas the Packers can lean on, but they should be.

One: The Packers have the worst rushing attack in the NFL with 59.9 rushing yards per game and 2.91 yards per carry. In fact, it continues to be on pace to be the worst in league history. Carolina, on the other hand, has the worst rushing defense in the NFL with 153.2 rushing yards allowed per game and 5.16 yards per carry.

Will this – finally – be the week the Packers get something going on the ground? Josh Jacobs couldn’t get the Packers past a feeble 60 yards against Detroit but there were at least some impressive runs.

Because of Jacobs, the Panthers are wary, no matter what the numbers say.

“The things that you do get better when you get your great players back,” Panthers coach Dave Canales told reporters this week. “Josh Jacobs is a fantastic runner, showed his ability out of the backfield on the perimeter. That's already an explosive offense with a lot of speed outside, so you factor all those things in knowing that it's probably going to still be the similar styles of runs and things they're going to be doing.

“Everybody's got to run to the ball because he will, at times, make that first person miss. Making sure that we show up together is critical.”

Two: Green Bay’s offense ranks 28th on third down, 30th in the red zone and 28th in goal-to-go situations. Carolina’s defense ranks 25th on third down, 28th in the red zone and 29th in goal-to-go. So, will this finally be the week the Packers get into the red zone and score touchdowns? Or will they fail, like they did at Detroit?

“Obviously, there have been some plays that we have to make,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. “There’s been some drops and things like that. So, we’ve just got to make those plays when they come.

“Also, we’ve got to do a better job of running the ball down there. I think when we’re playing our best in the red zone, we’re doing a nice job running the ball. We definitely need to be better there. And just get Josh Jacobs involved as much as possible. He’s been huge for us the last couple of years down there, been one of the best in the NFL in the red zone. Just keep getting him involved and making plays.”

Reason to Lose, No. 1: Panthers Can Score … A Lot

Carolina Panthers wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan is unable to catch a touchdown pass against Nte Hobbs and the Packers last year. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Packers lost on a Thursday night to Atlanta earlier in the season. The Panthers don’t have the same high-powered weapons as the Falcons, but it’s still a high-quality unit. In fact, the Panthers enter the game ranked sixth in scoring, fifth in total offense and second in passing offense.

It’s a talented group, led by quarterback Bryce Young. The Panthers made him the first pick of the 2023 draft. The Packers barely won at Carolina in 2023 and the Panthers scored an upset last year at Lambeau.

Young, who is probably better than Atlanta’s Michael Penix, is only 25th in completion percentage but is second in air yards per completion and 11th in passing yards per attempt. He’s 10th in passing yards even while playing one fewer game than most players.

Tetairoa McMillan, who is Carolina’s equivalent of Drake London, ranks in the top 15 in the league with 36 receptions for 511 yards. Again, he’s played one fewer game than most players.

Led by that dynamic duo, the Panthers have 23 completions of 20-plus yards. They are sixth with a 20-yard completion rate of 9.9 percent.

“He can make all the throws,” defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon said. “What really pops off the tape to me about him is his toughness. For not being a huge guy, he takes shots and gets up and plays the game the right way I think. But it’s a big-time challenge. They’re a good offense. They throw the ball over your head (and) they can still run it.”

Chuba Hubbard is one of the more underrated running backs in the NFL. He’s 13th with 459 rushing yards and 10th with a 4.78-yard average.

Combined, they can put up enough points to spring an upset against a Packers team that has gone past 20 points in only three of seven games.

Reason to Lose, No. 2: Trey Smack’s Slump Continues

Until they get past the drops, penalties and so on, the Packers will leave themselves little margin for error. That was evident in the 20-17 loss to Detroit, when Trey Smack missed chip-shot field goal attempts of 26 and 35 yards.

On a short week, Smack did not kick at practice this week. So, he’ll have to rely on big-time kicks to kick himself out of a big-time funk.

Is he mentally tough enough to do it? Or will human nature kick in and create some self-doubt that shows up in flawed fundamentals?

“We’re better now,” special teams coordinator Cam Achord said. “I think for anybody, human nature, myself included, when you don’t go out and execute the way you want, you’re going to be a little bit frustrated, depressed, or like you let people down.

“But as it goes on, you get back to it, and you can move forward. We’re good now. We’re in a good spot, and it goes back to having all the confidence in him and knowing that he is a confident person. So, right now we’re in a good headspace. I really do. I think we’re in a good headspace leading into tomorrow night. And I’m excited to see him kick.”

The Bears went all-in on Jeffery Simmons today. Almost exactly 14 months ago, the Packers went all-in on Micah Parsons.

The Bears obviously see a Super Bowl window. The Packers with Parsons should see the same. ⬇️https://t.co/9XLKZ2UEAe

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) October 29, 2026

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