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Will Packers Fire Matt LaFleur? Here’s What Kalshi Predicts

Here’s the latest on Packers coach Matt LaFleur’s future following a 1-2 start and some horrendous trends.
Bill Huber|
Green Bay Packers coach Matt LaFleur's team is off to a 1-2 start.
Green Bay Packers coach Matt LaFleur's team is off to a 1-2 start. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

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Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – In the wake of the Green Bay Packers’ humiliating loss to the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday, the heat under the seat of coach Matt LaFleur has been cranked back up.

At least in the prediction markets.

According to Kalshi as of Monday morning, there is a 63.6 percent chance that LaFleur will no longer be the team’s head coach on March 1. His counterpart for Sunday’s game at Tampa Bay, Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles, is the overwhelming favorite at 95 percent.

In the next-coach-out odds, Bowles is at 69.4 percent and LaFleur is next at 16.2 percent.

Before the Sunday games, LaFleur also was given a 63.6 percent probability of being ousted by March 1. That’s actually down, with emotions having cooled in the aftermath of a 35-14 loss. The odds were 81.9 percent immediately after the game and got as high as 86 percent.

In the next-coach-out odds, Bowles was first on Sunday morning at 44 percent, followed by the Commanders’ Dan Quinn at 40 percent and LaFleur at 22 percent. The Buccaneers, however, lost to the Vikings to fall to 0-3 while the Commanders upset the Seahawks to take Quinn off the betting hot seat.

For LaFleur, that market peaked at 75 percent after the game, retreated to 3 percent on Saturday and bounced back up on Sunday before falling a bit on Monday.

Reality Check

The reality, of course, is the betting markets are speculative in nature and have no insight into what Packers President and CEO Ed Policy is thinking. Does he have buyer’s remorse following last year’s contract extensions?  Or is he confident he’s got the right men in place to get the team turned around?

The dial on LaFleur’s hot seat was cranked up to 11 after last year’s stunning collapse in which the Packers lost their final five games, including the playoff debacle against the Bears. Instead of firing LaFleur and/or general manager Brian Gutekunst, Policy gave them the best-possible votes of confidence by rewarding them with new deals.

“While we are all disappointed with the way this season ended, we remain aligned in purpose and have spent considerable time over the past weeks collaborating on a path forward,” Policy said in a team statement at the time.

“I am exceedingly confident we have the right people to achieve our goal. The entire Packers organization looks forward to supporting every effort to bring our community and fans another championship that they very much deserve.”

The Packers appear to be in full-scale retreat in the championship race, though. They imploded in the fourth quarter of the opener against Minnesota, turning a 22-10 lead into a 39-22 loss over the final 20 minutes. They rallied to beat the woeful Jets in Week 2 but got destroyed in front of a national television audience and about 77,000 disgruntled fans at Lambeau Field on Thursday.

The Packers took a 7-0 lead but melted into a tub of goo after Brenton Cox’s roughing-the-passer penalty on third-and-long on the ensuing possession. The Falcons turned that penalty into a touchdown, part of a run of 27 consecutive points that raised questions deeper than LaFleur’s one-sided play-calling.

“I don’t want to say that was the reason that we lost,” LaFleur said of the penalty after the game. “They had 500 yards of offense (and) we had whatever it was. It was a butt-whoopin’. I’m not going to put it on one thing. Certainly, we definitely have to respond better, but that was at least a three-quarter butt-whoopin’ right there.”

Butt-whoopin’, indeed.

At least they addressed a major need.

Matt LaFleur’s Horrendous Trend

After two strong games by first-year coordinator Jonathan Gannon’s defense, the Packers allowed 498 yards vs. Atlanta – the third-most of the LaFleur era. The 21-point margin was the fourth-largest overall and the largest in a home game.

The team’s nine carries, 17 rushing yards and 1.9-yard average were all the worst marks in his tenure.

The Packers were outrushed by 225 yards, the third-worst game in the LaFleur era.

It’s all part of a damning trend. The Packers were 9-3-1 when Micah Parsons suffered his torn ACL at Denver. Including the game, the Packers are 1-7 without him. They’ve been outscored by 83 points during that span.

Limiting it to just the seven regular-season games spanning Week 15 of last season through Week 3 of this season, the Packers are 29th in point differential at minus-79.

LaFleur said the players would get the weekend to “decompress” and refocus for the next stretch of games. Ignoring the outside “noise” would be critical, he said, following what was practically an all-around inept performance by his team.

Publicly, he remained upbeat because of the character in the locker room.

“I just think we’ve got the right kind of guys that aren’t afraid of the work, that aren’t afraid of the challenge, that aren’t afraid to attack adversity, and I fully anticipate our guys doing that,” he said.

All Is Not Lost

The Packers are 1-2. Five teams have won the Super Bowl following a 1-2 start, most recently the Patriots in 2018. The Giants in 2007, when they beat the Packers at Lambeau Field in the NFC Championship Game, did, as well.

The Houston Texans started 0-3 last season and rallied to the playoffs. Four other teams started 1-2 and reached the playoffs, including last year’s Patriots, who won the AFC, and last year’s Bears, who won the NFC North.

“Long season,” tight end Tucker Kraft said. “We’re three games in, we’ve dropped to NFC opponents, so head on a swivel in this game. Guys are too good in this league to make mistakes like we were out there on the field. That’s how we get behind constantly.

“We just got to rally, stay connected, we can’t let external noise divide us. Us guys in this locker room, we’re really all we got. We spend a lot of time together. So just continue to stay close and build off each other.”

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Bill Huber
BILL HUBER

Bill Huber, who has covered the Green Bay Packers since 2008, is the publisher of Packers On SI, a Sports Illustrated channel. E-mail: packwriter2002@yahoo.com History: Huber took over Packer Central in August 2019. Twitter: https://twitter.com/BillHuberNFL Background: Huber graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, where he played on the football team, in 1995. He worked in newspapers in Reedsburg, Wisconsin Dells and Shawano before working at The Green Bay News-Chronicle and Green Bay Press-Gazette from 1998 through 2008. With The News-Chronicle, he won several awards for his commentaries and page design. In 2008, he took over as editor of Packer Report Magazine, which was founded by Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Nitschke, and PackerReport.com. In 2019, he took over the new Sports Illustrated site Packer Central, which he has grown into one of the largest sites in the Sports Illustrated Media Group.