Carolina Panthers May Regress and Hit Under Win Total, But Not By Much

The Carolina Panthers have one of the hardest schedules in the NFL, which, of course, was expected after winning the NFC South, even with just an 8-9 record. Despite the hard schedule, the Panthers still have opportunities to impress, and build off last season's division title.

The Panthers' over/under on wins opened at 6.5 and has since moved to 7.5 on sportsbooks such as DraftKings and FanDuel. With the harder schedule, a seven-win season feels like a real possibility. Seven wins is not going to be satisfactory for Carolina, it's nowhere near the goal, but it still means Carolina would have some great wins on the season.

Panthers Schedule Breakdown

Bryce Young after scoring a touchdown against the Seahawk — Dec 28, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) runs in for a score against the Seattle Seahawks during the second half at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

The Panthers play six teams that made the Playoffs last season: the Chicago Bears, Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks, and Pittsburgh Steelers.

Four of those teams feel like playoff locks for this upcoming season: the Bears, Packers, Broncos, and Seahawks, while the Eagles and Steelers could be close calls due to roster changes or their divisions getting better.

On top of those games, the Panthers face off against the Detroit Lions on Sunday Night Football, and the Baltimore Ravens. Both teams have playoff expectations and have been postseason staples over the last two years, leading up to 2025.

Division Wins More Important Than Ever

Dave Canales and Todd Bowle — Dec 21, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers head coach Dave Canales greets Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles after a game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

With the rest of the Panthers' schedule looking like a gauntlet, the division wins are going to matter even more in 2026. The Panthers cant be swept by any of their divison opponents this year like they were by the New Orleans Saints last season.

With the reloaded defense for Carolina, they shouldn't be swept by any other NFC South team. The Panthers should have the best defense in the division on paper, adding Jaelan Phillips as the primary pass rusher, and adding Devin Lloyd to cover the middle of the field, which Carolina was awful at last season.

The Panthers still have one of the better corner duos in the entire NFL as well, with Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson covering opposing teams' best receivers.

The Panthers should sweep the Falcons just as they did last season; there are too many question marks in their QB room. Tampa and New Orleans will be tough matchups as well, but there's no reason Carolina can't at least split with both, and win each of the home matchups against them.

Panthers Path to 7 Wins

Bryce Young and Dave Canales after beating the Falcon — Nov 16, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Carolina Panthers head coach Dave Canales hugs Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) after the game against the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The Panthers should start the year 2-1, winning the weeks two and three matchups against the Atlanta Falcons and the now Myles Garrett-less Cleveland Browns. A Week 1 upset against the Chicago Bears would really set the tone, but it's going to be a tough spot for Carolina.

After Week 3 is where the schedule really ramps up, facing off against the Detroit Lions in Week 4, and then on the road in Philadelphia in Week 6. A key stretch for the Panthers will be at the end of the year, when three of the last four games are at home, including one against the Saints.

If Carolina can at least split with each division rival, that's three wins, and it should be four with a sweep of Atlanta. Then add a win against the Browns on the road to make five. After that, some upsets will have to happen. Carolina should be able to compete with teams like the Steelers, the Vikings, and the Philadelphia Eagles, depending on how much the AJ Brown trade affects them.

Carolina, topping out at seven wins this season, isn't out of the question. If Bryce Young can take another step forward, then Carolina will get over the 7.5 mark they're currently listed at; if not, then the defense will keep Carolina in games while Bryce remains inconsistent.

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