Do Bye Weeks Actually Matter? Unexpected Truth Before Packers-Bengals

GREEN BAY, Wis. – A bye week should mean fresh legs and fresh ideas. Healthier bodies and a healthier mindset. A chance to self-scout and self-correct.

Added together, common sense suggests teams coming off their bye weeks – like the Green Bay Packers will do on Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals – should flourish.

The reality doesn’t quite match those narratives, though.

It is true that teams coming off their bye win more than they lose. Since 2019 – Year 1 under coach Matt LaFleur – teams are 102-91-1 immediately after their bye, according to Stathead. That’s a winning percentage of .528. That beats the alternative, obviously, but it’s not an overwhelming advantage, either. It’s the equivalent of a 9-8 record.

The Packers are 4-2-1 after their bye under LaFleur, who downplayed the ability the bye week provides to do deep-dive analyses that could change a season.

“I think that’s probably (a) misnomer,” he said on Wednesday. “I think most teams, if you’re staying up on it, you’re consistently doing that. The one thing I would tell you, though, I think it allows you and affords you more time, obviously, to go back and watch everything.

“I’m all for analytics and the information, I think it’s great, but I think it’s only telling you the end result. It’s not telling you the why behind either we’re having success in this or we’re not. So, I think you always got to go back to the tape and really study the tape, dive into the tape. And I think when you do that, you’re watching and you’re like, OK, we showed this on tape, and you start thinking of other ideas that you can play off of different things that you may or may not have put on tape. And that’s for every phase.”

Whether it will mean anything for Sunday remains to be seen, but running back Josh Jacobs has noticed a difference following the week off.

“You can hear the energy in the building,” he said. “It’s always weird when you got a bye week this early, but to know that a lot of guys we have been banged up, it kind of came right on time for a lot of people. To be able to have that bye and to come out swinging is the thing we trying to do right now.”

The bye did mean a potentially healthier roster for Sunday, though you might not know it with a look at the mile-long injury report. Right tackle Zach Tom and left guard Aaron Banks, who were sidelined by injuries in Week 2, couldn’t get through Week 3 and were inactive again in Week 4, could be back in the lineup.

“It’s huge,” Banks said. “The bye week at any point in the year is always helpful and we had a lot of guys banged up early on in the season so of course we’ve got 13-plus [consecutive weeks of games] from here out, but just getting healthy to go on that run I think was really important for the team.”

Teams in 2024 were just 15-17 after their bye – so maybe the Eagles having their bye before coming to Lambeau Field next month won’t be an enormous disadvantage for Green Bay – but were 20-12 in 2023.

The Packers are 14.5-point favorites this week at FanDuel Sportsbook – a historically huge spread that didn’t change after the Bengals acquired quarterback Joe Flacco. According to FanDuel Research, favorites cover just 45.5 percent of the time after their bye.

For Green Bay, a few big plays were the difference between a 4-0 record and their 2-1-1 mark, between being in first place to falling behind the Lions, who are 4-1.

“Just coming off this bye week, I think everybody’s locked in for this stretch of games we’re going to have,” quarterback Jordan Love said. “We’re focused on just taking it one week at a time, starting here at Lambeau with the Bengals.”

Of course, a bye isn’t only about the first game after a week off. Under LaFleur, the Packers are 33-14 in games played after the bye, a .702 winning percentage. By season, it’s 5-3 in 2024, 7-5 in 2023, 3-1 in 2022, 4-1 in 2021, 9-3 in 2020 and 5-1 in 2019. The Packers are 36-20-1 before the bye during that span, a winning percentage of .640.

Green Bay got off a dominating start with key wins over Detroit and Washington. However, a woeful offensive performance and a blocked kick led to an upset loss at Cleveland and a terrible defensive performance and a blocked kick led to a tie at Dallas.

The Packers have played a lot of good football. The room to improve has LaFleur excited for what’s to come.

“I think the No. 1 thing, even whether it’s win or loss or tie, I don’t think we’ve put together a complete game playing four quarters of complementary football, which is a blessing and a curse at the same time,” LaFleur said. “It’s great, the fact that we’re far from our best football, so there’s a lot to improve upon. And certainly, that’s what you’re always striving for is to get that figured out.”

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