Stars, Busts Highlight Packers’ Four-Year Draft Grade

Green Bay Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst has been on a bit of a roll in the draft. He’ll need to keep it going this year but with fewer resources.

Green Bay’s last four drafts rank sixth in the league and were given a B grade by StickToTheModel.com, which measured the hits, stars and busts compared to the rest of the league.

From 2022 through 2025, Gutekunst’s hit rate was 71 percent, which is 19 percent better than the league average.

“This feature is essentially a draft report card for all NFL GMs,” the brains behind the rankings explained. “The rankings are basically derived by the relative value added across all their picks. On top of that, there is tracking on what percentage of picks were stars vs. busts (and a hit means that there was relative value added).

“What was most interesting was hearing about how many Packers fans were displeased with your GMs performance (or maybe just the loudest). Looking further, there is some validity based on a middle-of-the-pack ranking on first-round hit rate.”

Separately, Approximate Value provided similar results.

Approximate Value Over Expectation for draft picks since 2022:

1. Rams (+125.2)
2. Buccaneers (+92.4)
3. Bills (+79.6)
4. Packers (+76.5)
5. Seahawks (+64.7)
...
28. Titans (-26.7)
29. Browns (-35.1)
30. Cardinals (-36.7)
31. Panthers (-39.5)
32. Vikings (-61) pic.twitter.com/xmLRKJYQ6P
— Steven Patton (@PattonAnalytics) March 19, 2026

Among the big hits during the last four years, according to Stick to the Model, were right tackle Zach Tom, a fourth-round pick in 2022, tight end Tucker Kraft, a third-round pick in 2023, linebacker Edgerrin Cooper, a second-round pick in 2024, and receiver Christian Watson, a second-round pick in 2022.

Two of the misses were the team’s first-round picks in 2023 and 2024, defensive end Lukas Van Ness and offensive lineman Jordan Morgan. They’ll get a chance to change their label this season, with Morgan ready to take over at left tackle following the free-agent departure of Rasheed Walker and Van Ness set to become a full-time starter after the Rashan Gary trade.

“I think he was ready last training camp,” Gutekunst said of Morgan playing left tackle. “I thought he had a really good training camp. I thought he was ready to go, and I think if we were to need him at any point in the season to play left tackle, we were very confident he could go there and play winning football. So, I think certainly if Rasheed’s not here – even if Rasheed is here – I think he’d have a pretty good crack at that.”

Hits and Misses

The 2022 draft, in particular, was excellent and received an A. The Packers drafted 11 players. The first six selections and the 10th – Quay Walker, Devonte Wyatt, Watson, Sean Rhyan, Romeo Doubs and Tom in Rounds 1 through 4 and Rasheed Walker in the seventh – were staples in the lineup for the Packers.

The 2023 draft was strong, too; the 2024 draft has a lot to prove due in part to the limited roles of the first- and third-round picks, Morgan and running back MarShawn Lloyd, and the lack of impact from the final rounds.

Despite solid drafts, the Packers remain stuck in their seventh-seed rut. One reason is that Gutekunst has constructed a roster filled with solid players but few stars. That was as true in 2020, when the Packers were coming off an unexpected trip to the NFC Championship Game, as it is today, when the only Pro Bowler was Micah Parsons and only three players were selected to Pro Football Focus’ list of the top 101 players.

While Gutekunst has done a good job of drafting solid players and finding starters, only Cooper, Kraft and Tom were deemed to be elite performers.

Contrast Green Bay’s star rate of 9 percent to 41 percent for the Lions, 24 percent for the Eagles and 22 percent for the Rams.

Gutekunst took over as general manager in 2018. The 2019 through 2021 drafts rank 14th. The 2020 draft, which was a mess beyond Jordan Love, ranks 22nd.

Big Challenge Ahead

This will be an important but challenging draft for Gutekunst, who hasn’t been in this position during his tenure and, three times, has been in the opposite position.

In 2022, Gutekunst traded Davante Adams to the Raiders, and the Packers wound up with Quay Walker, Wyatt and Watson in the first 34 picks.

In 2023, Gutekunst traded Aaron Rodgers, which resulted in bonus picks in 2023 (moving up for Van Ness in the first round and selecting tight end Luke Musgrave in the second round and kicker Anders Carlson in the sixth round) and 2024 (Cooper in the second round).

In 2026, Gutekunst won’t have a first-round pick because of the Parsons trade. He’ll have to make do with having only three picks inside the top 150. The Packers are just 30th in draft capital.

SIGN UP FOR OUR FREE DAILY PACKERS NEWSLETTER