Skip to main content
Packer Central

Three Stats That Show Why Packers Could Be In Big Trouble Against Bears

The Green Bay Packers could right a lot of wrongs by beating the Chicago Bears on Sunday. Based on these three stats, that’s going to be a difficult challenge.
Bill Huber|
Chicago Bears running back Kyle Monangai (25) runs for a first down against the Packers last season.
Chicago Bears running back Kyle Monangai (25) runs for a first down against the Packers last season. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

In this story:

Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – For the Green Bay Packers, this will be their big opportunity.

On Sunday, the sputtering Packers will face the rival Chicago Bears. The game will be played at Lambeau Field, where the Packers beat the Bears last season. And the Bears will be playing with backup quarterback Tyson Bagent as Caleb Williams will miss a third consecutive game with a hamstring injury.

A victory could be a season-changing achievement for the Packers. Imagine, after a difficult first quarter of the season, they would be 3-2 and in second place in the NFC North.

It won’t be easy. The Packers will have to overcome these statistical mismatches.

1. The Big Picture

Only one game separates the teams in the NFC North standings, but the tale of the statistical tape shows a different reality.

The Bears have outscored their opponents by 47 points, or 11.8 points per game. That’s the third-biggest point differential in the league. They are plus-six in net touchdowns, trailing only San Francisco in the NFC.

The Packers have been outscored by 32 points, or 8.0 points per game. That’s the fourth-biggest negative point differential in the league. They are minus-five in net touchdowns, better than only Arizona in the NFC.

Both teams beat the Jets. Green Bay scored the final 13 points and won in overtime 20-17 at New York in Week 2. The Bears with Tyson Bagent at quarterback won 23-12 at home last week. The stats from the games show the difference in the teams.

Yards gained on offense: Green Bay, 199; Chicago, 492.

Yards allowed on defense: Green Bay, 285; Chicago, 157.

Net passing yards allowed: Green Bay, 218; Chicago, 98.

Rushing offense: Green Bay, 63; Chicago, 232.

Third-down offense: Green Bay, 1-for-9; Chicago, 7-for-15.

Third-down defense: Green Bay, 8-for-19; Chicago, 0-for-7.

Time of possession: Green Bay, 26:57; Chicago, 42:45.

The numbers show teams that are on a completely different trajectory.

After the game on Sunday, coach Matt LaFleur seemed annoyed even in victory. On Monday, LaFleur said, “What makes you say I was annoyed?”

When told it was his focus on the negative things, LaFleur replied: “I think there was a lot of things to build upon.”

But then, without missing a beat, he went right back to the negative.

“The one thing that I’d tell you is when you have opportunities, you have to capitalize on them, especially in this league. It’s so competitive and, certainly, the penalties are inexcusable. Putting the ball on the ground is inexcusable, especially when you have an opportunity to make a game a two-score game.

“That’s stuff that we have to absolutely clean up. I told the guys that whoever holds that ball, you hold it for everybody in the organization. Every player, their families, we’re all dependent on that. You can drill it, you can do ball-security drills all you want, but you have to have the mindset and you’ve got to have good fundamentals when you do it, as well. But we can’t be doing stuff like that.”

He’s right, obviously. The Packers can’t beat a good team until they stop beating themselves. 

2. Running Games

The Bears are first in the NFL in rushing with 196.3 yards per game. The Falcons, who routed the Packers at Lambeau a couple weeks ago, are second with 181.0 rushing yards per game. The Bears also are fourth with 4.94 yards per carry.

The Packers are last in the NFL with 58.0 rushing yards per game and 31st with 3.18 yards per carry. That puts them on a 17-game pace of 986 rushing yards. The lowest number since the 1970 merger was the 1970 Boston Patriots, who rushed for 1,040 yards in a 14-game season. The lowest 16-game total was the 2000 Chargers with 1,062 rushing yards.

MarShawn Lloyd leads the Packers with 81 rushing yards, or a season pace of 344 yards. That would be the lowest team-leading total since Michael Haddix’s 311 yards in 1990.

“I think – and he’ll probably tell you that, too – that there’s more out there,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said on Tuesday of Lloyd. “The one run that I saw that got me excited was a third-and-1. We ran an inside zone to the right, he bounced it left, made a guy miss and just had a really nice play. That’s kind of what I’m expecting to see from him, so that was good to see him just create a play like that. It was really good.”

An occasional run with vision and acceleration provides some hope but what the Packers need is production. Much better production. Much more consistent production.

The Packers have 232 rushing yards. The Bears have almost 3.5 times that number with 785. Their dynamic duo of Kyle Monangai (324 rushing yards) and D’Andre Swift (311) are two of the 17 individuals with more rushing yards than the Packers have as a team.

“For most of the day, it felt like we were moving the line of scrimmage,” Bears tight end Cole Kmet said after the Jets game. “When we’re doing that, we’re pretty tough to beat. … I know everyone loves the flashy plays. But, at the end of the day, it’s about how physical you are up front. That’s what we pride ourselves on.”

The rushing numbers play into what’s next.

3. Third Down

A picture is worth a thousand words. So is this third-down graphic.

The Packers are last in the NFL in third-down offense. By a wide margin. They’ve converted 26.1 percent of their third-down opportunities; Seattle is next at 31.1 percent. Rather incredibly, even with better offensive line play, Green Bay was actually worse last week against Tampa Bay (2-of-10, 20.0 percent) than it had been all season.

The Packers’ conversion rate would be the 12th lowest since the NFL began keeping that data in 1972.

The Bears are second in the league in third-down defense, according to the official league stats. Opponents are converting only 23.7 percent of the time, just behind Minnesota’s 22.6 percent. As noted above, they pitched a third-down shutout against the Jets.

Looking at the defenses, the Packers have allowed 29 third-down conversions while the Bears have allowed only nine, even though opponents are facing similar down-and-distances.

SIGN UP FOR OUR FREE DAILY PACKERS NEWSLETTER

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Loading recommendations... Please wait while we load personalized content recommendations

Published
Bill Huber
BILL HUBER

Bill Huber, who has covered the Green Bay Packers since 2008, is the publisher of Packers On SI, a Sports Illustrated channel. E-mail: packwriter2002@yahoo.com History: Huber took over Packer Central in August 2019. Twitter: https://twitter.com/BillHuberNFL Background: Huber graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, where he played on the football team, in 1995. He worked in newspapers in Reedsburg, Wisconsin Dells and Shawano before working at The Green Bay News-Chronicle and Green Bay Press-Gazette from 1998 through 2008. With The News-Chronicle, he won several awards for his commentaries and page design. In 2008, he took over as editor of Packer Report Magazine, which was founded by Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Nitschke, and PackerReport.com. In 2019, he took over the new Sports Illustrated site Packer Central, which he has grown into one of the largest sites in the Sports Illustrated Media Group.