Packers vs. Panthers Matchups: Who’s Got Advantage?

The Green Bay Packers have won three in a row. With the calendar set to turn to November, that means crisp air and games that really start to matter.

Every game matters for the Packers now, who sit atop the NFC playoff picture but have a slim lead over the Detroit Lions for the lead in the NFC North. As was the case last year, it looks like two of the top teams in the conference reside in the NFC North, but one will be rewarded with a date on wild-card weekend.

One way for the Packers to ensure they do not end up playing an extra game and, by extension, get to host playoff games at Lambeau Field, is to take care of business against an inferior opponent.

The Panthers are not a pushover like they were the last time these teams met. They finished with the worst record in football in 2023. They’re a spry 4-4 now, but coming off their worst loss of the season, a 40-9 drubbing at the hands of the Buffalo Bills.

The Packers, meanwhile, are likely feeling good about themselves after three straight victories coming out of the bye. This could be classified as a classic trap game with a showdown against the Philadelphia Eagles looming next week.

On paper, however, this looks like a favorable draw for the Packers. Here’s our breakdown of the matchups.

Panthers Pass Offense vs. Packers Pass Defense

Carolina has questions at quarterback. The Packers have had some good fortune in facing backup quarterbacks, or quarterbacks who were not fully settled into their current situation.

The question this week is whether they’ll be facing Bryce Young or Andy Dalton.

Dalton played last week with Young on the shelf due to an ankle injury and struggled immensely. He was sacked seven times as Buffalo’s pass rush put the clamps on any aerial attack the Panthers could have tried to put together.

When the Panthers are able to get the ball in the air, there is one man who is their top target above everyone else. Rookie first-round pick Tetairoa McMillan is Carolina’s leading receiver with 512 yards. Xavier Legette is a distant second with 159 yards.

McMillan was someone who had caught the Packers’ eye during the predraft process, but he was long gone by the time they were on the clock.

Regardless of who is under center, the one-dimensional passing attack has not worked for the Panthers. They are 29th in the NFL, ahead of only the Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans and New York Jets. Those are two of the worst quarterback situations in football, and a rookie in Tennessee’s Cam Ward.

Green Bay’s pass defense struggled in the first half against the Steelers’ Aaron Rodgers, with him repeatedly picking on Keisean Nixon. Nixon has had some bright spots this season, but Sunday was not his night. He was beaten for a touchdown by D.K. Metcalf, flagged for both holding and pass interference, and gave up a 45-yard completion to Roman Wilson.

On the other side, Nate Hobbs was benched in favor of Carrington Valentine. Valentine had a pass breakup in the end zone against Metcalf, and acquitted himself very well. He should be a starter.

The question is who will join him on the field. The answer is likely Nixon getting another chance, but Matt LaFleur did point out that it was a “competitive situation” at cornerback.

“We still have a ton of confidence in Hobbs. So, all of those guys, Keisean, they’re all going to be competing for playing time,” LaFleur said on Monday.

The key for Green Bay’s defense, however, is its front, and it got a big boost last week with the return of Devonte Wyatt. Rashan Gary had two sacks and Micah Parsons had one. Gary leads the team with 7.5 sacks and looks poised to have his first 10-sack season. Parsons has 6.5. They’re both in the top 10 in the league.

That dynamic duo is likely licking its chops to face off against a Carolina offense that allowed seven sacks last week.

Advantage: Packers

Panthers Rush Offense vs. Packers Rush Defense

Carolina may not be able to throw the ball with much success, but it can certainly run it.

Rico Dowdle, a free-agent pickup from Dallas, has emerged as the leading man in Carolina’s backfield. Dowdle had back-to-back games of 206 rushing yards against Miami and 183 against Dallas, and is averaging 5.7 yards per carry. He looked to be on his way to having another big game against the Bills before the score got out of hand.

He’s joined in the backfield by Chuba Hubbard, who has 282 yards in six games this season after rushing for almost 1,200 yards last year. Overall, Carolina has a top-five rushing offense with 136.9 yards per game.

Carolina Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard (30) scores a touchdown against the Packers in 2023. | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Green Bay’s run defense has remained excellent but has shown some cracks against below-average run games the last two weeks. Pittsburgh found some success running behind heavy formations with an extra offensive linemen in a similar vein to the way the Packers used to use Kevin Barry in the Mike Sherman era.

