Three Reasons Why Packers Will Lose to Vikings

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers are looking for a statement victory. The Minnesota Vikings are looking for the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs.

Here are three reasons why the Vikings will beat the Packers again, an outcome that could have significant consequences to Green Bay’s playoff positioning.

Pass Defense vs. Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson

Any hopes that the Packers were saving Jaire Alexander’s comeback game for Sunday at Minnesota were scuttled on Thursday, when coach Matt LaFleur said “Probably not” when asked if Alexander had a better chance of playing this week than last week against the Saints.

Alexander didn’t practice on Friday and, for the sixth consecutive game, the Packers will line up without their best cornerback due to a knee injury sustained two months ago at Jacksonville.

The Packers beat the Seahawks a couple weeks ago. With quarterback Geno Smith and receivers D.K. Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njiba, Seattle has a potent passing game, but Green Bay won decisively.

The problem is Sam Darnold is better than Smith, Metcalf is really good but Jefferson is on a legendary trajectory and Jordan Addison is no worse than a push against Smith-Njigba. Plus, the Vikings have a more explosive running back with Aaron Jones and a top tight end with T.J. Hockenson.

Darnold is having an all-time great season. His 12 games with a 100-plus passer rating are the most in the NFL and the most ever for a quarterback in his first year with a team.

Darnold could reach the 4,000-yard mark this week and is fourth in the league with a 105.4 passer rating. Looking deeper, he is No. 1 in passer rating when blitzed (130.1), No. 2 in play-action passer rating (136.4) and No. 3 in under-pressure passer rating (98.6), according to Pro Football Focus.

Jefferson recently became the first player in NFL history to reach 7,000 receiving yards in his first five NFL seasons. With his first catch on Sunday, he’ll probably reach 1,400 receiving yards for the fourth time in five seasons. Jerry Rice has the most such seasons with six. His 97.1 yards per game is No. 1 in NFL history. This year, he is No. 1 with 26 catches of 20-plus yards.

In his second season, Addison has caught 56 passes for 806 yards and eight touchdowns. He scored two touchdowns at Lambeau in Week 4. Over the past month, he has games of eight catches for 162 yards and one touchdown against Chicago and eight catches for 133 yards and three touchdowns against Atlanta.

“Kevin O’Connell’s done a hell of a job in a short period of time there,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “He got high-level play from Kirk (Cousins) and he’s doing the same with Sam.

“Obviously, they’ve got a ton of weapons – probably the best receiver in the game, one of the better tight ends in the game, Addison’s great, as well, Aaron Jones. They’ve got a lot of weapons. I think they’ve done a really nice job. I think they present a lot of problems with how they stress you in different ways defensively (with) their ability to run the ball and then come back with some play-action.”

If ever there were a game in which the Packers’ front four absolutely had to win, this is it.

Josh Jacobs Stopped, One-Dimensional Offense

The Packers have ridden the powerful legs and broad shoulders of running back Josh Jacobs all season. He is fourth in the NFL with 1,216 rushing yards on the strength of an eighth-ranked 3.42 yards after contact per carry.

Talk about irresistible force beating the immovable object. Jacobs will be running into the teeth of a Vikings defense that ranks second in rushing yards allowed per game (87.1) and per carry (3.88).

“They have a lot of guys in the box and they kind of play from the front end to the back end as far as they’ll still be in two-high but they’ll have guys down at the line of scrimmage and then they’ll bail out, but in the run game they’ll be down there,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said.

“They do a good job moving up front. There’s a lot of movements that create advantageous looks for them or open guys. And then the pressure, they bring guys from every direction, so they can create a lot of negative plays if you’re mistargeted or if you don’t see a guy blitzing and you’re not ready for it. It’s a big challenge and these guys do a really good job, so it will be a fun game for us.”

Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores knows the starting point of Green Bay’s offense.

“It’s the running back,” Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores told reporters this week when asked about the starting point of Green Bay’s run game. “I think Josh Jacobs is one of the best in the league. Great vision. He’s a physical runner, breaks a lot of tackles, tough to tackle in space. Does a good job in the pass game, as well.

“They’ve got a good offensive line. The tight ends block, the receivers block. It’s a cohesive unit. Matt’s done a great job of getting them all to buy into, ‘We’re going to run the football and everybody’s a big part of that.’ They do a great job, but the back is one of the best in the league.”

Stopping the run is the name of the game for the Vikings, because that allows Flores to dive into his extensive blitz packages and straight into …

Third Down and Red Zone

These are the areas where games are won and lost. The Vikings are 16th in total defense and 30th against the pass but are third in points allowed.

Why?

Because Minnesota is dominant on third down (second, 33.7 percent conversions) and fourth down (first, 36.7 percent conversions) as well as goal-to-go situations (second, 58.8 percent touchdowns).

“Just at the level at which they are going out there and causing problems,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “You see it all the time, whether it’s getting sacks on the quarterback, getting hits on the quarterback, getting pressures, forcing the quarterbacks to make bad decisions.

“They can do it out of a variety of different personnels, and they could be out there in one personnel grouping and line up five different ways. It’s the interchangeable pieces and the versatility of those pieces to go play many different positions, where it’s complex for us but it’s easy for them.”

The problem for opposing offenses if the run game isn’t working is that they might beat Flores’ blitzes a few times on third-and-long but not often enough to get into the end zone. Eventually, one of the best pass rushes in the NFL will get home on third down. Or a ballhawking defense, which is No. 1 with 22 interceptions and 88 passes defensed, will make a big play.

The average third down against Flores’ defense requires 8.1 yards. That’s tied with Detroit for the longest in the league. The Vikings have a league-high eight interceptions on third down.

The last two weeks, the Bears and Seahawks went a combined 3-of-22 on third down against the Vikings.

This season, the Packers are up to 11th in red zone (59.7 percent touchdowns), thanks to 21-of-28 (75.0 percent) in the six games since the bye.

However, Green Bay’s offense is a mediocre 14th on third down (38.6 percent conversions). It went 4-of-12 (33.3 percent) against Minnesota in Week 4. The Chiefs lead the NFL with a season-long success rate of 50.0 percent. The Packers haven’t hit that mark since Week 6 against Arizona.

Jordan Love’s 51.0 percent completion rate on third down is the third-lowest among quarterbacks with at least 30 third-down attempts.

That is not going to get it done on Sunday.

The Packers have scored 30-plus points in five consecutive games. That’s the longest current streak in the NFL and the team’s longest since 1963. And yet during those games, Green Bay is 23-of-54 (42.6 percent) on third down. That’s 12th in the league – good but hardly great.

If the Packers finally can find another gear on third down, that would be the difference between a really good offense and a Super Bowl-winning offense. But, given the late stage of the season, is that a realistic next step or wishful thinking?

“We always strive to be as consistent as possible and going out there and making those plays, and the second half there were a couple plays that we’re just a little bit off,” Love said on Thursday in reflecting upon the performance in the 34-0 rout of the Saints.

“So, it always motivates us, whether we’re putting up all these points or not putting up all these points to go out there and be our best. Definitely some plays that we left out there, so we want to get back to putting up a lot of points.”

Given the state of the Packers’ secondary, Love and Co. might need to put up a lot of points on Sunday.

Latest Green Bay Packers News

The #Packers are 0-4 against the NFC's heavyweights.

Here are three reasons why that breakthrough victory will come on Sunday against the Vikings. ⬇️https://t.co/ctmXGA2Tlt
— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) December 28, 2024