They couldn’t continue doing that due to an injury to left guard Isaac Seumalo, but there’s little doubt Carolina saw those run reps from the Steelers.

The Packers remain third in the NFL, giving up a stingy 78.9 rushing yards per game. They’ll need to slow Carolina’s run game down. If they can, they should be able to tee off against its hapless passing attack.

Advantage: Push

Panthers Pass Defense vs. Packers Pass Offense

Green Bay’s passing offense is coming off its best game of the season. Jordan Love has been excellent all year outside of a game in Cleveland, where nobody on offense played well. The box-score numbers at times may not have been there to match how well he played, but they certainly did under the lights on Sunday Night Football.

Love threw for 360 yards and tied a franchise record with 20 consecutive completions.

His primary target was Tucker Kraft, who lit up National Tight Ends Day with seven receptions for 143 yards and two touchdowns.

Kraft was the leading man, but he was not alone. The return of Christian Watson paid immediate dividends with him catching four passes for 84 yards, including a 33-yard completion on what may have been Love’s best throw of the night.

Carolina’s pass defense is nothing to sneeze at.

It doesn’t put a ton of pressure on quarterbacks, with defensive end Derrick Brown leading the team with three sacks and the Panthers ranking 26th in sack percentage, but it can be stingy in coverage. Former first-round pick Jaycee Horn leads the team with three interceptions as the Panthers rank 10th against the pass.

This matchup is tough for Green Bay, but Carolina’s lack of pressure, and Love’s excellence when he’s been kept clean by his offensive line, gives them the nod.

Advantage: Packers

Panthers Rush Defense vs. Packers Rush Offense

Green Bay’s run game couldn’t get anything going until late against the Steelers. Most of that came from reserve running back Emanuel Wilson, who gained 61 yards on 11 carries and helped the Packers salt the game away in the fourth quarter.

Green Bay Packers running back Emanuel Wilson (23) runs the ball against Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker Patrick Queen. | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Josh Jacobs was stuffed almost immediately on all his 13 carries, which totaled just 33 yards. Jacobs is battling an injury and looked like he may have been a step slower on Sunday night. Perhaps another week removed will have him looking fresh against a Carolina defense that has been mediocre against the run.

The Panthers are 16th with 111.6 rushing yards allowed per game and 24th with 4.60 yards allowed per carry. Last week, Buffalo’s James Cook carried 19 times for 216 yards and two touchdowns.

Of course, Pittsburgh was ranked in the middle of the pack last week against the run, but Green Bay couldn’t find any traction for most of the night. If Jacobs is still nursing an injury, we could see more of Wilson, or creative run schemes to try and get the ball to their playmakers in space as an extension of the run game.

Either way, it’s tough to trust Green Bay on the ground outside of the red zone, where Jacobs remains a touchdown machine.

Advantage: Panthers

Special Teams

Green Bay’s special teams were at full strength against the Steelers, with kicker Brandon McManus returning from the inactive list. He was short from 57 yards and missed a 44-yarder to close the first half, as well.

Matt LaFleur said that would be something they’d evaluate this week, and Lucas Havrisik remains on the roster.

Green Bay’s adventures trying to return punts continued. Pittsburgh’s first punt saw Keisean Nixon back deep as opposed to Matthew Golden or Romeo Doubs. It nearly ended in disaster as Nixon muffed the punt, but it was recovered by Zayne Anderson.

Doubs would take those duties for the rest of the night and appears to be Green Bay’s default answer for the time being.

The issues on special teams don’t appear to be trending toward finding a solution anytime soon, and now they are likely down one of their best players.

Nick Niemann injured his pectoral muscle on Sunday, and the Packers are concerned it will be a long-term injury. He ranks fourth in the NFL in special-teams tackles. If he’s down, they could recall Kristian Welch from the practice squad.

Carolina’s special teams is led by kicker Ryan Fitzgerald, who has made a 57-yard field goal but has missed two field goals and two extra points. Sam Martin has the third-worst net-punt average.

Its return game is diverse and has potential to be dynamic. Trevor Etienne seems to have entrenched himself as the primary returner in both phases. He’s averaged 23.4 yards per kickoff return (long of 45) and 6.6 yards per punt return (long of 15).

In the past, we’ve given the edge to Green Bay because of its kicker, but with the coverage teams and return situation in flux, it’s hard to give the Packers the nod this week.